The graph doesn't align with the commentary above it. Or your commentary. The 2 lines were closing in on each other throughout most of the Biden presidency and have been moving more or less parallel to each other for nearly a year now.
I have a feeling that if it weren't for all the money being dropped into AI, we would be in a recession already; likely we would be there by December.
From Kathy Jones of Schwab, on X Jobs report comes in weaker than expected with nonfarm payrolls up only 22K and two month downward revisions subtract 21K. Three month nonfarm payrolls avg 29K. Unemp rate 4.3% vs 4.2% and under employment rate up to 8.1% highest since 2021.
Unemployment rate slowly creeping up. March: 4.152% April: 4.187% May: 4.244% June: 4.117% July: 4.248% August: 4.324%
ICE just raided a Hyundai Battery plant in GA. Somewhere between 450 to 560 people detained depending on the sources you read. Lots of S.Korean nationals. Trumponomics.
It's honestly shocking we're not officially in a recession now. All the numbers are, more or less, saying we are or will be very soon. Grocery prices are climbing, gas prices shot up throughout the summer, unemployment is climbing, the job market is in the toilet, more and more people living off of credit cards. There's no light coming from the end of this tunnel.
Since a recession is largely defined as 2 quarters of negative growth, it is not surprising we are not technically in a recession now.
What does the Trump administration have against South Korea? They banned Samsung from semiconductor work with China, and now going after a Hyundai owned plant. I'm suspicious...
For clarity: The stock market != economy. Job market? Also not in the toilet, but it is just over the last couple of months that you are seeing downward trends.
Since January, the amount of people I know that lost their jobs and haven't been hired elsewhere keeps climbing. It's not going to improve outside of some seasonal positions opening up for November and December.
I agree it looks bleak. However, those trends haven’t resulted in overall negative growth quite yet. I know, that is little comfort to you and your friends and those unemployed, underemployed, or underpaid. But these things have definitions that have not yet been met.
We're going to have fewer seasonal jobs, since kids will have to get only 1 toy for Christmas, as Dear Leader ordered suggested.
We are definetely going to have more openings in farms... I'm some guessing POCs and some whitelandians will be compelled to take those, as part of some re-education program.