The job market, inflation and tariffs

That's only because he DOGEd is toilet paper supply.

 

Thought I said somewhere that both the Nikkei (Japan) and KOPSI (South Korea) have been booming over the past 12 months.

Nikkei


KOPSI

 

Those last 6 months are going to be tariff related. And a segment of the past year is the memory chip area.

 

And the buying and selling of treasuries.

 

Trade deficit is getting...the same. Those tariffs are really working. Number out today is is $901b, and improvement from $904b.

 

It's a data point of buying and selling of treasuries. And it's complicated. See that the Belgium number is rather big, but suggests that a significant amount was bought for third parties. Mind, a lot of people have been freaking out about China selling, but that is not necessarily an overall problem.

 

Philly Manufacturing Survey. Top line 16.3 v. expected of 10.0 (I've also seen 7.3). Generally, a good sign. And notable it is both positive and above the January number. But the pattern has been up/down, so not reading too much into the top line number.



But, there are some numbers worth noting.
Both Prices Paid and Prices Received dropped from Jan. I'd say that is a good inflation data point...
But, New Orders dropped, and Shipments dramatically dropped. New Orders are above Dec, but Shipments are below Dec.
What I would like to know more about is the unfilled orders. As it is negative, I'm assuming that is cancelled contracts, but not really sure.
And concerning is both Number of Employees and Average Workweek. I'd also like to know about wages.

 

As irritating as it is to see this day after day, it is one of their own, plus an old woman that has gone missing, and so many of us are in related situations. That said, I don't watch network TV, so I am able to skip most reporting. Basically, all I see are headlines.

 

It is the reason it has dominated for so long. But if this had been a husband or brother or something like that, would have dropped off. The part that her mom is old had has dementia (Alzheimer's?) is something that a lot of people can relate to, and would worry about.

 

So, data out today (1 of 3)



GDP down, and it has been suggested the the shutdown took a full point off the GDP number. Still would be down from Q3, but a full point is big.
And that is likely reflected in the Government consumption number. Here's a breakdown.

 

More data (2/3)

GDP components



That Government spending mentioned above clearly shows here that the federal shutdown was the cause.
Interesting that exports dropped even considering that the dollar has dropped.

 

Post 3/3

Regarding the tariffs, I don't expect it to move prices much. This was expected, but Trump still has other means to raise tariffs and those effected are probably going to wait and see before acting. Next quarters numbers will be interesting.