Pre-match: The inevitable war with Iran

No. You quite disgustingly ignored what Iran is doing.
Can you explain to me why you're ignoring the fact that Iran is bombing residential neighborhoods and hospitals?

 

Hamas caused Israel to bomb Iran? The rationalization is through the roof.

 

What's it gonna cost us? We are always broke I'm told

 

well, whats clearly not worked in Israel’s favor is standing by and trying to ignore the elephant in the living room. We’ve been dealing with this Iranian mullah regime for 45 years, we know what they’re about. They’re about death and destruction of Israel and any country that would support Israel. They’ve been agitating for conflict forever, but relied on others to achieve their objectives. Now they’re being confronted directly (long overdue in my opinion) and so far at least they’ve been failing, dramatically. I’d love to see the Iranian people stand up and determine a better course for themselves, with more rights and less oppression, and more opportunity. But it’s for the Iranians to decided. But if their nuclear threat is reduced and their ability to harass Israel and the west is significantly lessened, that for me will be a positive development.

 

That wasn’t the question.

 

I'm all in favour of the misogynic ayatollahs being removed from power and that theocracy being transformed into a democracy.
However it's being ignorant and delusional to think, after the erasing of Gaza and the by the west supported genocidal decimation of innocent Gaza people, that Iranians arenot going to remember the by the west supported mass murder by saddam and the Gaza images confirming that you can't trust the west and the only way to be sure you are safe from willy nilly attacks, is having a nuke.
Bibi and Trump have been a massive anti anti-proliferation treaty campaign.
Anybody believing things going back to normality after the last two years is believing in fairytales.
Edit: Kim and North Korea with Ukraine are the living examples of the difference between having or not (anymore) nukes.

 

The most likely scenario of the collapse of the Iranian regime would be the creation of a number of highly unstable and violent groups in their place with most of them thinking the ayatollahs were too weak to be effective in fighting Israel and the west.

 

I don’t think we can possibly know this.

 

I already mentioned misinformation being spread a few posts ago trying to stirr things up and in this Indian efforts to do so is being exposed:
https://www.dawn.com/news/1917891

 

Do you?
Just show us in which cases it went swell?
Tunesia? Lybia? Iraq? Iran?

 

you might be underestimating the will of the Iranian people, I hope so.

 

The will of the Iranian people depends on where you are in Iran. In the cities the will is to get rid of the ayatollahs (my guess), in the rural parts the opposite opinion. Then you have the parts that arenot Iranian ethnically, but Arabic or Kurds.
So there's no homogenic Iran with one will, on the contrary.

 

One of those groups are present on both sides of the Pakistan/Iran border, and home of jihadist movements.
So good luck with creating a new terrorist haven.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china...stive-border-if-iran-destabilised-2025-06-19/



ISLAMABAD (Reuters) -Separatist and jihadist militants on the Pakistan-Iran border could take advantage of any collapse of authority in Iran, fears that Pakistan’s army chief pressed in a meeting this week with the U.S. President Donald Trump.

Anti-Iranian and anti-Pakistan outfits operate on both sides of the 560-mile (900km) long border. As Israel bombs Iran's nuclear program, its officials have repeatedly indicated that they are seeking to destabilize the Iranian government or see it toppled.

 

Bibi's desire not to die in prison (as he should) is a danger to the average Israeli as Trump's abject stupidity is to the average American.

 

LOL I think you need to go back and reread the posts in question. They aren’t talking about “swell” or “not swell.”

 

@teammellieIRANfan gave you a very candid response. My response to you is contained in my message: "Israel cannot win this war through what they excel at the most, namely propaganda and assassination." I don't care to expand and explain how that relates to what you said as that would be a fruitless exercise.

 

American on American? I don’t think so. But the US has used the deaths of Americans to justify a war, or escalation of a war…

Never forget the Americans that died in the Alamo were the oro-slavery rebels and the Mexican Army was putting down an insurrection. While it took place 10 years prior to the Mexican-American War, it was still used as propaganda to build support for the US war with Mexico.

The USS Maine that blew up in Cuba was used to fan the flames of war that led to the Spanish-American War. The US press claimed it was a deliberate attack by Spain, when the evidence suggested it was either an accidental mine impact or an internal explosion caused by an accident in the Maine’s magazine.

The Gulf of Tonkin incident was actually a US covert operation near N. Vietnam territory where the US fired the first shots and then created a second attack whole cloth. This was then used to justify increased US involvement in the Vietnam War.

The US invaded Granada under the pre-text of protecting 600 American medical students following a coup where the Communist government was overthrown by the military.

And who can forget the greatest false flag in history… The bombing of Pearl Harbor. Are we to seriously believe that Japan was able to sneak an entire carrier fleet across the Pacific Ocean without the US knowing it was coming?????

 

Yeah, I have a masters in history. I already know all those. None of those are false flags.

QED

 

Elsewhere, someone asked me what does "winning" or "losing" mean in the context of this war. This was my response:

The main impediments to Iran becoming a nuclear power are within Iran. Those impediments revolve around a (1) foreign backed "influencers" within and outside Iran's government whose agenda is to make deals and take measures that effectively preclude Iran from developing a nuclear deterrent; (2) a decision by Iran's Supreme Leader that would allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons. Iran winning means this war ultimately ending with Iran becoming an accepted nuclear power.

The main objective and agenda of Israel/neocons is to bring about an implosion that would turn Iran into a much weakened (failed) state (preferably disintegrated). If they achieve this, it means they have won and Iran has lost.

Objectively, the chances of this current war ending in "stalemate" may appear to be the highest, but that will merely postpone the inevitable. For me any "deals"/stalemate means Iran will eventually lose.

 

What leverage is that? To stop even more crushing sanctions from being imposed?

 

From the Daily Show - yet you have posters desperately using mental gymnastics to rationalize the justification of an illegal war when the main reason is very clear.



**President Clinton is antisemitic and hates the West

 

So after more and more sites/infrastructure are destroyed it means more Mossad cells in Iran?

I see videos of Israeli claims and trust me bros from Iran. Any word of when we can see the F35s and the "female pilot"?

This means we do not get the usual "Irans people are against the Mullahs" claim that people usually bring out in these situations? That is great!
No more "HAMAS do no represent the people of Palestine"?

Iranian people are for the current regime. Got it!

You are so full of it. You always say if this happens or that happens it means this or that. But you never come back to them.

Whatever happens you will find new ways to cope. This is you 1 year ago.

Israel feeling emboldened against Iran, or, alternatively, feeling much more constrained attacking Iranian targets, will be the true test of the success or failure of Iran's operation. The rest is spin and propaganda.

So please tell me Israel attacking Iran means Iran's operation [April 2024] was a big fat failure??

 

As I said earlier, I have refrained from posting much in this thread because it has mostly been hot air.

But I will take a genuine shot at giving an insight to Iranian strategic thinking and calculations, and my realpolitik perspective. This comes from observations and having to listened to interviews by IRGC commanders.

The TP1 and TP2 were failures. They think so as well. Not on the account of the operations not causing damage. Which they largely didnt. Those operations were meant to tap Israeli (or proximity) of important Israeli site letting israel know they could penetrate all layers of israeli air defence. To set deterrence parameters.

But those operations failed (which is evident now) to establish deterrence. Which has led up to this surprise attack, which Iran considers a major act of perfidy on the part of both the US and Israel, as the so called negotiations appear to have been a ruse to catch Iran off guard with a surprise attack for israel to get a headstart.
A lot of blame has gone to the reformist camp because their periods of inaction led to Israel becoming more emboldended which resulted in Iran taking major hits regionally with the decomation of Hezbollah etc.
The reformist camp are also largely blamed for the downfall of Assad in Syria. The IRGC (Soleimani in particular) wanted to finish of the syrian opposition when they were concetrated in a wahabi fiefdom in Idlib. The political faction of the reformists won the argument politically which led to the tripartite agreement of Astana between Iran, Russia and Turkey. The results of which has turned disastrous for Iran, as we see today.
So all in all, this has led to a marginalization/delegitimasion of the reformist camp.

Anyway, Iran views this as a Pearl Harbor event. And they view the war in existensial terms. They are on record saying that they will wage this war in a manner, so that when the conflict does finally end, it will end so that the next Israeli government will not contemplate such an attack ever again. To make it economically, strategically and politically unviable. That point has not been reached, needless to say. A lot of factors going into this. The first and foremost being whether or not the US get involved.
Iran has been very catious to not drag in the US, in spite of their complicity, because it would for obvious reasons be very destructive.

But the US seriously considering getting involved now (and maybe even probably) tells me the war effort is not going all that well for the israelis. Every critical nuclear infrastructure remains largely intact including enrichment capabilities.
This has become a war of attrition and which is not good news for israel. Both sides taking hits, although we will never know the extent of the damage on the israeli side as they have imposed a strict military censorship.

A lot of the videos circulating around are also either fake/AI or israel hitting decoys. A few videos (posted by the idf) have even been duplicates of the same target.

Anyway, Iran was paralyzed for a good few hours of the surprise attack, but they have replaced all the commanders and gotten their command and control in order.
The methods that seem to be used are a combination of saturation attacks with older missiles, drones. And then a gradual reveal and introduction of newer generation missiles. The last couple of days, Iran have actually fired a smaller number or burst of missiles with a higher hit rate, which may be indicative of either israel running short of interceptor stocks or more probably Iran using the newer generation of missiles.

Short of US involvement, I dont believe this war will not go as Israel has hoped. They will probably take out the supreme leader Ali Khamenei, but I dont see any evidence of that dealing a blow to the ethos of the Iranian regime.
Iran has also put the political onus of ending the war on Israel, by saying the war and attacks from Iran will stop once Israel stops.
We will not see the fallout strategically from this war until we see the consequenses long after it ends. But if the US does not get involved, then Israel may have commited a catastrophic strategic mistake. Perhaps fatal. Not talking about in terms of material damage, but israels position regionally and its viability as a political entity.