Pre-match: The inevitable war with Iran

The kind that doesnot exist according to these sewer rats like

 

Iranian regime change

 

The joke was me saying I wasn’t sure which regime you were referring to.

 

That wouldnot change the urge to get nukes. Iran feels threatened by Israel's nukes, but also by the Sunni nuke power Pakistan.

 

From the Carnegie Institute's Karim Sadjadpour

Ayatollah Khamenei, age 85, is in a self-inflicted dilemma. He lacks the physical and cognitive acumen to lead Iran in a high-tech war. A weak response to Israel further diminishes his authority, a strong response could further jeopardize his survival, and that of his regime.
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The most likely is that Khamanei will order the IRGC to lash out until the realization of how deeply Israel has penetrated it sinks in, by which time the Israelis will have killed everyone and moved on to the Basij goon squad. Once that happens, the regime's survival is at stake

Logic says he'll fold at that stage but he's 85, watching the ruin of his life's work, deeply hated by about 80% of the population and now a discredited loser to the diehard remainder. He may well decide - consciously or unconsciously - that he's going to die so he may as well go down with the ship and to go sooner rather than later.

 

imagine having a rogue nutter in charge!

 

TLDR it's Ukraine's Operation Spiderweb on steroids

 

You were saying . . .

 

Psychologically speaking, I'd say an awful lot of IRGC brass hats have done just that today.

Just sayin'

 

Rest in Pieces

 

An awful lot of Very Thoughtful People bought into the fanciful idea that a not very bright Boomer who lived through the humiliation of the embassy hostages was going to actually block an attack guaranteed to savagely humiliate the Iranian regime. It was never going to happen.

And the longer Israel hammers Iran without inflicting serious body blows in return, the more likely it is that Trump will hop on the bandwagon and send B2s with the MOP bombs to finish off the already critically damaged nuclear facilities. Can't let anyone else have all the credit, can he?

That said, you're right about coherence or consistency from him. If it starts to backfire, Trump will dump Israel in a heartbeat

 

It would be an interesting revolution to observe. Regime change due to foreign intervention pretty much always empowers reactionary, xenophobic forces. OTOH, the leadership already occupies that space; the opposition opposes them from the left.

 

This is irony right?

 

There’s reporting out there that the US is helping shoot down Iranian missiles heading for Israel.

IMO that’s pretty much expected.

 

Evidently not very familiar with your own country's foreign policy, Chirac's or Mitterand's, never mind Macron's. France has been remarkably tough on Iran for decades.

40+ years of assassinating French citizens on French soil tends to have that effect. So does turning Lebanon, a former protectorate with a large number of dual nationals, into an aircraft carrier to further your imperial ambitions.

Going out of your way to supply weapons to Russia to invade a European country, endangering 75 years of French diplomacy and its national security, guarantees it.

 

of course.

 

yup, as I just pointed out. Our rogue nutter is fully engaged in this and standing by to take full credit, should things go well. Or, blame Biden, and anyone else he can think of, should things go badly.

 

Maybe but Israel has been refining its tactics for some time. Back when Israel went for broke in Lebanon the Erdogan-affiliated Clash Report had a couple of fascinating clips of a bunker-buster strike. Three of those struck the exact same spot within seconds: the first punching a hole, with the second deepening it and the third (supposedly) penetrating to the target.

That's the theory and the bombs' guidance systems may have been modified. If so, they will do a lot more damage than expected. Whether it'll be enough is another question

 

But only if it looks difficult. If it looks easy, he'll join the pile-on

 

Indeed they shouldn't.

And neither should you when, I dunno, the Iranians lose their entire general staff on the first day

 

We'll have to wait for the fog to clear to make an assessment how far the nuclear program has been set back. Not just in material damage, but the scientists that were killed in the operation, and whether they can be replaced in short term.
No doubt the damage done is extensive going by leaked satellite images, but curious to see if they succeeded in destroying the critical assets buried underground.

 

As Israelis are saying, Iran has succeeded in closing Israel's airspace to incoming flights.

Outgoing flights to Tehran are unaffected . . . .

 

My comment was aimed at complains like this - which takes a lot of audacity after the atrocities they are currently committing in Gaza.

 

Well, one scenario popular among regime-affiliated analysts is Iran closing the straits of Hormuz, in which case all hell will break loose.

The Chinese won't fcuk around but the mullahs will damn well find out. Neither will the Indians.

 

Pakistan is no threat to Iran.

They gave full diplomatic backing to Iran when the israelis attacked.

I know Iran and Pakistan exchanged missile attacks recently but the Iranians know the Pakistan nuclear missiles are only pointed at one country.