Pre-match: The inevitable war with Iran

From Tripoli, Lebanon tonight. Tough times ahead for Hezbollah and their Tehran owners

Large celebrations in Lebanon’s northern city of Tripoli after rebels take Homs pic.twitter.com/eKRCBhb1pM

— Timour Azhari (@timourazhari) December 7, 2024

 

Tripoli has always been a Sunni dominated city.

 

Yes, but as the smaller by far of Lebanon's 3 major sects, the Sunnis have been cowed by Nasrallah, particularly since Hariri's assassination robbed them of their only nationally credible leadership figure. Open displays are unusual.

That's likely to change now that Hezbollah's supply route has definitively been cut. They've still got an abundance of light infantry weapons, but their command and control has been decimated and their patron has seen 40+ years of strategy, along with the 100s of billions spent on it evaporate in less than 3 months.

The other sects lorded it over the Shia for decades. Then the Shia lorded it over the others through Hezbollah for 30 years. Now they have to choose between pushing Hezbollah to cut a deal while they're still powerful or be pulled down with them

 

I wasn't far out either.

BREAKING:

HTS (The Military Operations Command):

"Heads of the intelligence branches in Damascus have completed arrangements with us to take control of the capital Damascus"

— Rami Jarrah (@RamiJarrah) December 7, 2024

 

Ozymandias


He's a school of thought and it failed

My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal Wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.”​

 

With Iran being severely weakened regionally and the unraveling of the axis of resistance, they basically got two options as I see it. Either go full nuclear for deterrence, with all the risks it entails. Not just the risk of an American and Israeli military strike, but also the risk of severe sanctions (the type that broke Syria), with which I think China would comply and probably even Russia. That would invite even more fury from Iranians, which already have a hard time as it is, and could spark large demonstrations, which would be dangerous for the regime.

The other one is to capitulate in a face-saving manner to Western security demands, which would mean probably giving up enrichment inside Iran, and a dramatic scaling back of support for various proxies. With Syria out of commission as a state actor, such support is probably not as viable anyway as that land corridor is no longer an alternative for Iran.

I think the Mullahs is more concerned about regime survival rather than ideology, which is why I believe Iran will pretty much try to cozy up to Trump and accept many, if not most, of the Western demands.

 

I wonder what that weakening means for the curbing of Al Quaida or IS in the region.

 

Assad wasn't really doing anything to keep al Qaeda and ISIS in check in Syria... There's likely going to be an increase in their activities in Syria in at least the short term. However, that isn't because Assad was keeping them in check, but because it is going to take awhile before Jolani will be able to control the lawlessness that will naturally develop following the fall of a regime.

 

By not preventing Hamas from conducting its October 7th attack on Israel, Iran's proxy forces have been negatively impacted severely. Israel has pounded both Hamas and Hezbollah into the ground. Hamas's attack result in Israel invading Gaza and largely destroying it as a cohesive militant force for the time being. Hezbollah launching rockets into Israel resulted in Israel invading Lebanon and killing thousands of Hezbollah fighters and much of their command structure. It also led Hezbollah to pull most of their units from Syria. Since Syria's army was in shambles, this ultimately led to HTS having a largely open path to Damascus and the removal of Syria as a proxy force for Iran and as a supply line from Iran to Hezbollah.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/a...opy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share

 

Who knows. But whatever the fallout is going to be, it will mainly be Turkey's headache. Jordan will be affected too, if state institutions collapses and Syria remains in perpetual turmoil.

Not that bothered with what Jolani says on CNN. The big question mark is if he will be able to marshal the various militias to assert control over the Syrian territory, build a strong central state and institutions to provide basic services for Syrians.

 

I know, I know.....

But missing in your statement is the death and suffering of millions of innocents. There is a LOT of outrage to go around all players.

 

Not wrong. Israel's response to the October 7 attack has definitely harmed its international standing, but Trump's election pretty much means Israel will keep its primary benefactor. That isn't necessarily true for Hezbollah and Hamas. Hezbollah, in particular, took a pretty hefty hit in public opinion within Lebanon and being forced out of southern Lebanon will make it difficult for them to continue the public services that they provide in that area.

 

Tell me if I'm being naive but I'm not sure Turkey will be that affected by Islamists. I don't think there'll be a massive Islamist groundswell in Turkey. It's been a secular democracy for way too long and they enjoy their beer, wine and topless beaches (or at least that's what western Europeans enjoy in Turkey).

The Kurds are a bigger problem, especially if they have a battle-hardened we'll trained militia looking for their next project.

Israel on the other hand could end up with an Islamist army on their border, while any Islamist presence in the Middle-East is a huge concern for the Arabian states. If Syria can fall so ultimately can Saudi Arabia.

 

Who are causing concerns regarding the viability of SArabia?

 

IWO bitching out on the revolutionary cause, eh? Like the Saudi royal family, they're probably child molestors, drunks & cokeheads on the DL.

 

I wonder how Iran got weapons through Syria, while having to go through hostile Kurds territory

 

Kurds in the autonomous area of Iraq don't have a hostile relation with Iran. Though I'm sure there are other roads one could take that avoids the autonomous area of Iraq if necessary.

 

Via Iraq.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurdi...ran_or,Reza_Shah_Pahlavi_in_1918.?wprov=sfla1

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_Salvation_Government

 

You're being naive. Erdogan has been fanning the flames of Islamism for a number of years now and their economy has taken a beating in recent years. They aren't in huge danger of being overrun by Islamists, but their rural communities and urban poor are certainly primed to be exploited by Islamist movements.

 

How many ar still prosperous after the disastrous Erdogunomics with inflation rates that looked moe like fever temps.

 

You know this is almost totally irrelevant to the relationship of the the Iranians with the autonomous Kurdish region which means with the KDP and the PUK. Kurds across the national borders have never been united and at times political groups have been hostile.

 

Yes!!!! Pics!!!!!

I need IM to show up and post more artillery and warplane porn!