Pre-match: The inevitable war with Iran

OK. I think I'll stop providing updates on Syria for now. It sounds like everything outside of Damascus and western Syria has fallen to various rebel groups. The governates south of Damascus have rebelled, HTS, SNA, and the Kurds are basically driving as fast as they can to gobble up territory east of Damascus and the Syrian Army is driving as fast as they can to either get to western Syria, or Damascus.

It's only a matter of time before the rebel groups get to Damascus and HTS starts pushing west to get to the coast. Once the Syrian army completes its dissolution, the rebel groups will turn on each other and then Turkey and the US will have a serious discussion about what they want to do about eastern Syria.

 

Why would Erdogan do anything?

The humiliation will give him endless satisfaction, of course, but once the Russians leave they won't come back, ever, and with Iran already ousted Turkey will be the last man (aka great power) standing. Erdogan isn't much good as a leader but he understands power, one aspect of that is finishing an historic enemy off. Another aspect of power is banking wins, something he's been a little short of lately.

A major part of Joulnai/HTS legitimacy before the offensive came from his greater independent agency compared to other factions. What better way of consolidating that than by forcing Russia out? Rebuffing Turkish requests to go easy on the base issue in the interests of "global stability would only add to that, something Tayip will be well aware of.

Most important of all, with Russia gone he has a lot of leverage over Israel and that gives him clout in DC. Be sure he'll use it.

 

Why?

Is she standing next to a window (preferably open)?

 

Well, that didn't take long at all

Iranian Foreign Minister:

"It is not possible to predict the fate of the Syrian president"

— Rami Jarrah (@RamiJarrah) December 6, 2024

In case the Tweet doesn't come up

Iranian Foreign Minister: "It is not possible to predict the fate of the Syrian president"​

 

Thoughts and prayers, Assad.

 

More seriously, it shows her up for the total loon she is. That won't improve her standing with Trump.

And reminding him of her vocal opposition to his elimination of Solemani won't help her either.

Even the GOP senate caucus won't be too gutless to kill her off. Or can they??

 

Shot

Chaser (from the same journalist):

Why has Iran State TV stopped using the term “terrorist” adopting instead the term “armed opposition” when referring to Syrian rebels?
Bcause calling them terrorists comes with a duty to go to war, & they’re clearly not willing to put their money where their mouths were just yesterday​

 

I’m not saying Erdogan would allow Russia to stay in western Syria, just that it would be beneficial for him to allow Russia to leave on their own accord without HTS attacking Russian troops as they pull a Dunkirk on Syria’s Mediterranean coast.

Yes, having HTS steamroll Assad’s regime in only.a handful of days is extremely embarrassing for Russia and Iran, but at least they can blame Assad for the failure. Similar to how the US and its allies blamed the Afghan government for failing to create a professional army despite dumping billions into the country, Russia and Iran can say they did all they can to prop Assad up. Also similar to Afghanistan, it benefits HTS to allow Russia and Iran to withdraw their troops peacefully. For one, it will help them on the international stage and, for two, it encourages Russia and Iran to not try to intervene because of dead Russians and Iranians.

Keeping a cordial relationship with Russia is also important for Erdogan. Yes Turkey is part of NATO and an adversary for Russia in the Middle East, but Erdogan is hanging onto power in Turkey by a thread. The last thing Erdogan needs is for Russia to interfere in the next election like it has been doing in the otherNATO countries.

 

What is questionable is if Turkish opposition would ally themselves with Russia?

 

Alexandre Dumas wasn't a great fan of the journalism of his day and in 1841 he wrote an article commenting on how the press covered news stories, using Le Moniteur headlines reporting Napoleon's flight from Elba and his march on Paris as an example.

Feb 28th: The cannibal has emerged from his lair.
March 1st: The Corsican ogre has just landed in the Gulf of Juan.
March 5th: The monster slept in Grenoble.
March 10: The tyrant passed Lyon.
March 12: The usurper was seen sixty leagues from the capital.
March 13: Bonaparte advances with great strides, but he will never enter Paris.
March 16: Napoleon will be under our ramparts tomorrow.
March 17: The emperor has arrived at Fontainebleau.
March 18: His Imperial and Royal Majesty entered his Tuileries Palace yesterday, surrounded by his loyal subjects.
​

 

It wasn’t too long ago that you could have said that about Republicans, but here we are..

 

Ya got me there!

 

BTW this one wasn't true. Le Moniteur was the official gazette, not a newspaper but as the newspaperman character said in The Man who Shot Liberty Vallance, “When the legend becomes fact, print the legend.”

 

Posted this in the Ukraine thread yesterday.

I was wrong. Make it Sunday


Edit:
How about dinnertime - tonight?

 

Erdogan is pro-Putin but Ukraine is also a useful ally, Turkey is a member of NATO, and ties to the EU are important. Sanctions against Russia have been imposed reluctantly and sanctions busting trade continues.

Turkey has been in this awkward position between "western", Russian and Middle- Eastern interests for centuries.

https://carnegieendowment.org/resea...ing-turkiyes-entanglement-with-russia?lang=en

Remember that Erdogan was pro-Islamist before realizing the rest of the country wasn't with him and it cost him a lot of support in the west.

 

Wait Damascus is about to be liberated?

I am sure Assad is no longer in the country.

 

From King's College's Alexander Clarkson

All it might take now is five guys in a jeep from Suwayda and Daraa just rolling up and sticking a Syrian revolution flag on the presidential palace in Damascus

— Alexander Clarkson  (@APHClarkson) December 7, 2024

 

But that's King's College London not King's College Cambridge.

Still a very good university though. It's probably the best after Oxford and Cambridge.

 

Video shot this morning from downtown Jaramana, a satellite town 3km outside Damascus' city limits. It's like Yonkers to NYC or Price George's County to DC.

إسقاط تمثال حافظ الأسد في مدينة جرمانا بريف دمشق. pic.twitter.com/k1mYF132k5

— راصد السويداء (@alrasd_sy) December 7, 2024

Note the Druze rainbow flag on the right. The town is mostly Druze and Christian. It's like blacks and Latinos staging an uprising in support of a Stormfront breakaway militia

 

The speed with which the Assad regime has collapsed can really only be bad news for Syria, as rebels will begin infighting over who remains in power.

 

Our esteemed stupidface has made a thread to discuss Syria and its impending internal struggle. Let’s take it there.

 

Don't lose sight of the impact Russia and Iran skedaddling will have. The old script used to be that they don't abandon their allies in the region. Now look.

— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) December 7, 2024

From Michael Weiss

Don't lose sight of the impact Russia and Iran skedaddling will have. The old script used to be that they don't abandon their allies in the region. Now look.​

 

Opposition fighters have broken through to the centre of Homs as the Hezbollah fighters broke and the army is fleeing or the men are changing into civilian clothes.

Assad is toast.