Pre-match: The inevitable war with Iran

I think Hezbollah and Hamas are more worried than Iran. Iran's regime is less in danger than if 60% of Iran were Sunnis and Kurds.

 

Hezbollah I can agree, but Hamas got weapons etc. despite being cut off/surrounded by Israel on land and at sea.

 

Resistance groups in the West Bank have arms in a large part smuggled from Israel. I won't be totally surprised if Hamas got a portion of its arms the same way.

 

Clearly, the Syria situation is being driven by Turkey, and Israel is on the outside looking in.

 

Prepare for a shocker.. One of the reasons that HTS is overrunning Syrian forces is due to defections among Syrian officers and soldiers to their side that has improved the training of HTS fighters and overall size of their forces.

https://bsky.app/profile/shashj.bsky.social/post/3lcnm3ho3w227

Rebellions are popping up all over Syria and capturing cities and villages as Assad's security forces start to fall apart.

https://bsky.app/profile/tendar.bsky.social/post/3lcnjgbgrpk2m

IDF has conducted airstrikes along Hezbollah arms smuggling routes near the Lebanon/Syria border and is starting to reinforce the Golan Heights just in case the rapidly advancing rebel groups get any ides about retaking the occupied territory. There is also concerns within the IDF about having a radical Sunni group take control of Syria's munitions and chemical weapons.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-n...iran-lebanon-israel-netanyahu-hezbollah-hama/

 

Yes but the crippling of Hezballah opened a window for this to suceed.

 

That’s my point. Yasik is wondering how Israel should take this news. My point is, it doesn’t matter now!

 

In an attempt to save the Assad regime, Iran and Russia are going to meet with Turkey to discuss a power sharing agreement between Assad and the Turkish backed rebel groups. If this comes to pass, the Kurds would likely be locked out of the agreement and likely be targeted by a coordinated attack from Assad's remaining forces and the Turkish backed rebel groups.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/12/06/russia-syria-war-rebels-tartus-bases/

On the other hand, the same article has said that Turkey has torn up the Astana Process and is more interested in having a regime loyal to it than one with Iran and Russia interfering.

 

Israel will want a place at the table, I'm sure. Right now Israel is able to conduct air strikes within Syria at will as long as they notify Russia that they are coming in. If the Turkish backed rebel groups take over and Russia gets kicked out of Syria, Israel would lose that ability...

Of course, they likely wouldn't have to worry about Iran using Syria to smuggle arms to Hezbollah, but who knows.

 

I don’t see Turkey doing that, unless Iran and Russia really sweeten the deal with something else. Assad continuing in lower really gives no guarantee of anything. Clearly he is not popular, and his regime is frail. Even with Russian and Iranian support, he can be pushed out easily.

 

I don't disagree with you, but Turkey could also see it as a way to stop Iran and Russia from meddling in the Turkish controlled areas of Syria (or in Syria as a whole if they topple the Assad regime. Syria's demographics are a jumbled mess with roughly 1/3 being Sunni Arabs, 1/3 being Shia or Alawite (Assad's ethnicity/religion), and 1/3 non-Arab Muslims, Christians, or Kurds.

 

Sorry to suck you in over here, waitforit. But I didn't want to respond to your post here rather than in the Ukraine thread.

I'm not sure Turkey wants to poke the bear by having the rebel groups it supports attacking Russia. Even though Turkey is a member of NATO and is an adversary of Russia in the Middle East, it at least has a cordial relationship with Russia. If the Turkish back rebel groups start directly attacking Russian bases in Syria that cordial relationship goes up in smoke and Russia likely starts backing opposition groups in Turkey to overthrow Erdogan.

 

The skeet says this is in Hama, so no idea if the video is old, who is driving the vehicles, or where they are going, but video of Russian S400 and Tor-M2 air defenses moving around in Syria. There is speculation that Russia is withdrawing some of its most valuable military assets from Syria. These air defenses, in particular, are basically useless since the rebel groups don't have any aircraft and are using drones instead.

https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lcnqs46mvk2v

Hopefully these are under the control of the Turkish rebels and headed towards Turkey, rather than in Russian control and headed towards Russia.

 

Israeli news organizations are reporting that Israel is starting to conduct airstrikes on Syrian chemical weapons depots to prevent them from falling into the hands of the rebels. Under Assad's control, Israel was basically assured that they wouldn't be used against Israel as the Russians would prevent them from doing so.

https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lcnty4rp6s2v

 

This is actually more believable. This skeet claims the air defenses are being pulled from the Russian air base in Syria and being moved to the Russian controlled port, where it will be loaded onto a cargo ship and sent back to Russia.

https://bsky.app/profile/osinttechnical.bsky.social/post/3lcnueyd43k2o

If true, this likely means that Russia is preparing to abandon the airbase. Although these air defenses are useless against the rebels since they don't have any aircraft/helicopters, I doubt Russia would be pulling them if they believed Assad's regime could hold Western Syria.

 

Kurdish people claim huge areas of Turkey, Iraq, Syria and Iran. Much of those areas are rich in natural resources. A Greater Kurdistan state threatens all of them economically and they'll work with their natural enemies to stop that from happening.

The total number of civilian deaths in various Kurdish uprisings in Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Syria since 1950 runs into hundreds of thousands.

 

Some people get off on their own outrage.

Why deny them their only source of pleasure?

 

Don't exaggerate Turkey's role. Joulani is nobody's puppet, HTS aren't the SNA (which really is a Turkish pawn) and proxies have a habit of setting off on their own course when the time is right.

And the entire situation is being driven by just how hollow the Assad regime is/was.

The make Mussolini's army seem like the 101st Airborne

 

To me, the best indication that Assad is on the way out is that both Hezbollah and Iraqi militias that operated in Syria have made statements that they aren’t yet going to fight in Syria, even as they say “pending orders from” Iran / religious authorities. https://t.co/x69IcrLgPS

— Hassan I. Hassan (@hxhassan) December 6, 2024

 

Most of those casualties have been Kurds killed by the regimes of the countries....

 

True but during active Kurdish rebellions.

 

Aside from a narrow strip on the Turkish border that is held by rebels loyal to Turkey, Kurdish rebels have taken all of Syria east of the Euphrates and are making advances west of the Euphrates as the Syrian Army and Shiite militias are withdrawing towards Damascus.

https://bsky.app/profile/tendar.bsky.social/post/3lcnzksfqsc2m

 

HTS is reporting that they have reached the Homs city limits and that the city will likely fall in the next few hours. There have, reportedly, been a number of defections from the Syrian Army to HTS. If true, western Syria has been cut off from Damascus.

https://bsky.app/profile/viisegrad24.bsky.social/post/3lco2ellk5k2o