Pre-match: The inevitable war with Iran

Hmm.. To stop the Syria civil war from overrunning the Ukraine War thread.. I'm posting this here!! Syria is going to be a clusterf**k even if Assad is removed from power. Not only will Iran continue to fund militant factions aligned with them (SAA), but there's also Jihadis backed by Saudi Arabia, Arab militant factions backed by Turkey (SNA, HTS, etc), and Kurdish militant factions backed by the US (SDF)

1. Yesterday, US A-10s attacked the positions of Syrian Army and Iranian Republican Guard in support of advancing Kurdish rebels.

https://bsky.app/profile/archer83able.bsky.social/post/3lcfpdscsbk26

2. Yesterday, Kurdish rebels agreed to withdraw from the positions in Aleppo that they had taken, leaving the positions to be taken by the Turkish aligned rebels.

https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lcf44bdgbc2c

2. Today, Turkish aligned rebels are sending troops to the front between their held territory and the territory held by Kurdish rebels. They claim it to defend that front, but the reality is that they will be attacking the Kurds to expand their area of control

https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lcg5tj3udk2c

 

Another victory for the British and French mandates.

 

Man, the Kurds have it rough.

 

Yup. I've heard that they are the largest ethnic group that doesn't have a state of their own. Unfortunately this has resulted in them being oppressed in all of the countries they are in. They do have self autonomy in Iraq, but with the US and Iraq agreeing to end the US's anti-ISIS operations in Iraq, that could mean things get spicy for the Kurds as they won't have the US there to smooth things over with the Iraqi government.

 

The other problem is that their "homeland" is at the head waters of much of the freshwater in the region. I get why there is so much opposition for a Kurdish state. That, and everyone being complete assholes to them.

 

My god, the rebels (HTS) are riding their momentum to Hama (Homs in the map below. Note: map is over 5 years old)

Damascus is still safe for Assad and his regime, but damn!

 

It is also worth noting that the Russian bases are on the coast, so if Hama/Homs falls, Syria would be cut off from Russian supplies. I've seen claims that Russia is already moving out of the naval base on Syria's coast.

https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lcgmc46lpk2c

Probably the biggest indicator that Russia is cutting Syria loose.

In other news, lots of reports that Ukraine helped train fighters from the Turkish aligned rebel groups and gave them UAVs to help attack Syrian (and Russian) forces. Much like Ukraine's support for rebel groups in Africa, this largely falls under Ukraine's belief that the only good Russian soldier is a dead Russian soldier, wherever they happen to be.

https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lcglfnuxbk2y

 

It's worth noting that the Nebenzya in the above quote about Ukraine supporting Turkey-aligned rebels in Syria is Russia's delegate on the Security Council. I've also seen the same statement from Ukraine aligned sources tho.

 

I finally saw a decent map of the current conflict map in Syria and Homs is not actually Hama. Hama is a city half to 2/3 between Aleppo and Homs.

https://bsky.app/profile/tendar.bsky.social/post/3lchujwlqnk2a

It looks like the Syrian Army is putting up at least a decent defense now. The rebels are making advances, but it is slow. They are also in the process of encircling Hama rather than engaging in urban warfare.

https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lcijiqbe7k2r

 

Whoops! This is when my lack of Syrian geography bites me in the ass.

 

I made the same mistake as you. But tbh Hama and Homs aren't that far away from each other, and once Hama falls Homs isn't far away.

If the Assad regime does draw on a broad base of support in the Latakia coastal region, then the fight for Hama/Homs is going to be brutal and we will see the country in true civil war mode for a long time. But if the Assad regime no longer holds popular support among even Shia Syrians, then what we're about to see will resemble Libya.

 

After capturing the roads leading into Hama on the North, East, and West, rebel groups are reportedly "storming" Hama right now. Lots of explosions and gunfire across the city.

https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lcitcvyums2d

 

And Israel is threatening to treat every Lebanese resident as Hezbollah commit genocide if the ceasefire fails.

 

Israel will not differentiate between Lebanon and Hezbollah if ceasefire collapses - defence minister Katz.

 

Hama has fallen!!!

 

That doesn't mean Israel will start carpet bombing Beirut. I'd imagine it means they'll start targeting Lebanese military and infrastructure.

 

ie: churches, schools (especially elementary), and hospitals. Probably power generations and distribution sites too!

 

But hey, we have a thread to talk about Israel's current war, could we move that talk over there? Well, other than to note that one of the reasons that the rebels have been able to advance in Syria is because Hezbollah withdrew their troops from Syria, where they were prompty killed by Israel.


Also, after taking Hama, the rebels have started flowing south towards Homs. If they are able to take Homs, that could be a deathblow to the Assad regime. Taking Homs would cut off the coast from Damascus and would make resupplying the Syrian army very difficult.

https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lcl3k2lvec2h

 

This can't be a good sign for the Syrian regime. The Syrian army is reportedly blowing up bridges between Hama and Homs.. That being said, it is impossible for them to blow up all of the crossings because one of the crossings is an earthen dam holding back an absolute crapton of water.

https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lclhinntvc2i

 

All the places where terrorists hide...probably.

 

The liveua map in the past few hours has been updated to show Kurds advancing in the northeast, rebels on the outskirts of Homs, and rebels rising up in Daraa near Israel and Jordan.