Pre-match: The inevitable war with Iran

Any attack at scale would be an enormous, bet-the-farm type of gamble by Iran. The US will continue to block Israel from hitting nuclear targets but nothing else will be off the table. Neither will "escalation management"

Does Iran really want to invite Israel to jump several rungs up the escalatory ladder?

Presumably, US intel has been copied on this and is doing collection of its own. It this is true, we should hear from DC shortly

 

I don't know what you think you know, but based on your comments and the reports you rely on, I am afraid the discussion is getting to the point where I will need to prove water is wet. The Bavar 373 can identify 100 targets and hit them at very high speed from 300 km distance at high altitude (120 km). The system is comparable but superior to the S400, never mind the S300 which simply does not possess some of those capabilities.

The positioning of S300 batteries near some important sites in Iran does not negate other systems that protect those sites and others. Iran has an integrated and layered air defense network that cover different types of potential aerial threats at difference speeds and altitudes at these sites and others. The S300 plays a role in that network. Israel may have damaged one of Iran's S300 batteries but commercial satellite should be able to locate the other S300 batteries that are still operational (despite propaganda claims in the media about Israel successfully taking out all 4 Iranian S300 batteries). Regardless, Iran has older Bavar 373 systems that cover the same range and altitude as the S300 and can fill out that role even better. This graphic from globalssecurity shows the different sizes of missiles (e.g. Sayyad 4) used for the Bavar system compared to the S300. The positioning of these missiles depends on the range they are most effective. If a missile has not been intercepted at the outermost range of the Bavar system (300 km), and is closer to the target (>100 km), the S300 would be used, and if a missile is approaching a lower altitude and range covered by other systems, other systems will be used.


Israel fired around 60 missiles against Iranian targets. At most, 20 hits mostly causing minor damage and small fires with one or two explosions can be recorded and shown using satellite and video footage and not propaganda commentary. We can also see home video of Iranian air defenses taking out several Israeli missiles attempting to hit targets. We also have Iranian military officials and leaders appearing in public despite the Israeli threats and looking quite confident that the country's air defense systems will be able to protect them. I see no evidence anyone in Iran feels that country is now "naked" and exposed to Israeli aircraft or their missiles. Yes, Israel did manage to hit some targets in Iran but if Gallant wants to claim this was Israel's most important and successful mission since the 1967 war, then that merely exposes the limitations and not the strengths of the Israelis. Propaganda might affect the voters and constituents these politicians are trying to influence, but they aren't going to affect or change what Iran knows about what Israeli hit and what it failed to hit.

Anyway, when Iran strikes Israel, and destroys Israeli air defense systems, the videos from it look as follows below. Given US/Israeli satellite and reconnaisance capabilities, please post some clear visuals of what Israel struck instead of regurgitating talking head commentary from paid Israeli agents masquerading as experts.

 

I've heard of this ceasefire draft. But who are the actual signatories to it on the Lebanese side?
Not long ago Amos Hochstein, a previous IDF soldier, was sent to Beirut as an emissary representative of the US (now thats a good laughter) and presented a ceasefire proposal to the Lebanese state that essentially constituted a surrender agreement. It was outright rejected by the pm.

This new agreement or alteration would indeed also be a surrender. But unless its signed by and agreed by Hezbollah, the agreement is worth less than the paper it is printed on.
Its one thing for Lebanese pm to announce or wish for something. But he Lebanese army is not the one doing the fighting. Unless the Lebanese officials signs the agreement without Hezbollah (which is the only relevant player as it pertains to the armed conflict), and the Lebanese army enforces the agreement by direct confrontation with Hezbollah, its rather premature to talk of a strategic defeat of anyone or the shattering of resistance axis.
Its several weeks in, and Israel has barely crossed the border, and are taking a number of casualties- Many in Israel (including previous prime minister Yair Lapid) suspects the true numbers of casualties are not being reported because of censorship.

Too early in the game to draw any conclusions. The latest I heard/read is that the US wants Lebanese pm to unilaterally declare a ceasefire (without Hezbollah), in order to get the process going.
I mean, I've heard a lot of riciclous nonsense, but that one takes the cake.

 

The United States is going to deploy additional military resources in the Middle East. The Pentagon announced on Friday that it would send additional defense systems against ballistic missiles and B-52 bombers to the region, among other things. The U.S. Department of Defense immediately issued a warning to Iran in the statement. "Should Iran and its allies seize on the situation to attack U.S. troops or interests in the region, the United States will take whatever measure is necessary to defend our people," the message said.

You can't fly B52's from carriers and the Gulf states have explicitly denied the USA to use their territory for attacks on/aid for Israel against Iran.
So where are they being flown from?

 

According to AFP, the IDF says 37 soldiers were killed In October. Censorship means casualties are undercounted. How much varies by culture, type of government and the duration of the battle/war but 30% is considered an outlier and a month is rather long for sustained under-reporting of bad news in an intensely competitive media landscape like Israel's.

If we assume a 30% undercount, there are about IDF 50 dead with another 150-200 wounded to varying degrees. Meanwhile veteran OSINT observers of the Syria-Lebanon scene report Hezbollah as sometimes losing that many in a single day, with 30-40 being the usual range.

In other words, Israel's dead are, at most, in the middle dozens. Hezbollah's are 1,000, at least, with another 3-4,000 wounded and could be 1,300 dead and 4-5,000 wounded. That's from a full-time fighting force of 30,000. A few months of this will decimate Hezbollah. A year of it will decimate the Shia male population.

 

"Governments never lie, do they? Of course not. There's absolutely zero chance of the Gulf states saying 'black' to Al Jazeera or CNN and 'white' to the Americans. Perish the thought!"

Those B-52s will fly from where ever.

 

The Lebanese signatories will be the Lebanese government or nobody. A Sunni, who are the weakest militarily and politically of all Lebanon's sects, Mikati is a caretaker with no powerbase of his own. He's very definitely the chairman of the meetings rather than the decision-maker.

Since he wants to live long enough to die in his bed and the same for his children, he won't sign anything until everyone has approved it. If Hezbollah explicitly reject it, so will he. If they don't, explicitly, that means they've accepted humble pie for lunch but with a plate of fig leaves on the side and he'll sign.

There is zero chance that Mikati would be discussing it with the Americans, Hochstein or otherwise, IDF veteran or not, unless he was already negotiating that with Hezbollah and had seen a good deal of smoke from them. Isolated within Lebanon and at least temporarily abandoned by their master without, they're in serious need of an out and are very obviously looking for one with this as the only deal on the table

 

Yeah you've been making a lot of these definitive predictions, and they might turn out to be true. But what is actually happening now is indeed a quagmire where Israel has not been able to advance in southern Lebanon in a meaningful way, Hezbollah firing rockets into northern Israel and extended their range of fire into Haifa and other places.
Lets consider the fact that Israel has not been able to achieve any of its stated goals in Gaza after more than a year of fighting. And thats an enclave that is besieged from every direction, with a terrain that is nothing like the mountainous terrain of Lebanon. Hamas is debilitated for sure, but its says something that Israel being forced to return to areas (that have been announced as cleared of Hanas) for a third or fourth time to clear out Hamas yet another time.

As for numbers, I consider it a waste of time to try and try to figure that out. I regard Osint tweeters as reliable as Al Mayadeen. Ie not reliable. We probably wont know the actual number of combatants until long after the dust settles.

But if a permanent ceasefire takes place which decouple the Lebanon front from the Gaza front, I will be the first to admit I was wrong, and that would indeed constitute a strategic victory for Israel.
But until that happens, my prediction is that this will continue for a while.
My second prediction is that such a ceasefire will be comprehensive that includes all parties involved (Hamas, Iran, Israel, Hezbollah, Houthis etc)

 

Barksdale / Minot AFB's with forward positioning in Aviano AFB (Italy) or Anderson AFB (Guam)...

Not to mention, they can fly all the way around the world and never have to land until they return to the US

 

Probably Diego Garcia too, since they flew out of Diego Garcia to attack Iraq.

 

As I mentioned early on, I don't expect Iran to respond to Israel's attack before the US election. But a response shortly after is likely, especially since the Americans (instead of facilitating potential Gaza/Lebanon/Israel ceasefire negotiations, are complicating them with their attempts to sideline the groups that actually need to be involved in any meaningful ceasefire (e.g. Hezbollah)).

In this regard, the indications are that Iran's response will be powerful, using much heavier warheads and missiles and systems that it has not used so far. The response will also be multifaceted, involving allied forces in the region as well. The resistance forces in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen will all likely participate with full force in this operation.

In the meantime, this article by an Israeli air force group captain should help those who imagine there are "preemptive options" that can be realistically used against Iran.

Eagle-44 airbase: How Iran’s mountain fortress is a game changer in Iran-Israel standoff
Group Capt MJ Augustine Vinod
November 2, 2024, 11:55:15 IST

 

Land - Pick up Fuel, drop bombs, fly home

 

Two things that a 20-second Google search could have confirmed:

* Group Captain is only used by British Commonwealth air forces: Israel is not a member
* India is, and Augustine Vinod is Indian.​

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What else have you missed?

 

Precision-guided missiles have pushed underground shelters and bases out of favour - exhaust fume dispersal, ventilation systems and the limited number of access and exit routes and launch options make them too vulnerable. Hardened single-aircraft shelters with multiple taxiways and runways are easier individual targets, but their number makes them more challenging for attackers.

Missiles and drones will be better protected by the mountain rock, which means more attacks can be launched, but they'll also be concentrated in one place and that makes them more vulnerable to attack if Israel has identified weaknesses in the design, which there always are.

Iran has the equipment to damage Israel in a handful of saturation attacks but once the stocks of missiles have been depleted, Iran has no retaliatory capacity left. In that respect, it doesn't change the equation: if Israeli bases, aircraft and industrial capacities are not devastated in those attacks, Iran will be extremely vulnerable to counter-strikes.

 

There is a character limit, so...

 

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My bad for mistaking "IAF" for the Israel as opposed to the Indian air force.

As for your subsequent point about depletion of missiles stocks in multiple saturation strikes, yes, eventually but (a) Iran can replenish those stocks as it produces those missiles at a healthy rate; (b) they can do a lot of damage before any such depletion. More significantly, however, unless there is evidence that Israel is willing to pay the price (and I don't see the evidence), the deterrent value of these missiles is what Iran believes will always create a huge gulf between Israeli propaganda and aspirations in terms of their threat as opposed to what they will actually be willing to do.

 

Fun fact:
Iran is the only country to have attacked 3 nuclear countries (Pakistan Israel USA)

 

So you're finally taking responsibility for 9/11?

 

This is, of course, untrue. Haaaave you heard of Vietnam?

 

I was thinking of this too but France didn't develop its first nuclear weapons until after pulling out of Vietnam.

 

Withdrew from Vietnam 1954.
First nuke 1960.

 

Saying Vietnam attacked France, USA and China is like saying Poland attacked Nazi Germany and the USSR in 1939.

 

I'm sure within a few years textbooks in US public schools will be saying this.