Pre-match: The inevitable war with Iran

Hey we got an awesome Die Hard movie out of that premise with Gerard Butler in the McClain role. In that movie it was a billionaire Xmas party during campaign season.

 

Helicopters are perfectly safe flying on instruments. But unless you know exactly where you are in mountainous terrain -- which typically means flying above the mountains -- this is what happens more often than not.

 

https://apnews.com/article/iran-president-ebrahim-raisi-426c6f4ae2dd1f0801c73875bb696f48
‘No sign of life’ at crash site of helicopter carrying Iran’s president, others

 

Heard there was some great news tonight.....

 

Iran has confirmed the death of president Raisi and his entourage, including Iran's foreign minister.

At this time, the facts appear to indicate the following: deteriorating weather conditions (extreme fog) caused the pilot to report having to attempt a hard landing due to lack of visibility, which caused the helicopter to crash into a wooded mountainous area. Due to security precautions and threats, the GPS system on this helicopter were actually turned off to avoid detection by hostile forces (but also limiting the pilot's ability to navigate the helicopter in heavy fog). 2 other helicopters whose systems were not similarly turned off, carrying lower level officials were, by contrast, able to navigate through the weather conditions presumably aided by their altimeter and GPS systems.

 

I find a lot of the reports about the "Bell helicopter" carrying Iran's president annoying. A few quick points on the issue are in order.

1. There is no evidence the crash had anything to do with the conditions of the helicopter. These helicopters are regularly flying and well maintained with no history of crashes (except one case more than 20 years ago).
2. Iran's ability to maintain and rehaul aircraft (and manufacture all necessary spare parts) is such that even Russia's Aeroflat has turned to Iran for maintaining the air worthiness of its fleet in light of sanctions.
3. Iran not only maintains its large fleet of Bell helicopters, but manufactures clones of these helicopters. Back in 2006, Bell even sued Iran for building "unauthorized copies" of its helicopters. Since then, Iran has manufactured hundreds of such helicopters.

https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/2010-02-22/iran-counterfeiting-bells-helicopters
Iran counterfeiting Bell’s helicopters

 

Couldn’t have happened to a nicer guy.

 

But does Iran know that?

https://apnews.com/article/iran-president-ebrahim-raisi-426c6f4ae2dd1f0801c73875bb696f48


“One of the main culprits of yesterday’s tragedy is the United States, which ... embargoed the sale of aircraft and aviation parts to Iran and does not allow the people of Iran to enjoy good aviation facilities,” Zarif said. “These will be recorded in the list of US crimes against the Iranian people.”

 

Javad Zarif belongs to the faction in Iran whose political interests are tied to reviving the fraud known as the JCPOA and doesn't tire of any opportunity to deliver the message that Iran needs removal of the US sanctions at any cost. The Americans don't give two hoots about the "tragedy" he alludes to and, if anything, would be thrilled to think their sanctions are supposedly so effective. The real audience Zarif is addressing are in Iran.

 

Kobe Bryant had the same issue.

That an explosion too?

 

Initially, I suspected foul play. As more facts have emerged, I no longer see foul play (whether foreign or domestic) the likely culprit. I would think my subsequent posts had made that clear.

 

Nope just shitty equipment because your garbage government incentivizes all the smart people to flee the country!

 

The American government killed Kobe Bryant?

 

After helping Iran to find out President Raisi’s helicopter crash site, Turkish drone Bayraktar Akıncı draw the Turkish national symbol on the map 🇹🇷 pic.twitter.com/sLchrxqvyv

— Xavi Ruiz (@xruiztru) May 20, 2024

 

https://breakingthenews.net/Article...day-of-mourning-over-Raisi's-passing/62080589
Turkey declares national day of mourning over Raisi's passing
https://www.barrons.com/news/pakistan-pm-declares-day-of-mourning-after-raisi-death-6d78ab5b
Pakistan PM Declares Day Of Mourning After Raisi Death
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/ind...t-ebrahim-raisi-dies-in-chopper-crash-5705756
India Declares One-Day State Mourning After Iran President Dies In Chopper Crash
https://www.reuters.com/world/middl...ing-over-deaths-iran-president-fm-2024-05-20/
Lebanon, Syria begin 3 days of mourning over deaths of Iran president, FM
https://ina.iq/eng/32831-the-iraqi-...the-iranian-president-and-his-companions.html
The Iraqi Government declares a national day of mourning for the death of the Iranian President and his companions

 

The supreme leader now has a big problem.
The crashed president was intended/was groomed to succeed the supreme leader.
They now have to find another solution, of which his son is one of the least desirable from regime pov.

 

As I was saying...

 

In that case, I hope he burned all the way down.

 

When it comes to public figures, we 'know them' mostly from their public persona which, in turn, is heavily influenced by the politicians and media outlets which different audiences follow. This doubly or triply true of foreign public figures that we rarely if ever get to see or hear directly. All this meant as a preface to what I have to say about the reason why the loss of president Raisi may in some ways be difficult for the regime to overcome, as that reason may sound alien or even outlandish to those who have been exposed to and influenced by a completely contradictory narrative about Ebrahim Raisi than the one existing among the regime faithful in Iran.

Even among more traditional Iranians, the predominant image that reverberates about Iranian politicians and high ranking clerics is one that sees them as corrupt, self-serving, dishonest, and often parasitic. While president Raisi was not the kind of figure to inspire a very strong or intense following, he appeared loyal, hardworking, patriotic and faithful, of moderate or even liberal temperament. In short, he was seen (among many regime faithful) as a "good person", in a country where that description among public figures is often seen as notably absent.

 

There is no evidence of foul play in this incident, but as I learn more about it (including listening yesterday to an hour long interview with president Raisi's chief of staff flying in a chopper right behind the president's helicopter until they had encountered heavy clouds and fog for a few minutes in one area) I can't help thinking, first, how this accident was easily avoidable and, secondly, how the whole circumstances rightly reflect very poorly on Iran.

The circumstances reflect an almost fatalistic approach to issues relating to presidential safety and relevant security protocols -- and what amounts to extreme neglect (lack of appropriate investment and attention) when it comes to any form of up-to-date, high-tech, search and rescue capabilities. If US sanctions played a role in the accident, it is in these areas and IMO not in the maintenance or conditions of the chopper used (except it is embarrassing in the first place that Iran's president would be flying in an old American chopper).

 

In the meantime, the huge crowds that have gathered in different cities in Iran to mourn president Raisi and his compatriots have been very impressive.

What I have often referred to as Iran's silent majority are mostly people who have been reared to know right from wrong, get far less than their fair share of their nations resources, but pay a hugely disproportionate price in the sacrifices necessary to keep Iran's enemies at bay. People whose hospitality, kindness, and humbleness, should not mask their determination to cheer for their ancient land and to preserve its independence, while so many around them (from both within the regime as well as many of the lost souls who constitute the "opposition" to it within Iran and without), never seem to tire selling it away for cheap.

President Raisi, far from being anything remotely resembling the "butcher" the real butchers and liars in this world would like to paint, was a very fitting and representative face of these noble people. The regime will need to confront its power mafias and open up its doors to find someone not hugely compromised to replace him. Not necessarily as president but as someone acceptable to groom as the next Supreme Leader.

 

100% correct

They did not. US sanctions did not force the pilot to turn off his GPS (doing so as a security precaution is dubious at best) and fly into the side of a mountain. This was a totally boneheaded move by the person at the controls, and 100% preventable.

 

It doesn't surprise me that you would agree "100%" with anything that reflects poorly on Iran.

I don't think it was the pilot's decision. Security protocols require flight transponder and GPS systems be turned on a helicopter carrying the president. The reason for it seems obvious: the idea that any terrorist armed with a stinger or other shoulder fired missile would be allowed to track the flight wouldn't appear wise. The issue I alluded to includes the failure to equip this helicopter with alternative navigational systems that must exist. Sanctions might have played a role on this issue.

First, I don't like to jump too ahead of myself and prejudge the full facts which will need to (and are) being investigated. That said:
https://abcnews.go.com/Internationa...icopter-crash-killed-irans/story?id=110406062
Expert provides insight into suspected cause of helicopter crash that killed Iran's president

GANYARD: It seems to be a fairly classic mishap that occurs when helicopter pilots try to skirt underneath weather in very mountainous terrain. So we know that there was a lot of fog in the area. We know that they had dignitaries, very important people, which oftentimes puts an extra, at least mental burden on the pilots to make sure that they get to get to the destination. And when you're flying in the mountains and you have very low visibility, there's a natural tendency for helicopter pilots to begin to sort of descend and try to get lower and try to get underneath either the fog or the cloud layer. And they know that they can set the aircraft down if they need to. But oftentimes it leads to tragedy. If you remember, earlier this year, back in February, a marine Corps helicopter was trying to do this very thing, trying to get back to San Diego and in the mountains above San Diego, just to the to the east of San Diego, crashed. And unfortunately, all the Marines on board lost their lives.​

 

In one of the odd twists to this story, an activist relative of Pouya Bakhtiari (a protester who died in the course of anti-regime protests in 2019 whose family was very involved publicizing his death) has posted a message on X claiming the technician pilot on the helicopter was Pouya Bakhtiari's cousin! And sent her condolences for his death in that flight.

1793019606023422178 is not a valid tweet id

 

From America's leading asswipe, Jackson Tinkle. It'll be going on a T-shirt soon