Pre-match: The inevitable war with Iran

It's a strike, but calibrated. As with Iran's strike on Israel, it's a signal of what they have in their arsenal and how much more is to come but if they'd wanted to cause real damage, we'd have seen something by now.

I expect Iran to hit back again, but in a limited way and probably through proxies. If so, this phase will peter out over the next month.


Edit:
It's also quite significant that proxy groups were hit in Iraq and Syria. IMO that's signaling the equivalent of "let's do this in private".

 

It's more about the sentiment among the Jordan people itself, which since the devastation of Gaza and the images of dead children and babies has been increasingly negative about what is perceived as collaboration with Israel. This "defending" of Israel against the Iranian attack is putting the royal family firmly in the camp of fighting against allies of the Gaza people.

 

True.
But honestly, a country like Jordan needs to be ruled by a strongman like King Abdullah. I dont think a democratic elected government could do much better considering the enviroment Jordan finds itself in.
To go against US or Israel will be suicide for a country like Jordan, so I cant blame them.

 

The point is that the strike on a diplomatic compound is a direct strike on Iran and for dick swinging purposes can't be ignored, but has been done in such a way that the strike was symbolic. Khamenei didnot call Biden's bluff. He made sure the response was in such a way, Biden could tell bibi to count his blessings.

 

And it's not exactly calling someone's bluff if you poke your finger into someone's belly, instead of going for swings to the head.

 

We don't know what the target was, what weapon(s) was used to target it and what the success rate was. Once we do, things will start to become clear

If it was ballistic missiles, they wanted to hit something important and make a pretty material difference to Iran's capabilities. If it was a drone strike from Israel, the target would likely be an IRGC or secret police HQ, an airbase or a laboratory at a dual-use research facility.

As for drones launched from within Iran, that would require blowing the cover of Israeli agents and/or their partners in the Iranian underground. It's certainly possible but I'd be skeptical that they'd use them on something like that: it takes a lot of time and money to set those networks up and they're more suited to spying, assassinations and sabotage operations. There's also the matter of getting the drone operator(s) properly trained in drone operations and where to do it without arousing Iranian intel suspicions.

If they have, the members of the underground cell concerned are getting the hell out of Iran as we speak and the wider group is going to cut links with Israel, permanently. They always Knew there was a risk of being used as pawns, but this is too blatant.

 

A few weeks before Saudi Arabia's ARAMCO oil facilities went up in smoke, Saudi Arabia's MBS was on 60 minutes claiming Saudi Arabia could match and defeat Iran. After the ARAMCO event, he went to Trump to beg for help and when he realized he would be on his own, that was the last of such boasts by him.

In the recent Iranian strike against Israel, Iran intentionally employed a large swarm of decoys and duds and gave everyone notice of their flight path to throw Biden a bone to allow him to claim he was defending Israel without the US having go get involved attacking Iran. More importantly, however, Iran also made 2 things very clear to the Israelis: 1- you will need the US to protect you against Iran, so behave accordingly; 2- even with advance notice and US+ assistance, we have missiles that can hit even your most sensitive and heavily protected bases. Out of only 12 kheibar shekan missiles used, at least 9 hit their targets.

 

Of course, that applies to both sides - Israel may be covering up some of the damage inflicted on them. No party in a conflict ever tells the truth about battle damage suffered. It's either downplayed to show the world that you're so capable or exaggerated to justify what you were planning to do anyway - or, sometimes, to deceive the enemy.

From ex CIA officer Mike di Mino

You don’t have to respond to an attack that “never happened” which is likely why Iranian state media has been downplaying so aggressively. I also doubt Israel will officially claim the attack. They didn’t claim the attack on Isfahan last January either.
Cloak and dagger.

I’d assess this to be mostly a wash. Minimal damage incurred by both sides after trading direct blows. Iran and Israel have room to get off the escalation ladder. The off-ramp is there.

Iran promised a robust response to any Israeli attack, so we’ll see if they follow through.​

 

Iran will not respond to this so-called "attack" unless (1) the Israelis officially take "credit" for it and/or 2- there was real damage done (there wasn't). @teammellieIRANfan is definitely correct on this point.

 

There have been past many episodes when Iran has failed badly and/or disappointed me very much. If you read my message just in this thread before the strikes on Israel, you will see me express my frustration and/or disappointment in many past instances. But in this episode, from my vantage point, Iran did very well. I usually believe if I was calling the shots, Iran would be doing so much better on so many issues. But this isn't one of them. Iran did well.

 

My guess is the IAF entered Syrian airspace, flew to the North-East, launched just a handful of precision-guided missiles to hit a) a few sensitive but not vital targets or, more likely, b) a missile or air force base that launched the missiles or drones fired at Israel and left.

The goal was likely:

• Explosions reported in a city with many strategic activities
• Iran downplays
• Israel does not comment
• Headbangers in Jerusalem or Tehran are really angry
• Nobody else is very upset
• The End.​

 

Iran and Israel's tit-for-tat battle that could become all-out war
i|2 hours ago
Iran, which lost about one million people in its war with Iraq in the 80s, wants to avoid total war, according to the academic. It also doesn't want to become even more isolated internationally. As a result, it generally prefers to pursue a strategy of small and regular attacks against Israel using third parties, such as Lebanon's Hezbollah.

Israel seems to have stuck to small drones when it hit Iran - suggesting it only wanted a minor retaliation
Yahoo News UK|3 hours ago
The relatively restrained nature of an apparent Israeli drone attack on Iran suggests it wants to avoid escalation.

Iran and Israel won't stop fighting, but World War Three has been averted - for now
The Independent|3 hours ago
Iran's surprisingly solemn response to Israel's retaliatory air strike could be seen as a hopeful sign that points to an end to the tit-for-tat escalation - or something far more foreboding, says Mary

Israel and Iran pull back from the brink
The Financial Times|3 hours ago
Hostilities have erupted on multiple fronts between Israel and Iranian-backed militants. US troops have been drawn into combat in Iraq, Syria and Yemen. Israel and Hizbollah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese militant movement, have been locked in daily cross-border combat that at any other time would be considered all-out war.

Iran and Israel conflict: Iranian living in Belfast says 90% of people in Iran want to live in peace with Israel
The News Letter|33 minutes ago
An Iranian man living in Belfast says that he is concerned for the safety of his family in Iran - and that 90% of Iranians opposed its unprecedented attack on Israel last weekend.

 

Very glad to hear that.

Also, one of my students was from there. A good kid.

 

Conspiracy-addled westerners on Twitter: OMG, it's really happening!! WW3 has started and we're all going to die!! It's all Biden's fault!

Iran: There was no airstrike. Airdefence systems worked perfectly. Nothing happened, so go to school and go to work. Never again think about the things that didn't happen just now.

 

Further escalation by bibi will depends on how the west reacts to this attack.
If they do a repeat of the reaction on the diplomatic grounds, it will give him the assurance he can aim for the nuclear sites themselves to trigger the response he needs to drag the rest into the war.

 

Iran has a vested interest in dialing this whole thing and the regional tension down.
They are only recently somewhat emerging out of both economic and political isolation, with inclusion in BRICS, Shanghai Cooperation Council, the reestablishing of diplomatic with Saudi Arabia et al, and increased cooperation with Russia etc.
A regional war that would threaten security of oil and global economy in general, would not serve that purpose. Therefore this "retaliation" (or whatever you want to call it) has pretty much given Iran a getting-out-of-jail card. They can opt out and step back from the brink, and imo they will.
Despite what I think of the current regime, it is a somewhat rational actor that will chose strategic/material interests ahead of any ideological interests.

Plus from a geopolictal/strategic point of view, Iran would also be keen for the global community to divert its attention back to Gaza again, as Israel (before this bout with Iran) was becoming increasingly isolated.

 

https://apnews.com/article/g7-italy-blinken-iran-bf8b33c3cebfe534a16675e6adc3fb0a
Israel gave US last-minute warning about drone attack on Iran, Italian foreign minister says at G7

 

You don't even know how much israel defense cost them vs Iran when they retaliated against them...

 

And you do?