Pre-match: The inevitable war with Iran

Maybe sooner. As the article says, 2027 is the target date, but prototype production is to be speeded for deployment to Ukraine, on the basis that the Ukrainians need something that's usable now even if it's not 100% ready.

The benefits in field-testing and working out the bugs before launching production are obvious.

 

Jordanian king Abdullah II has put himself in a dangerous position by helping to shoot down the Iranian drones.

 

Are you sure? I ask because Jordan ain’t Syria.

I once briefly dated a woman who said she was “Palestinian-Jordanian.” Her family had fled to Jordan but then they had to leave there too. I don’t think there are any Palestinian camps in Jordan anymore and that’s been the case for decades. (I think; apologies if I’m wrong.)

 

My analysis (see below) shows the actual interception rate against the MRBMs to have been between a low of less than 15% to no more than 85%. The latter very unlikely.

The US/Israel claimed 110 ballistic missiles had been fired, of which half had malfunctioned, leaving 55 to be intercepted. A majority of these 55 missiles were Shahab 3 (went into service in 2003 ) and Emad (2015) MRBMs with strong indications that perhaps a dozen Kheibar Shekan missiles (2022) were also used. Israel has not given any information on how many MRBMs were intercepted by the IDF except showing remnants of one single Emad missile that had been shot down. US and all the rest (UK, France, plus several Arab states) shot down 6 such missiles. Until Israel releases figures on how many ballistic missiles it claims to have intercepted, anywhere between a minimum of 9 of 55 to a maximum of 48 of 55 MRBMs fired hit their targets (e.g. Nevatim air base, another air base, possibly a radar and intelligence base called site 51 in the Negev, and a base in the Golan etc). At best, the interception rate by Israel and the US led coalition against MRBMs was 85% and at worst less than 15%.

If you ignore the propaganda and bogus math, some of this you can glean even from the analysis by the pro Israel Foundation for Defense of Democracies:
https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2024/04/16/what-we-can-learn-from-irans-attack-on-israel/
April 16, 2024 | Insight
What We Can Learn From Iran’s Attack on Israel

 

No-one cares.

 

There are 10 of them.

However, since Jordan gives Palestinians descended from 48-49 and West Bank Palestinians citizenship, people can work and many have left for suburbs if they are successful in whatever field.

This recent documentary (2024) gives a flavour of the situation.
https://www.france24.com/en/tv-show...ns-of-zarqa-three-generations-after-the-nakba

 

A former middle-east reporter just tweeted "oh no it's happening, Israel has attached a military base in Iran" but I've not seen anything in the media.

 

https://abcnews.go.com/International/live-updates/israel-gaza-hamas-war/?id=108860743

A U.S. official confirmed to ABC News Israeli missiles have hit a site in Iran. The official could not confirm whether Syria and Iraq sites were hit as well.
-ABC News' Martha Raddatz


if I was a betting man, I would bet that Israeli missiles have a greater success rate then Iranian missiles

 

I posted on the wrong thread, but like I said there, Israel should just have left it how it was with Iran.

 

Very worrying. Iran will have legal right under Article 51 of the UN Charter to retaliate, expect them to hit hard next time and Israel will retaliate. Sad to say but the war between those 2 has begun.

 

Why did we veto the UN resolution?

It's Obvious that we can't control Netanyahu

 

Your politicians sold out to them long ago....

 

I highly doubt it, Contrary to what people look like you believe, the Jews don't control the world.

But it is time for Biden to pussyup and tell Israel to fvck off, we are not in this escalation.

 

So what happens to the middle east when I wake up in the morning?

 

They don't need to control the world nor do I believe they do - they just buy the right politicians.

 

Some claims are that they targeted sites near nuclear facilities, also bombed locations in Iraq and Syria.

BREAKING: ISRAEL ARMY BOMBED AREAS NEAR ISFAHAN AND NATANZ WHICH CONTAINS IMPORTANT FACILITIES OF IRAN’S NUCLEAR PROGRAM pic.twitter.com/LOPdgNX5Uc

— Faizan Sarwar Khan (@faizansarwar__) April 19, 2024

We did not know about it (according to "sources")

A US official confirms to me that Israel has carried out a strike against Iran. Both the official and another senior US official say Israel indicated they would not attack nuclear targets. US didn't "green light" this attack, the 2nd official told me.

— Alex Marquardt (@MarquardtA) April 19, 2024

 

Bad, bad move Israel. ********. I don't think Iran were bluffing. Fully expect them to hit back twice as hard this time.

 

I think it's 80/20 the US get dragged into this with direct intervention.

 

Israel does have a very limited (>40) number of MRBMs (Jericho 3) with the range to hit Iran, but most of those are believed to carry nuclear weapons. There is no indication this 'show of force' involved those missiles. For now, Iran is reporting several drones (3) being shot down over Isfahan with eyewitnesses reporting hearing some loud noises, which can either be from air defense systems or small missiles fired from drones. The target appears to have an airbase housing Iranian fighter aircraft including F14s. There appear to be more serious attacks against targets in Syria and Iraq.

Unlike Israel, there are no restrictions on satellite imagery over Iran, the international media will spin the story in a way that fits the propaganda in mind, and Iranian "dissidents" can freely film things and feed fact or fiction as required by the spin. I await to hear what Israel has to say as the US is the side running with these stories for now. Israeli acknowledgment and declaration of intent will be significant in deciding the nature of Iran's response IMO.

 

https://www.barrons.com/news/iran-says-drones-shot-down-no-missile-attack-for-now-9a015995
Iran Says Drones Shot Down, 'No Missile Attack For Now'