Pre-match: The inevitable war with Iran

US can stay out. But that means not just offensively but also not to organize a coalition to shoot down Iranian missiles, drones etc.

 

This entire discussion is stupid.

It’s like a high schooler watching two 8 year olds yell at each other.

 

Wrong person to ask.
I havent been following the news last couple of days, and I dont really read IRI media that much.

Shahed 136 drones being used is the extent of my knowledge. But I would venture a guess, as I previously said, that Iran's latest missiles were not used. But dont quote me on that.

 

If this is true then why would Iranian state TV need to show damage footage from a fire in Chile instead?

 

A war with Iran almost certainly does not become a world war.



The last two world wars had European combatants with roughly equivalent levels of GDP. By contrast, today Israel's GDP (PPP) is $537 billion, Iran's is $1.8 trillion, and European/US GDP is ~50 trillion or more.

Even if Iran could reliably get all Sunni Arab states to remain out of the conflict (making it not a World War) and could get Russia involved (despite Russia getting its economy absolutely crushed by the war in Ukraine), it would be GDP of ~7-8 trillion versus 50+ trillion.

That isn't a world war. That's a few short, decisive battles, and the complete collapse of Iran and Russia as states.

 

Iranian state tv doesn't have reporters on the ground in Israel.

I watched Iranian television and what they were showing live initially were the raw videos being sent to them from those taking videos from inside or purporting to be from inside Israel and the West Bank etc. If they were duped by dissident exiles or the Israelis for the purpose of running fake videos intended to discredit them, its not the first time such stunts have been pulled and won't be the last. But you can see their coverage for yourself on the internet here. The videos and images they are showing (when covering the strikes) are the same as many in the western sources as well, except for the emphasis and focus being on those videos showing the hits.

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/14/...ld-oil-iran-attack-israel-intl-hnk/index.html
US stocks tumble as investors await Israel’s response to Iran’s attack

 

Well, Bibi could simply just not strike back at Iran. I mean, I think the New Jersey earthquake caused more damage than Iran"s attack on Sunday morning (despite the American media obsessing about it for 3 days and counting now). I know Israel said they would retaliate, but that could mean any number of things. Not necessarily an airstrike at Iran.

 

Is this supposed to mean something?

 

Putin getting nervous about his drone supplier:



https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-middle-east-68822407

 

Of course. He doesn't want to lose the oil and military supplies.

 

That’s your ********ing answer?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?! Wasn’t “no video instead of fake video” an option?!?!?!?!?!?!?!

I almost never respond to you because you’re crazy but I couldn’t resist this one.

 

Isn't Russia an oil exporter?

I really don't get the whole oil market. Like Russia, the US produces tons of oil, and its neighbouring allies Canada probably does too (for its population). Yet the slightest disturbance in the middle east caused gas prices in the US to go up 25 cents recently. And yeah, when gas is $4.50/gallon come October its not going to help Biden's re-election chances.

 

What a stupid argument! It was on Washington Institute's own channel. You're denying video proof, which would be damning in court. That's how obstinate you're being

Yes, he HAD an entertaining show that was a gateway to the anti-establishment left & used as a platform for academics. What does his de-evolution have to do with me? I haven't cared for it in years. The actual left doesn't have permanent allies, they have permanent interests, out of principles.

Don't you currently pimp TYT or even worse the MSNBC/CNN's of the world? They're financially corrupted and have an exponentially worse/more destructive track record.

I could bring up an infinitely worse incident in the past to tarnish you, but I won't stoop to your level & thread-jack further. If you want to discuss it via p.m, we can.

 

Because at all times the supply of oil is very close to demand. If demand increases there is no place where you can get extra supply quickly thus the price goes up.

 

no yes yes

 

Also the price you pay at the pump isn’t what THAT barrel costs. It’s the price it’ll take to replace that gas.

Yeah oil companies are quicker to increase than decrease.

 

Petroleum and gasoline are international markets. Increases in demand or decreases in supply elsewhere will affect American gas prices.

 

So you've de-evolved like Dore, just in a parallel way. CNN got caught running their stories thru an IDF censor - doing foreign propaganda. Imagine if it were Russia. This is wildly hypocritical.

No comment on authenticating (as if it was needed) the pro-Israel think-tank video? Or were you just looking for an ad hominem/red herring so as to discredit and not discuss the implications.

 

And also petroleum is a global commodity that trades in markets around the world, both as spot oil and via derivatives contracts. The price of a barrel is not different in Texas than it is in Italy. The added cost is all taxes. Regardless, the price of a barrel of crude oil is an international set price pegged to the US dollar (see Bretton Woods Agreement)

 

Gerard Araud, former French ambassador to Israel, the UN and the USA has an excellent Twitter feed which is well worth following (not only on geopolitics BTW). Just before the Iranian counter-strike he retweeted and highly recommended a French analyst, whose take (via Google Translate) was:

Rationally, Tehran has everything to lose by launching a war against Israel. The United States will reduce them to dust and they know it. It is not in their interest. The Persians are intelligent, shrewd and not the suicidal type, especially at a time when they are finalizing the nuclear program they spent decades developing.
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That said, she also caveated with the following

But things are moving a lot this evening in the region and . . .t he US claims very seriously that Tehran is preparing to strike Israel itself and this must be taken seriously, even if the deeper logic escapes us.
​

Political scientists long have noted that erratic government decision-making is correlated with a narrowing of a governing group's base of support and that decisions which are illogical, even within that group's long-demonstrated understanding of rationality become more common and, in time, more serious in terms of their consequences. That's how the Tories wound up with Boris Johnson and a lettuce and the GOP got the orange monster. '

With Khamanei on the way out and looking to secure the succession, that's been happening in Iran: see the recent election turnout. I'd be interested in @Iranian Monitor comments on that.

 

So the "actual left" doesn't contain many human beings??

BTW who/what are the "actual; left"

 

I watched that video, twice. There are missiles shown flying through the air in it. The only hits it shows are of interceptors on those missiles, and not many of those.

The damage to Nevatim may be greater than let on, which wouldn't be a surprise; it's a military base, there's fighting going on, etc. But there is still zero evidence or reporting from any reputable source about the Ramon airbase being devastated or anything like it.

 

Yes, the genuine left in America is particularly small, & effectively has no power. Which is a shame.

But nothing lasts forever. There's always a breaking point/epiphany. This has awaken some.