The Inevitable War with Iran is Looking a Little More Imminent

Yup, for some history of a conflict starts at their convenient moment, not the real monent.

 

That's true for literally every argument about a conflict ever, because it's incredibly unusual for two sides to agree about when a conflict actually began.

 

What would that deliver, other than an excuse for any country on the receiving side to target other countries leaders.
Anybody believing the death/assasination of a geriatric leader will lead to changes, while the system which the figurehead represents is unbroken, should have their brains checked.
Just to make things clear:
YOU CAN'T BOMB A COUNTRY INTO CHANGE. YOU HAVE TO INVADE THAT COUNTRY.

 

I report, you distort.

Bibi shoulda just stuck to the framework. So now he's put his own people in peril. Don't elect a selfish dick like we've learned...or did we?

 

On top of that, the population is behind their government. I expect Israel to pull every tricks to provoke Iran into breaking the cease-fire via covert operations within Iran and its oversee assets via proxies.

Iran will be under pressure to accept a formal mutual defense pact with Russia, a deal they refused to sign. Iranians on this forum can correct me if I'm wrong but there's still some mistrust towards Russia due to the Soviets past occupation and of course, they want to preserve their strategic autonomy.

There's an opportunity for the US to rethink their diplomatic approach towards Iran. The elephant in the room is Palestinians, is supporting the genocidal ambitions of Israel worth undermining long term global strategic goals by pushing Iran into the arms of Russia and China?

 

There is too much of an emphasis on the structural integrity of the facilities. Which I dont get. Its a room surrounded with concrete walls... I would think the content is what matters.
And the fact is that Iran has moved its stockpile of highly enriched uraniuam and advanced centrifuges, before the strike.

And no one seem to know where those things are. Iran is not gonna let inspectors in anymore.

So given that, this war was pointless and political theatre.

 

Someone in here mocked my assesment of the impact of the bombing.
Good to see it being supported by the guys who know what and how.

 

Knowing the Iranian government, it is fiercly independent as far as entering military alliances. Meaning it is loathed to it, regardless if we are talking about Russia and China.

They fear Russia could bottleneck Irans war effort against Israel, if a new round breaks out.
The Russians have a soft spot for Israel on the account of the numbers of Israelis of Russian origin living there.

 

Mmm, another source supporting my "analyses".

 

Which is nice to put us back in terrorist crosshairs over a lame brained plan to keep Bibi out of prison. Two felons with sympathy for each other is not a winning Mideast recipe.

 

On top of that Iran already, and it was known beforehand, was building/digging a new site even deeper and better protected that Fordow site.
Someone in here lol-ed about 16 truck not enough to transport those centrifuges. Given how big those machines are, it would be impossible to relocate them. But isnot it a fact that they didnot want to relocate them at all? You build them according to your latest upgraded specifications in your new location. What mattered was to get the stuff you were working on safely to the new spot.

 

I didn't plan to post in this thread but I find the above
very disappointing!

 

In what sense?

 

That Bibi/Likudnik critics are cheering for the Mullahs to "win"

Borrowed from the Gaza thread which is more bombed out by stupidity than Gaza itself.

 

I've read some of the thread and not noticed "anyone" express support for the Mullahs.

 

Fordow can be taken out but it requires tactical nukes.
But that would have unintended consequences and open a whole other can of worms. It would totally erode treaties or institutions set in place to prevent the use of nuclear weapons. You could see Russia using them in Ukraine, or China using them. Its a geenie that is best if its kept in that bottle.

It seems to me the only viable option is to have a negotiated settlement with compromises on both sides. Zero enrichment is a non-starter. But Iran would probably have to agree to cap enrichmennt at 3,5 percent. Get rid of the 60 percent uranium, which has no civilian purpose.
The 20 percent for the research reactor could be supplied by Russia.

What will be interesting to see is what kind of fallout this will have on Netanyahu in Israel. He exposed Israel to a destructive war. With Israeli casualties. And not much to show for it.
He did not achieve regime change. He barely set back the nuclear program.

The way I see it there are two scenarios. He might ignite a war again and hoping to get the US involved, and to try and save himself. As others have pointed out, escalating war and opening new fronts to save his own skin has been a winning concept for Bibi up to this point.

Second scenario would be that his position as PM may be untenable and he have come to the end of the road politically.

 

No I won't. Because if you had truly been "monitoring Iran" for 45 years as you claim, somewhere along the line you should've heard about the 1953 coup and how many Iranians still distrust America and by extension, its ME lapdog.

 

I think the facility that most probably was destroyed was Natanz. But as I understand it, that facility used the oldest generation of centrifuges (IR-1) which were extremely inefficient and Iran was looking to get rid of them anyway. Fordow has (or had, if they were moved) the much more advanced IR-6 and IR-8 centrifuges. Those centrifuges are also in the new facility, if Im not mistaken.

But anyway, this war has been so unnecessary and a total shit show.

 

Some mock anything that doesn't fit their view of the world instead of objectively and respectfully debate it. It is what it is

 

Being anti-regime change through external forces doesn't mean supporting the Islamist regime.

 

I think it depends on what the purpose of the war was in the first place.
Given being mocked for suggesting that Fordow wasnot looking very damaged and deducting from the pictures and the penetrating capabilities of the busters that most likely the site hasnot been damaged at all (my thought was to hit all the entrances, so you can't access the facilities for a very long time), the assesment of US intelligence support my initial findings.
So the only sites thoroughly destroyed were the actually redundant outdated ones, and the ones that really matter (the new one and the fordow one), basically are still up and running.
So this operation, at least for bibi, had other gains in mind, not the destruction of the nuclear ambitions.

 

I think Bibis gamble was that a decaptiation and dragging the US in would result in the collapse of the IRI and at least a marked degradation of the nuclear program.
I also think he was banking on the US to join the campaign against regime and vital infrastructure targets to destroy the Iranian state. I firmly believe he was dismayed that US strikes did not extend beyond nuke sites.

Having failed those objectives, his political career may have come to and end and he could be facing jail time.

 

as the elder statesman here I will take your feedback to heart, maybe cheerleading for the mullahs is a bit harsh, time for me to find a suitable distraction and take a break for reflection, and peace.

 

Fair

 

There’s always Syria!!!