The inevitable war with China

Well, you can't really because that's the definition of being unpredictable. Could Trump go to war with China? Maybe. Could Trump be China's best friend? Maybe. Will he do one and then the other? Maybe.

Trump likes being unpredictable because it demonstrates cleverness, helps in the kind of business Trump does, and lets underdogs like North Korea have an outsized impact on the world, which he admires. But a powerful nation has to be predictable. There are rules for international interactions because otherwise the chance for tragedy is high. A good example from Trump's first term is actually North Korea, where Trump's totally unexpected hard line in the 2019 direct talks with them sent North Korea away from the path of normalization and on this very war oriented, increasingly nuclear armed trajectory they are on.

Could Trump take a Chinese provocation designed to have a certain message and completely overreact to it? It's a worry.

 

from the NYTimes: The U.S. Army Prepares for War With China

Forget the Marines, who can get anywhere quickly, because they travel light
Or the Navy, which practically lives in the Pacific.
The big and cumbersome Army is trying to transform itself to deploy quickly to Asia, if needed.

Interesting how the Army will go about this. as I understand it, they're organized around the Stryker Brigade for quick deployment? Abrams are just too heavy. The USMC got rid of their Abrams because to deploy the 4 Abrams and their supplies for an MEU used up almost 50% of sealift capacity/tonnage in an MEU landing ship.

 

China is building a new class of ships. They are large barges that have legs that reach the seafloor and a very long ramp to reach the shore. They act as a make-shift pier, and are exactly the thing you need between the initial assault on Taiwan and the point when China captures a real port. They serve no other purpose than providing logistics for an invasion of Taiwan and are a good indication of how serious China is on pursuing that project.

 

Trumps clumsy rhetoric has produced some movement in Mexico and Panama.

First off, Mexico's President has been reducing Chinese imports over the last two months. No surprise there, Mexico's economy is completely dependent on exports to the US
Mexico's Sheinbaum lays out plan to cut Chinese imports ...
As of Monday, Panama has started auditing Hutchinson. The General Comptroller of Panama, Anel Flores, was very hostile to Hutchinson remarking that they have not received any income in three years and labeled the company a 'colonial enclave that replaced the Americans'.
Panama Launches Audit of Canal Port Operator Amid ...