Geez...Paul Ryan may end up Speaker. "Not the worst, not the best, just what we'd be stuck with!"-- Toby Ziegler
for those looking for change, definitely ain't gonna happen: http://billmoyers.com/2015/10/27/th...il&utm_term=0_4ebbe6839f-e4f40f645b-168254577
The only time that phrase is accurate is when it's used to describe the USMNT's chances of winning the WC!
Paul Ryan Elected 62nd House Speaker - Washington Post https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ul-ryan-set-to-be-elected-62nd-house-speaker/
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/07/upshot/why-democrats-cant-win.html From the Democrat thread, good article (I did not see it posted) about the problems for the Democrats in the House.
I understand those who don't go to dailykos for policy. I don't either. But it's usually a pretty good repository for electoral news in down ballot races. Anyway, they have an article today that is a rundown of the Dems' chances of taking the house. The article says that the Dems would have to win almost every vaguely winnable race, and part of the reason is poor candidate recruitment. (That's probably what happened in NC...their map is all white, meaning no competitive races, in NC. There should be 1 or 2 slightly vulnerable GOPs.) The article also states the obvious, namely, that if Trump gets the nomination, who the hell knows what might happen, especially this early.
Bump How come no posts from the 2018 race? Can Republicans reduce the gap or take over the House of reps? Or will Democrats hold it and possibly increase their lead? If I am reading this correctly 270 to win is forecasting 22 toss up races, 6 held by GOP, and 16 held by Dems. https://www.270towin.com/2020-house-election/consensus-2020-house-forecast
I'm liking the Dems chances to hold the House in 2020. My congresswoman, Chrissy Houlahan, should get re-elected.
It would be shocking if the Democrats lost the House. The Democrats gained 6 seats in 2016, and there's a good chance of a single-digit change this year. The possibilities of Democrats gain seats and Republicans gain seats are much more even than the possibilities of Democrats control the House and Republicans control the House. I think you could make a lot of money if you bet that Republicans would gain the House and you were right. https://projects.jhkforecasts.com/house-forecast/ (hereafter JHK) predicts 234.8 to 200.2 with the Democrats having a 98.2 percent chance of control. If the Republicans gain the House, Trump will win, the Republicans will keep the Senate, and who knows how far from Democracy we will get. I don't have any meaningful votes for president (Biden wins New York), senator (no election), representative (Democratic incumbent Kathleen Rice is predicted to win by 20.2 percent according to JHK), or governor (no election). Furthermore Democratic state senator John Brooks may win unopposed because the Republican challenger works for the Suffolk County Board of Elections in a district that has Nassau County where I live and Suffolk County. He said he would recuse himself from counting votes in his race, but a court disagreed and said he can't run and it was too late to get another Republican. The Republicans talked about appealing to a higher court.
Cook predict that the Dems will win between 1 and 10 additional seats in November. The D's running in competitive seats have massive war chests as well.
My new top candidate, Tricia Zunker, has a whopping 0.7% chance of winning Wi-7th. We'll see about that. She has one more vote than she did three weeks ago. I am sure that will change things!
Laws vary from state to state. If Alabama waited until the even year 2018 to have a special Senate election like most states do, Republicans would have been able to run somebody other than Roy Moore, and Democrat Doug Jones wouldn't be a senator. If Maine didn't become the only state to use ranked choice voting, Republican incumbent Bruce Poliquin would have won District 2 in 2018, which was won by Jared Golden, who was the only House member to vote for one article of impeachment and against one article.