Pick up 7 seats... in 2016? What if Hillary wins by like an LBJ-Goldwater margin (or Nixon-McGovern)? 7 seats would be disappointing. So the Dems can't regain the House until 2022 or something?
No, they will pick up 7 seats this year (assuming the forecast has no error rate, of course). That will put them at 208 seats, nine shy of a majority. Next election, remove the tenth-most-distant election from this year's cycle (that'd be either 1994, 1996, or 1998 I'd say without actually going back) and re-average.
Beats me. The generic House ballot was my prior indicator before being exposed to this, and this (average prior 10 elections ) predicted 218 seats for the Democrats in 2012, so it was off by a non-trivial margin. But it did predict an increase, so there's that!
GOP has selected formed Ryan aide Eilse Stefanik. http://www.wwnytv.com/news/local/Republicans-Officially-Endorse-Stefanik-For-Congress-244314151.html No Democrat has indicated they wish to run. Likely return to red in this seat.
NY-21 update: Two-time loser Matt Doheny hopes we'll all forget about his BWI and elect him this time with the help of some old line moderate GOP support: http://atr.rollcall.com/former-nrcc-chairman-endorses-in-competitive-new-york-primary/?pos=epol http://www.wwnytv.com/news/local/Fe...epublican-Primary-For-Congress-246222291.html
Dingell's wife, Deborah, may run for the seat. She will turn 60 this year. Dingell's father first won the district back in 1933, so if she runs and wins than the Dingell family could conceivably end up holding that seat for 100 years!
GOP will keep the house but in CA they will see further losses in the house. Was in DTLA this weekend for the democratic state convention and all eyes are on taking out more GOP CA congressmen. Dennham, valadao, miller seat, Royce, McKeon. Kinda sad that the GOP will be down to 10 seats in the land of Nixon and Regan.
Actual results, from http://www.foxnews.com/politics/201...-beats-alex-sink-in-florida-special-election/ Jolly (R) 48.5% Sink (D) 46.7% Overby (Libertarian): 4.8% PPP poll, from Germerica's link: Sink 48% Jolly 45% Overby: 6% Margin of error: 3.7% The actual results are within the margin of error. Technically, PPP was correct -- they provided windows for the expected results, and the actual results were in those windows. I'm going to go ahead and predict that you (VFish) won't agree with this, but it is factually incorrect to state that PPP was wrong. The only reason why you think that would be because you don't understand statistics.
Trust me, I understand statistics fine. I also understand this was a close race where the Dems spent a lot of national resources because they thought they could win it. Larry Sabato had it leans Democratic also. Sink ran on a strategy of 'Fix ObamaCare" while framed ObamaCare as huge government intrusion into our lives. That said, I'll ask again: Harbinger? Or close local race.
Harbinger. Libertarians will underperform their polling this fall, with the difference going to Republicans...
It's a district that she carried in 2010, Obama carried twice, and a race in which Democrats outspent Republicans 4-to-1 (otherwise known as the "race Democrats can't afford to lose.") Here's a take on what it means..."The biggest influence of the outcome will almost certainly be fundraising. Democrats are going to have a much harder time persuading donors to open their pocketbooks to Senate and congressional campaigners in hopes of holding their Senate majority, and the prospects of a Democrat takeover of the House are now very slim indeed. No one will publicly say so, of course, but the instinct of lefty moneybags will be to put their chips on a Hillary Clinton 2016 presidential campaign."
Reading the in-depth insights gleaned from your analyses over the next ten months will be rather exciting for me.
Right. Sink was the handpicked DNC candidate with huge national support. She had name recognition and she since she wasn’t in D.C. she didn’t have to carry the baggage of voting for ObamaCare.
I don't care what money she had or who supported her you can't put lipstick on a pig it's still a pig. She was horrible.
GOP will keep the house and right now will take the senate. But November is a lifetime from now we shall see.
That doesn't reflect well on the national party, given that they hand-picked her, drove other candidates out of the Democratic primary, and poured a crap-ton of cash into her campaign. They obviously thought she was worthy enough to have Bill Clinton campaign for her. We'll see if they give her another go-around in November, but she lost to a no-name lobbyist FFS. That's just an awful showing.