The House

Discussion in 'Elections' started by Riz, Oct 24, 2008.

  1. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
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    Birmingham City FC
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    United States
    It might be too early for us, but the DCCC might want to start expanding now rather than later.
     
  2. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Sure and the rest of the country (blue districts) will vote against them, but the red districts will love that shit.
    Do not confuse national politics with regional politics, how many purple seats are actually for grabs?

    Aren't you the one that claims there are no real "independent" voters? So most people already hate the VP or already love the VP.

    Or are you suggesting that the VP pick may actually swing some "moderates" :eek:
     
  3. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
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    Birmingham City FC
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    United States
    It's all about turnout. There are no undecideds, but in 2010 the GOP picked up 63 seats because all their people were mad as hell and the Democrats weren't gun-ho about voting. If the Republicans think their standard-bearers are going to sink them, they won't be excited and won't go vote.
     
  4. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Well that maybe for RINOS. But the Republican base will like the pick and they will turn out.

    Now Obama may get people that turned out for him in 2008 but did not turn out for 2010 and that may help the dems win some house seats, but that is more pro Obama vote than Anti Republican vote.

    Now the Republican Anti Obama Care wave of 2010 may have died down some what and Ryan may be a desperate attempt for the Reps to bring it back up, that may back fire and help the democrats.

    Other than that, the Reps will still hold the House.

    I would imagine it could help the Democrats keep the Senate, but the House is as much a done deal as it is the Presidential election. IMO.
     
  5. uclacarlos

    uclacarlos Member+

    Aug 10, 2003
    east coast
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    Nat'l Team:
    Spain
    They'll like the pick, but the base is only about 30% of the voters in the country, if that, and truth be told, they just aren't into Mittens.

    Brummie's right: this is all about turn out, and i just don't think Ryan will move the GOTV campaigns enough to send Mittens to the White Hizzie.
     
  6. Mattbro

    Mattbro Member+

    Sep 21, 2001
    Obama is on the ballot again, and he will have coattails. Probably not as long as in 2008, but once the fall campaign heats up and he goes into full campaign mode (which he's stronger at than governing), he could generate some enthusiasm again. Romney was already starting to tank prior to the Ryan pick, and I'm starting to imagine that Ryan is Palin Part II in terms of how scary he'll be to most of the electorate. Remember that after he unveiled his budget plan, the Dems won that seat in upstate NY that they hadn't held since the Civil War. People thought Palin was dumb and annoying, and somewhat of a scary prospect as first-in-line to succeed the old man, but I bet the Dems will successfully be able to convince people that Ryan would actually be influencing White House policy if the GOP ticket were to win.
     
  7. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Ok I see where the confusion happened.

    This thread is about the House of representatives, not the White house.

    So yes, Obama will win the white house (Ryan or no Ryan) but the Republicans will keep the House of representatives (Ryan or no Ryan).

    Brummie deep down knows that, it is just his Democrat side getting ahead of his scientific side IMO.

    1. No way in hell Ryan is as bad (in candidate terms) as Palin.

    2. But yes Ryan is a base pick more than a expanding the rep electorate pick.

    3. I doubt that Romney will win Wisconsin, but we will see.
     
  8. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    My Democrat side has nothing to do with the fact that before redistricting, the GOP could easily have lost 20-30 seats and even afterwards have to defend so many that a loss of 10-20 isn't out of the question.
     
  9. Mattbro

    Mattbro Member+

    Sep 21, 2001
    I haven't analyzed the races in detail, and maybe my Democratic side is getting ahead of my scientific side, but the House is unbelievably unpopular right now and the electorate over the past few cycles has been in a throw-the-bums-out mood each time. Prior to the Ryan pick it seemed like there were emerging signs of a potential landslide for Obama - I'm trying to imagine Ryan changing that momentum and I can't seem to. Seems more like the base will now be more rabid than with e.g. a Pawlenty, but Romney/Ryan will turn off more centrist voters than Romney/Pawlenty would have.
     
  10. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    So you really think the Dems are going to go 194 + 20?

    Even if that happens, the Reps would still control the house right?

    Ok, I will let you be AB.

    We will just agree to disagree on this one.
     
  11. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Unpopular for both parties.

    The question is how many safe republican seats vs safe democratic seats.

    As AB pointed out, elections have consequences. Republicans control most State governments, they gerrymandered the shit out of the election districts to protect republicans.

    Any thing could happen, but the seats in play are not enough (in most projections) to swing the house to the democrats.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/house/2012_elections_house_map.html
     
  12. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    If the Republicans get 62 million voters out to the polls the way they did in 2004, they keep the House. If they get anything short of that (and here 61.5 is good enough), the odds that they lose 20-30 House seats go up pretty substantially. I'm by no means basing this off anything other than a generic swing. My favorite go-to-guy with the House, Scott Elliott of electionprojection.com, estimates the Democrats will get 2-5 House seats. However, he also thought GWB had California in 2004 locked up, so there's that.
     
  13. uclacarlos

    uclacarlos Member+

    Aug 10, 2003
    east coast
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    Nat'l Team:
    Spain
     
  14. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    To me, trusting a guy who wrote that is like going to Dick Cheney or Paul Wolfowitz for foreign policy advice. That's too big of a ********up to ever overcome.
     
  15. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
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    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    He made that prediction when Howard Dean was the frontrunner, so I don't hold that against him. Dean would have won maybe Vermont.
     
  16. NMMatt

    NMMatt Member+

    Apr 5, 2006
    No way. The days of Johnson/Reagan style landslides are over. There just aren't that many voters that are getable by candidates of either side even if you are running a Dean or a Gingrich. Dean would have had to lose by 13 points to lose CA, and he'd still have carried IL, CT, MD, NY, VT, RI, MA and DC.
     
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  17. Mattbro

    Mattbro Member+

    Sep 21, 2001
    Yeah, how would he have been worse than Kerry? Maybe if Dean had been the nominee, people would have voted FOR him rather than just AGAINST Bush.
     
    Q*bert Jones III repped this.
  18. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  19. Dr. Wankler

    Dr. Wankler Member+

    May 2, 2001
    The Electric City
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    American Brummie repped this.
  20. JohnR

    JohnR Member+

    Jun 23, 2000
    Chicago, IL
    Dang that's a cute kitty. Dang I like kitties better than House reps.
     
  21. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Why is the other candidate not taking him up on the offer?

    I so hope they bring that up during a Debate.
     
  22. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States


    Really, slim possibility, I guess that Mitt also has a slim possibility of winning the white house (not really).

    Counting the solid Republican seats and the likley republican seats, the Reps would have about 200-205 seats, so if they can just win the leaning republican seats, they could afford to lose all toss ups (in a land slide slection) and still hold the house.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/house/2012_elections_house_map.html

    This site has the dems as +6
    http://www.electionprojection.com/2012elections/house12.php

    Intrade gives the Dems a 26.7% chance of taking the white house
    http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=639651
    Reps.
    http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=639652

    This guys makes some points of hope for the Dems
    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...y_democrats_could_take_back_the_house_in_2012
    This guy is even more optimistic.
    http://election.princeton.edu/2012/09/20/house-outlook-for-2013-take-2/
     
  23. Q*bert Jones III

    Q*bert Jones III The People's Poet

    Feb 12, 2005
    Woodstock, NY
    Club:
    DC United
    Now that the rules require a supermajority to govern, having a majority is over-rated.
     
  24. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  25. NMMatt

    NMMatt Member+

    Apr 5, 2006
    [​IMG]
    If Elliot and the RCP average are accurate we'd have an outlier, but not much worse than 2006 when the Democrats flipped the house and threw a bunch of Republican incumbents out of office.
     
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