The House

Riz · Oct 24, 2008

Apologies if there is a House thread floating around, but damned if I could find it.

From The Fix - Friday's House line - the first 25:

To the Line!

25. Wisconsin's 8th district (D): This race, a rematch between Rep. Steve Kagen (D) and state Rep. John Gard (R), has seen significant attention from both national parties of late. That the cash-strapped National Republican Congressional Committee is up with ads in the district -- one of the VERY few challengers for which that is the case -- is a sign of the opportunity they believe the seat represents. (Previous ranking: N/A)

24. New Mexico's 2nd district (R): While New Mexico's 1st district has drawn most of the national attention, former Lea County Commissioner Harry Teague (D) has run a solid (and well-funded) campaign that puts him an even money bet against 2002 candidate Ed Tinsley (R) on Nov. 4. (Previous ranking: N/A)

23. Pennsylvania's 3rd district (R): Every two years Democratic strategists would look at the demographics of Rep. Phil English's (R) northwestern Pennsylvania district, and insist he could be beaten. And yet, no serious challenger ever emerged -- until now. Democrat Kathy Dahlkemper is ahead of English today and that's bad news for any incumbent with 18 days left before an election. (Previous ranking: N/A)

22. Louisiana's 6th district (D): Rep. Don Cazayoux (D) has strengthened his position in recent weeks but still faces a tough race against a two-headed opponent: state Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) and state Rep. Michael Jackson, a Democrat running as an independent. Much depends on how much of the black vote Jackson is able to siphon away from Cazayoux. (Previous ranking: 16)
Sarah Palin
Oct. 8, 2008: Rep. Dave Reichert, R-Wash., speaks during a debate in Bellevue, Wash. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)

21. Washington's 8th district (R): Rep. Dave Reichert (R) is probably the only Republican who could hold this Seattle-area seat that is moving strongly in Democrats' favor. But, even Reichert's local fame (he helped capture the Green River Killer) might not be enough to insulate him from a terrible Republican year. Two new polls show 2006 nominee Darcy Burner (D) leading the race. (Previous ranking: 24)

20. Ohio's 15th district (R): This race, decided by 1,500 (or so) votes in 2006, has the potential to be another nailbiter this November. Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy, the Democratic nominee in 2006, started the race with an advantage but state Sen. Steve Stivers (R) has closed the gap. Can he close it enough? (Previous ranking: 20)

19. Alabama's 5th district (D): This is a seat where the two sides vehemently disagree. Democrats believe state Sen. Parker Griffith (D) is putting the race away (and have internal polling to prove it) while Republicans see Griffith losing ground to three-time nominee Wayne Parker. That's why they have elections. (Previous ranking: 19)

18. Florida's 8th district (R): When Rep. Ric Keller (R) won this Orlando-area seat in 2000, it was one of the most competitive contests in the country. Keller's problem is that over the next eight years -- despite a series of non-serious challenges -- he never cemented his ties to the seat. And that leaves him in a world of trouble against wealthy attorney Alan Grayson (D). (Previous ranking: 25)

17. Colorado's 4th district (R): Can Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R) save herself from herself? Republicans insist the incumbent's prospects are improving but she is a notorious underperformer in what should be a safe GOP district. (Previous ranking: 8)

16. Nevada's 3rd district (R): Rep. Jon Porter (R), after a series of surprisingly easily races, is now in a bitter (and expensive) battle against 2006 gubernatorial nominee Dina Titus (D). Should Porter survive -- an iffy proposition right now -- he will almost certainly leave the seat in two years to challenge Sen Harry Reid (D). (Previous ranking: 22)

15. New Mexico's 1st district (R): In a neutral political year, Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White (R) would probably win this Albuquerque-based district. But, this isn't a neutral political year so Albuquerque City Councilman Martin Heinrich is the favorite but not by much. (Previous ranking: 13)

14. New Hampshire's 1st district (D): In a cycle where Republicans don't feel particularly good about their chances almost anywhere, this seat is a rare exception. Private GOP polling has former Rep. Jeb Bradley (R) ahead of Rep. Carol Shea Porter (D) and the NRCC is spending on his behalf. (Previous ranking: 14)

13. New Jersey's 7th district (R): Polling provides contradictory results in this open seat district being vacated by Rep. Mike Ferguson (R). A poll done for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee shows 2006 nominee Linda "Big Spender" Stender with a nine-point edge over state Sen. Leonard "The Lance Dance" Lance (R). But a Monmouth University poll puts Lance in the lead 41 percent to 37 percent. Who's right? Who knows? This seems likely to be a very close race. (Previous ranking: 10)

12. New Jersey's 3rd district (R): New Jersey is a strange place for politics. Because it lacks a media market of its own -- most of the state is covered by Philadelphia and New York City -- voters don't tend to pay much attention until the very end of the race. And so, it's not surprising that a recent poll shows state Sen. John Adler (D) ahead of Medford Mayor Chris Myers 38 percent to 34 percent with nearly as many people (29 percent) undecided. Adler's huge fundraising edge should come to bear on television in the final weeks and he remains the favorite. (Previous ranking: 9)

11. Alaska's At-Large district (R): It's amazing but true -- Rep. Don Young (R) still has a chance to win re-election despite the controversy swirling around. If he does beat state Rep. Ethan Berkowitz (D), Young will have Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to thank. (Previous ranking: 1)

10. Illinois' 11th district (R): This open seat contest made national news earlier this week when Vice President Dick Cheney canceled a fundraiser for concrete magnate Marty Ozinga due to an irregular heartbeat. In a race expected to be close, state Sen. Debbie Halvorson (D) seems nearly certain to receive a boost from home state Sen. Barack Obama's presence at the top of the ticket. (Previous ranking: 11)

9. Ohio's 16th district (R): State Sen. John Boccieri appears to have recovered from a bit of a rough spot as a candidate during the summer months and once again is the odds-on favorite to claim the seat being vacated by Rep. Ralph Regula (R). Boccieri has a cash edge over fellow state Sen. Kirk Schuring (R) and a Democratic poll released earlier this month showed him ahead comfortably. (Previous ranking: 12)

8. Pennsylvania's 11th district (D): The Fix recently spent a night in Scranton (Catholic field hockey beat the University of Scranton 3-1!), and saw a few of Rep. Paul Kanjorski's (D) television ads. They were, um, not good. Kanjorski appears to still have a political heartbeat in his race against Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta (R) but it is faint. (Previous ranking: 7)
Sarah Palin
Rep. Tom Feeney (R-Fla.)(The Washington Post/ Robert A. Reeder)

7. Florida's 24th district (R): Rep. Tom Feeney (R) realized how much trouble he was in a little too late. By the time he started to fight back against former state Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (D), the damage was done. Chalk another loss up to ties to former influence peddler Jack Abramoff. (Previous ranking: 18)

6. Virginia's 11th district (R): Fairfax County Board of Supervisors Chairman Gerry Connolly (D) is now on TV in the costly Washington (D.C.) media market. (The Fix knows -- we've seen the ads!). It's probably a precautionary measure given the strong Democratic tilt of northern Virginia. (Previous ranking: 6)

5. Texas' 22nd district (D): Rep. Nick Lampson (D) won this Houston-area seat thanks to the controversies surrounding retiring Rep. Tom DeLay (R) in 2006. That unique set of circumstances won't repeat itself again. (Previous ranking: 5)

4. Arizona's 1st district (R): The only reason we dropped this race a few slots from the last Line was the fact that we believe the margin in this vast district will be slightly smaller than those in the races ranked above it. But, former state Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) is going to win. (Previous ranking: 2)

3. New York's 25th district (R): A new Democratic poll showed 2006 nominee Dan Maffei (D) ahead of former Onondaga County Legislature chairman Dale Sweetland (R) by 18 points. Can Maffei win by double digits? (Previous ranking: 4)

2. New York's 13th district (R): Welcome Rep. Mike McMahon (D)! (Previous ranking: 2)
Sarah Palin
Oct. 26, 2006: Tim Mahoney waits for the start of a debate, at a West Palm Beach, Fla. TV station. (AP Photo/J. Pat Carter)

1. Florida's 16th district (D): A new number one! The revelations regarding Rep. Tim Mahoney's (D) not-so-private life seem certain to doom him at the ballot box if he doesn't try to retire first. Either way, attorney Tom Rooney (R) is almost certain to be in Congress next January. (Previous ranking: 21)
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Riz · Oct 24, 2008

I'm also having way too much fun with this:

http://www.dropdon.com/

fatbastard · Oct 24, 2008

6. Virginia's 11th district (R): Fairfax County Board of Supervisors Chairman Gerry Connolly (D) is now on TV in the costly Washington (D.C.) media market. (The Fix knows -- we've seen the ads!). It's probably a precautionary measure given the strong Democratic tilt of northern Virginia. (Previous ranking: 6)
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I'm pretty sure this is the guy I heard the attack ad on yesterday that made my jaw hit the floor.
Connolly, too corrupt for even Congress!.

I assume the guy running the ad is just corrupt enough

Knave · Oct 24, 2008

Riz said: ↑

From The Fix - Friday's House line - the first 25:
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From the second 25:

47. California's 4th district (R): When scandal-tarred Republican Rep. John Doolittle (R) retired earlier this year, it was supposed to take this GOP-leaning northern California seat off the table. Not so fast. Charlie Brown, who came within a whisker of beating Doolittle in 2006, has run as an outsider and gotten traction by attacking state Sen. Tom McClintock (R) as a career politician.
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This is my district. Brown seems to have everything going for him right now, money, good polls. Everything. But the reality is this district is the reddest place in California. So even though the GOP nominated a carpet-bagging Southern Californian for this Northern California district, that "R" after his name is going to help him a lot. I expect Brown to take Nevada County by a large margin. The counties to the north don't count for much because there aren't that many voters there. The question is whether Brown can hold even in Placer County. And that I just don't know.

Katie! · Oct 24, 2008

22. Louisiana's 6th district (D): Rep. Don Cazayoux (D) has strengthened his position in recent weeks but still faces a tough race against a two-headed opponent: state Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) and state Rep. Michael Jackson, a Democrat running as an independent. Much depends on how much of the black vote Jackson is able to siphon away from Cazayoux.
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If the signs around here count for anything, Cazayoux has it.

Also, he's family ... so he better get it.

riverplate · Oct 31, 2008

National G.O.P. Ending Aid to Most New York House Races - N.Y. Times

WASHINGTON — National Republican officials have decided to withhold financial support from all but two closely contested Congressional races in New York, as the party braces for the possibility that it could lose several more House seats in the state.

The decision to abandon much of the state came after internal party polls showed Republican candidates in at least three once-promising races falling behind their Democratic opponents, a party official briefed on the internal deliberations said. As a result, Republican leaders are diverting money to candidates in other races in which party officials believe they have a greater chance of success, the official said.

The decision by national Republicans to focus on a smaller group of races underscores the degree to which the party is on the defensive not only in New York but also in New Jersey, Connecticut and many other states. The national party is short on cash and is being forced into the difficult position of deciding where to continue to fight — and where to effectively surrender — as the election enters the final days of campaigning.
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Riz · Oct 31, 2008

riverplate - better than a LexisNexis search.

Riz · Nov 7, 2008

I am so proud of you, Murrlin mah Murrlin.

http://tinyurl.com/68ko72

The Hill said:

AP calls race for Maryland Democrat Kratovil
By Aaron Blake
Posted: 11/07/08 09:00 PM [ET]

The Associated Press has called Maryland’s 1st district congressional race for Democrat Frank Kratovil, handing the party a 20-seat gain from Tuesday’s elections with a few races still outstanding.

Kratovil, the Queen Anne’s County state’s attorney, led state Sen. Andy Harris (R) by 2,003 votes out of more than 340,000 cast.
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riverplate · Nov 9, 2008

Maryland and Washington Races Decided - N.Y. Times

ANNAPOLIS, Md. (AP) — A Democrat, Frank Kratovil, has won an open seat in the House for Maryland’s First Congressional District. Mr. Kratovil claimed a seat held for 18 years by Republicans, beating his opponent, Andy Harris, a Republican, by about 2,000 votes.

In Washington State, Representative Dave Reichert, a Republican and a former King County sheriff, beat back a challenge from Darcy Burner, a Democrat, for a second time. With 80 percent of the vote counted, Mr. Reichert leads by 8,000 votes. Ms. Burner conceded Friday night...

The victories give Democrats some 255 House seats, to 174 for the Republicans. Democrats have picked up 20 seats.

Four House races — in Alaska, California, Ohio and Virginia — are still too close to call. Two Congressional elections in Louisiana will not be held until Dec. 6.
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riverplate · Nov 16, 2008

You don't know how much I would love Waxman to take over this committee...

A Power Duo, Dingells Battle on Two Fronts - N.Y. Times

WASHINGTON — Things are a little tense in the Dingell household. John is fighting to protect his job from an ambitious younger colleague. Debbie is battling to save her company from bankruptcy. John is recovering from major knee surgery. Debbie’s mother has been seriously ill.

This is no ordinary family drama. Representative John D. Dingell of Michigan, the at-times-irascible Democratic chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, is trying to stave off a challenge to his chairmanship from Representative Henry A. Waxman, the anything-but-mellow California Democrat. Mr. Dingell’s wife, Deborah Insley Dingell, is a senior executive at General Motors and a member of the family who founded the company.

At a time when they thought they would be quietly nursing Mr. Dingell back to health, celebrating the Democratic victory on Nov. 4 and helping the ailing auto industry, the Dingells find themselves in a nasty intramural brawl with Mr. Waxman.

One Dingell ally called it King Kong versus Godzilla.
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riverplate · Nov 20, 2008

YES!!!

Longtime Head of House Energy Panel Is Ousted - N.Y. Times

WASHINGTON — Representative Henry A. Waxman of California ousted Representative John D. Dingell of Michigan from his post as chairman of the influential Committee on Energy and Commerce on Thursday, giving President-elect Barack Obama an advantage in his plans to promote efforts to combat global warming.

By a secret vote of 137 to 122, House Democrats ended Mr. Dingell’s nearly 28-year reign as his party’s top member on the committee. In doing so, Mr. Waxman’s backers upended the seniority system to install a leader more in tune with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on a variety of issues.

Although Ms. Pelosi did not formally endorse Mr. Waxman, members of the Democratic caucus understood that she could have stopped him if she had wished. The incoming Obama administration had also signaled its direction when it named Philip Schiliro, a longtime and loyal aide to Mr. Waxman, as the new White House director of Congressional relations.
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Riz · Nov 20, 2008

I have met Mr. Dingell - he's a nice old guy. I'm kinda sad about this one.

riverplate · Nov 23, 2008

Behind House Struggle, Long and Tangled Roots - N.Y. Times

WASHINGTON — With Representatives Henry A. Waxman and John D. Dingell locked in a fearsome struggle for the chairmanship of the powerful House Energy and Commerce Committee, Steny H. Hoyer, the No. 2 Democrat in the House, was trying to broker a truce. Two days after Mr. Waxman announced his challenge this month, Mr. Hoyer asked if he would be willing to wait two years, to allow Mr. Dingell, the longest-serving House Democrat, a graceful exit and to preserve the Congressional seniority system. Mr. Waxman said no.

Mr. Hoyer, of Maryland, then asked Mr. Dingell, of Michigan, if he would accept the deal: two years and out. Emphatically, no, Mr. Dingell said. If Mr. Waxman, of California, the darling of environmentalists and the liberal wing of the party, wanted the Energy and Commerce crown, he was going to have to take it by parliamentary force.

And that is precisely what he did on Thursday morning, by a vote of 137 to 122, with the decisive votes coming from the large California delegation and the newest members of the Democratic Caucus.
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fatbastard · Nov 24, 2008

I have a hard time listening to what Waxman is actually saying. When I look at him, I just see a giant rat. I'm not using hyperbole to describe a politician's bad habits or anything - I mean the guy just looks like an actual rat. It's uncanny.
I mean, he seems like a caring dude and all, but I'm shallow that way sometimes

Barbara · Nov 24, 2008

fatbastard said: ↑

I have a hard time listening to what Waxman is actually saying. When I look at him, I just see a giant rat. I'm not using hyperbole to describe a politician's bad habits or anything - I mean the guy just looks like an actual rat. It's uncanny.
I mean, he seems like a caring dude and all, but I'm shallow that way sometimes
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Yeah, he is a funny-looking little dude.

Zamphyr · Nov 24, 2008

I always picture him processing Winthorpe into jail.
That's PCP! Phenycyclidine. Angel dust! You ever seen what this stuff does to kids?

Muppet Government!

Zerbina · Nov 24, 2008

Zamphyr said: ↑

I always picture him processing Winthorpe into jail.
That's PCP! Phenycyclidine. Angel dust! You ever seen what this stuff does to kids?
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Oh, that's PERFECT!

riverplate · Nov 29, 2008

New Battle Brews on Capitol Hill: Dems vs. Dems - CNN

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Congressional Democrats have a bigger majority than they've enjoyed in decades, but that doesn't necessarily mean there will be unity on Capitol Hill. A new battle may be brewing as Democrats fighting Democrats show evidence of a party divide. The growing Democratic majority could be in deadlock from within on issues ranging from climate change and energy to health care and social security.

"We're not just talking ideology here. The broader your majority, the more you've got different regions of the country that have different economic and social interests that you have to take into account," said Norman Ornstein, a scholar with the American Enterprise Institute...

There are also ideological divisions on how to pay for things, and that's where the more moderate Blue Dogs Democrats, who have increased their numbers, will assert their power. They are focused on reigning in spending and they've already met with Obama's transition team to push that.
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argentine soccer fan · Nov 30, 2008

riverplate said: ↑

New Battle Brews on Capitol Hill: Dems vs. Dems - CNN
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There are also ideological divisions on how to pay for things, and that's where the more moderate Blue Dogs Democrats, who have increased their numbers, will assert their power. They are focused on reigning in spending and they've already met with Obama's transition team to push that.
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Go Blue Dogs!!!

fatbastard · Dec 1, 2008

but that's one of the things I love about democrats, that's why I am one - we don't all agree on one list of specific talking points - we have basic values, but different ways to go about achieving them.
It's what the republicans have been making fun of us for for 20 years and said it would stop us from ever being in power again because we couldn't focus on one set of things to run on against them.
I hope we never become narrowly focused like the last 15 years of republicans.
You Go New Democrats, embrace your individuality - and that of your different constituents

superdave · Dec 1, 2008

argentine soccer fan said: ↑

Go Blue Dogs!!!
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You need to hold off on that cheer. Neo-Hooverism is a recipe for disaster. Maybe in 2 years there will be a good, legitimate debate, but not right now.

Zerbina · Dec 1, 2008

http://www.twincities.com/ci_11113136?IADID=Search-www.twincities.com-www.twincities.com

State demographer Tom Gillaspy says Minnesota is "right on the cusp" of losing a congressional seat after the 2010 census.

Gillaspy says sun belt states including Texas and Arizona will gain seats.
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Oooo, swell. Any chance DeLay is gonna run again?

superdave · Dec 2, 2008

Depends on the parole board.

Knave · Dec 3, 2008

I knew it was over weeks ago, but now it's official. Yet again, my representative in Congress is a complete tool.

Democrat Charlie Brown conceded defeat Wednesday in Northern California's 4th Congressional District race, 29 days after Election Day and two days after opponent Tom McClintock declared victory.

http://www.sacbee.com/capitolandcalifornia/story/1446745.html
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Revolt · Dec 4, 2008

For no particular reason other than its funny: