Hey guys, we've got some down time until the next match so I thought it would be nice if we maybe took a snap assessment of our stretch run and the same for our chief competitors in the Eastern Conference. I'll pull out schedules and offer some thoughts by the weekend. Maybe others want to pitch in? If so I suggest you pick one team and give us your layman's analysis of their remaining games. Gives us all something to do and an idea of how things might shape out.
Here's an AJC article with Roberson discussing how Atlanta still essentially (but not completely) controls its own destiny in the East. "One of Atlanta United’s six remaining games is at NYCFC on Sept. 25. If Atlanta United is victorious in that game as part of finishing with six consecutive wins it will finish the regular season with 66 points. All it would need is for NYCFC to not win one of its other six games and, if that happens, Atlanta United will finish with more points, 66-65. If NYCFC draws one of its remaining six the two teams will finish with the same total of 66 points. The first tie-breaker is number of wins. Atlanta United would have 21 to NYCFC’s 19 in that scenario. If NYCFC loses to Atlanta United but wins its other six games it will finish with more points than Atlanta United, 68-66. ... Here’s the kicker: Philadelphia will host NYCFC in final game of the regular season on Oct. 6." So here's Atlanta's remaining schedule: Sat 9/14 v Columbus Wed 9/18 @ FC Cincy Sat 9/21 v San Jose Wed 9/25 @ NYCFC Sun 9/29 @ MON Sun 10/6 v NER The Columbus match will have no excuses. Columbus has this weekend off, same as Atlanta, and they've gone 5(w)-2(d)-1(l) in their last 8 matches. However, the Crew are next to last in the conference, will have nothing to play for, and Atlanta should be primed to close out their remaining home games for maximum points on that front. Plus Atlanta should be jacked to play against the Crew in something other than a deluge. @ Cincy should technically easier, as they've been the epitome of the classic expansion franchise: Currently with the worst record across the league, they've already changed coaches twice and have shipped in 39 more goals than they've scored. Even when hosting their rivals, the Crew, a couple matches back, arguably the team's best opportunity to end the season on a high note, FCC came out flat and just could not defend. Cincy will also have traveled to Montreal the weekend before this match so they won't have any rest advantage. Atlanta will arguably rotate the roster some for this match but they'll still be eyeing this with the intent of 3 pts. The San Jose match will be the first tricky one of the slate. The Quakes won't have had a midweek match before coming to Atlanta but that weekend before they'll have traveled to NYC. They currently sit 4th in a tight Western Conference playoff race and have been a much better, more aggressive, and more attractive side this season under first year coach Matias Almeyda, however some enigmatic form saw them drop 3 straight and their coach is serving a suspension for some unbecoming displays during/after a match. Most importantly, though, not only will San Jose be fighting for post-season position their preferred attacking style should make their match-up with Atlanta a furious game that will test a possibly weary Stripes' side and on paper appears a real shoot-out. San Jose has a better goals-per-game ration than Atlanta, but they've also conceded much more and don't do as well on the road. If Atlanta can claim these three points they'll be duly earned against a likely playoff team. Will do the last three matches next time.
We dug ourselves into a hole early. The Philly loss in isolation can be set aside, but we're now in a position where we may end up needing to win a one/done on the road more than once to avoid disaster and repeat as champs. My hopes of winning out an all-home playoff schedule and then beating someone other than LAFC in the title game in our place (I don't think LAFC is for real, and I see them losing before the Final) are fading. Nobody in MLS has been great on the road except LAFC (@ 1.92 ppg, they're doing better on the road than anybody else is doing overall) right now. I'm not sure we can do better at this point than 2nd in the East, and we may well be looking at third and a game vs. DC or RB, which isn't appealing (NE has a game in hand v. RB and two v. DC). Ugh. This business of hoping for someone else to upset a team or two so we don't have to risk playing them is not cool, but it's where we are in a league where being the best and being the champion are not synonymous.
Assuming Atlanta holds serve on their next 3 matches, game 4 will be the biggie - @ Yankee Stadium vs CFG:New York. New York is currently in the driver's seat for first in the east, a feat derived from an offense that on the whole rates as the most productive in the Eastern Conference at just under 1.9 goals per match. (Atlanta? 1.68) Plus defensively they're rated about as strong as Atlanta, and at home they're conceding less than a goal per match. Coach Dome Torrent has rallied the side now that he's been with them for a full season, and their play has been comprehensive if not always sexy. From Atlanta's perspective NYC's most effective weapon has been the struggles in minimizing the effects of Maxi Moralez and Alex Ring in the midfield. NYC will tend to push them both forward and look to overwhelm a single central defensive midfielder, playing up through the middle more aggressively than many teams. Some times this is anchored on a pressing style, but that depends on their tactics and opponent. Versus Atlanta they tend to begin their press around the midfield line, hoping to lure the Stripes' defenders out and vulnerable to counter attacks. This approach has become more potent as the season wears on thanks to the addition of Brazilian Heber as striker. He and Valentin Castellanos don't always move fluidly as a pair in attack but they're also both deadly enough that opposing defenses can't focus on just one. They also work well as a decoy so players like Moralez and Alexandru Mitrita can make darting runs. As a result NYC has 4 players with at least 7 goals plus players like Tajouri-Shradi that can come off the bench and score timely goals, as well. NYC lost in Atlanta in early August, 2-1. Since then they've gone 5-0-0. Granted, 3 of those matches were against Cincy, Columbus, and Vancouver, but that's still max points at a critical time. Now the question is can they keep that momentum during a home stretch where they've more games than their playoff rivals and play 3 of their last 4 on the road. Coming into the midweek Atlanta match both teams will play the weekend before, but Atlanta will be playing at home vs. San Jose that Saturday while NYC will be playing at Dallas on Sunday. This means the Citehzens will effectively only have 1 day to practice ahead of the match. They'll also know that they have to turn around and play at NER and at PHI to close out the season, so they should be feeling the pressure. It will also be NYC's last regular season home game, which could both fire up the crowd or find them feeling the pressure of the playoff stretch. From that standpoint it might be better for Atlanta to catch them on a weeknight, as that might mute the home-field advantage a tad. Atlanta's previous trips to Yankee Stadium? A 3-1 loss in 2017, a taut 1-1 draw in the 2018 regular season match in a game where NYC was clearly the better side, and then Atlanta's surprising 0-1 win to start their playoff run that fall.
NYCFC find themselves with a little schedule compression going into the stretch. It will be interesting to see how they deal with the problems that plagued us at the beginning of the season. NTCFC is the team to beat IMHO.
Agreed, and they play in the only match that matters to the Stripes today. NYC vs NER, 3:30 Coincidentally, Sean Johnson has been released early from USMNT duty in time to play for NYC today. Meanwhile Guzan and Miles are expected to see more time on the field for the US on Tuesday.
A s*** ref and a s*** game sees NER get and early lead, get reduced to 10 in the 1st half, then give up the game winning PK (stupidly) in extra time. CFG:NY gets all 3 points regrettably.
Sean can get out of this, but Guuuuz can't (Miles is young, can't hate on him for wanting the callup)? This is what I feared. The Philly game wasn't a confidence game for us (I do think it was for them), but it absolutely was a standings game- we really, REALLY needed to split the points, specifically v. that team. Honestly, last season in Yankee Stadium we got a draw that felt like a win (which you mentioned) and then a one goal win in the playoffs that IMO felt a bit fortunate as well. A must-win game on that little-ass pitch is something we've never had to do before. Times like this are when I look back at the first game v. Cincy and the two v. Red Bulls The plus: We can't fall below third unless we just collapse. And we're still a long way off from Decision Day. The bad: If we blink at all, we're probably going to get only one home playoff game. If the seeds hold serve, we may be in real trouble. The Bad Plus: lol Not a great tune, but this is AUFC's "Coming back from the edge of doom to defend the championship" soundtrack
Yeah, for me it's the home match vs RBNY and the road loss @ RSL. That's 3 pts surrendered on essentially 2 last kicks of the game. Rarely can you get away with that in the standings. I still don't see CFG:NY winning out. That closing stretch is just brutal. Question is what Atlanta makes of their chances.
We've shown this season that we can win on the road, but home field advantage in MLS is a real thing. We would much rather play at MBS for the key games.
Well, this was a quick turnaround in our fortunes. We're still (or back) in the hunt for fewer road matches. I just wish we'd been just a bit sharper in those games we didn't get full points or didn't get any. This is going to end up being a dogfight- great for neutral fans, not so great for those of us with a dog in the fight. I know I'll feel better about this postseason if we're on top of the East. I just have to be a bit on edge until that happens.
Still a glimmer of hope for the East... Micropitch FC goes to Dallas and Philly goes to RB. This can still happen. I'm just trying to will us out of an elimination game at Yankee Stadium best way I know how, short of killing a chicken and drinking its blood or something
Three points in NYC is gonna be tough enough as it is... doing it without Josef will be even tougher, if it comes to that. .
It's tough for me to gauge just how much trouble we're in because last night's circumstances were so unusual, but we are in trouble. The Bad: It ain't just Yankee Stadium. We've lost three of the last five, and we haven't gotten a truly impressive win since Portland. Our defending looks like old legs and youthful ineptitude instead of young legs and veteran decisionmaking. Josef is not with us atm. We're adrift just when we need to be peaking, healthy and focused on the championship tournament. I'd much rather we had those losses back in the early-to-mid season when it could still be argued that the team was figuring out a new system. My biggest concern is that we've become who we're going to be in the future, and it's not "clear favorites" anymore. I just don't want us to become the 90s-00s Braves. That's what 2017 felt like after losing to the Crew at home The Plus: Josef is healing (DSS' Joe Patrick has video of him on a treadmill, but his weight is supported by some apparatus on the machine) , Barco may be back by the weekend, and we can still compete for the league championship.
With the playoffs secured and first place out of reach... my XI for the next two games Vs Montreal ——-Villalba--Vasquez—— ——Carleton—Emo———- Bello———Red———Escobar —Pogba—Parky—Miles—— —————Guzan————— Subs: Adams, Pereira, Luiz Fernando Vs New England ——Villalba——Pity———— ——-Carleton—Nagbe——- Bello———Red———Gressel —-LGP—-Miles—Parky——- ————-Guzan—————— Subs: Adams, Pereira, Ambrose
For at least one of those games, I'd give all the youngsters a run-out. Play the 2s and get them some minutes. They might surprise you. I'd probably keep Pity, Guzan, and Nagbe on the bench as much as possible. Barco needs minutes when he gets healthy, as does Villalba.
I'm gonna go against you guys on this one. 2nd in the East is very much in play and would likely prove invaluable not only for hosting a 2nd round match but also in who Atlanta might face in the 1st round. Plus I still believe this team at its best can beat anyone in the league (especially with LAFC now looking mortal), so I want the team to retain a champion's mentality and go into the postseason with a sense of belief and hunger. That being the case I know some squad rotation may be needed this weekend but I'm wanting a best XI against NER. We need to get the team back in form and that means gunning for a top performance to close out the season and heading into the playoffs. If we're serious about making Hyndman work, if we're serious in trying to figure out Plan B (and not C or F) without Josef then we need to work some of that out before round 1. Says I, anyway.
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<walks down the hall, steps into an empty room, looks around, thinks about it for a second, thinks again, decides to just go for it and whispers against all concerns about jinxing> Go, Braves.
So, the weekend results didn't turn in Atlanta's favor. In letting CFG off the hook Wednesday it appears we may have boosted the Pigeon's morale, given their 5-goal outing on Saturday. So for now Atlanta sits in the last playoff spot, tied in points with RNNY, but those two teams both have a game in hand on everyone else. If the Stripes can't win their other three matches, then the trip to Harrison, NJ will be HUGE. So it's the proverbial "one match at a time" time. Close out the home slate with wins over Miami and Toronto and the worry about RB.
I'm not worried quite yet. Mainly because I'm not too enthused about the 4 and 5 spots to begin with. That game just leads to Foxboro. I'd like to see us get two matches before we see the Revs, and it would also give another club a shot at upsetting them so we don't have to. That means 3, 6 or 7. 3's probably out of reach. I'm not afraid to go to Nashville. We have as many wins as they do, with the points diffy coming from draws. In a game that must end with a winner, I see no reason why we can't pull the upset there. I would f'ing love to go to Orlando as a 6 to their 3. If they beat us, they're supposed to, based on the seeding. But if we win, it's yet another bit of crow the Orlandoids and Orlandites have to digest. Philly concerns me almost as much as New England. Basically, there isn't a way to a league title for us unless a lot of stuff happens in other games, or unless our form just suddenly goes thru the roof. It's interesting, having for the first time to hope for this team to beat that team to give us the best chances. An unfamiliar position for United fans, but here we are.