I remember talking with a Kon-Tiki Museum (Oslo) researcher when I lived in Laramie, Wyoming. He was appalled at how cold Laramie was in the winter. Laramie is 41 degrees north latitude (but high altitude), Oslo is 60 degrees north (almost the same as Anchorage, Alaska).
I guess the big question is, post-Gulf Stream, what direction would the currents travel along the west coast of Europe? Because they travel in a northerly direction along the Washington and BC (Canada) coast towards Anchorage and the weather is perfectly fine in those places, even in mid-winter. Perfectly fine by Oslo standards anyway.
I think the point is the Gulf Stream wouldn't reach the west coast of Europe. In other words, there is no movement of warm water/air into northern Europe. Also, the currents in the Pacific are opposite to what you describe. The current travels from Alaska to BC and Washington - that's why you really don't want to go swimming in the Washington ocean. Our temps are moderated because the winds typically come from the southwest - east of the Cascade mountains is a very different climate.
hmm.. looks like Washington is at the split. All of BC and Alaska though has a current coming from the south unless the below is wrong (though multiple other sources show the same).
I live at the southern tip of Puget Sound. In other words, I live where the ice ended at the last Ice Age. The subpolar gyre is not warm water. (I believe our water on the Washington coast comes from the north - I think the subpolar gyre is further offshore). Either way, our water is frigid - you don't want to go swimming here, whereas the water in Galway is more tolerable.
That is accurate. If you live in Puget Sound and want to swim in warm water you take a boat 20 miles offshore. Well that's what the interwebs told me but looking at a map of coastal sea temperatures it's more like 100 miles.
Okay so I took the time to read the article itself. I'm just gonna highlight a few things here for everyone to read through, and then give my thoughts. Article link here. So what's happening in this model is they (a) do not account for the 1.3 degrees of warming globally that has already occurred and the future 1-1.5 degrees of warming that will occur globally, but model freshwater release from ice caps to trigger the AMOC collapse. The map shows that summertime European temperatures will be approximately 2-5 C below where they are now. Wintertime European temperatures will eventually resemble North America, after a prolonged period of decline (1 C per decade). Summertime sea ice will reach 50 N -- by comparison, where I live in Britain is above that, so we'll be surrounded by ice! This tipping point for AMOC occurs in 2075-2100, which will cause the aforementioned collapse in temperatures at Northern latitudes. However. My two caveats: 1) If global warming exceeds 2C, the model they use will be somewhat mitigated by the albedo-caused ice expansion. Basically, white reflects light, and more ice will beget more ice, causing the rapid expansion of wintertime ice lower temperatures. But if warming reduces that process, we will get less ice and 0.8C decline per decade instead of 1C decline, moderating temperatures. So rather than sea ice at 50 N, it could be higher. Iceland's ********ed, but you can still go eat pastries in Copenhagen. 2) The paper alludes to, but does not model, the abrupt climate fluctuations known as Dansgaard-Oeschger events. These events show massive rises and falls in ice mass, which have been interpreted to mean temperature changes as well in the North Atlantic and surrounding regions. There may be an "ice age" for a few hundred years in Scandinavia, but we should not expect the ice to last for thousands of years. Instead, we get chaos. The model underscores the need to get warming under control quickly, but it does not occur in our lifetimes (so Sounders, you can buy that house) and is not likely to be nearly as scary as the substantially-less-predictable centuries that follow 2200, when the ice retreats and temperatures and sea levels rise.
If you want to not slash your wrists and get constructive, I'd recommend Dr Hannah Ritchie. You can hear her ideas on this excellent interview, or buy her new book. Yes the situation is bad, but as Brummie says, the Doomerism is not useful. Her new book, Not the End of the World, seems good, though i've not read more than the preview yet. https://www.cleaningup.live/not-the-end-of-the-world-ep147-dr-hannah-ritchie/
https://www.npr.org/2024/02/15/1231690415/plastic-recycling-waste-oil-fossil-fuels-climate-change Here's one of the many exciting plastic recycling opportunities the FF industry is developing for us: https://www.propublica.org/article/chevron-epa-plastic-biofuel-cancer-risk
Warmest February (so far) in 150 years here in Chicago. Daffodils are starting to poke through the ground already. This is normal.
there were palm trees in London almost 40 years ago... Stanley Kubrick had them planted for filming Full Metal Jacket. Fortunately (for the planet) they are no longer there. I mean... not like they're bad for the planet, but if palm trees are thriving in London, other places well be in all kinds of bad shape.
San Francisco based author and activist Rebecca Solnit has been arguing along these lines for quite awhile This has about a dozen essays that are all quite good, and from a variety of perspectives
Beckton. I lived there for a while after they finished demolishing the warehouses and put up cheap, thinly walled, drafty apartment buildings. Horrible place.
This is an interesting development, although it looks like it's had several false starts... Gloucestershire vertical farm is one of UK's 'most advanced' The growing space covers 15 layers from the floor to the ceiling One of the UK's "most technically advanced" indoor farms has opened in Gloucestershire. The so-called vertical farm can grow salad three times as fast as traditional outdoor agriculture thanks to its controlled, consistent climate. Lettuce, basil and other herbs are grown under special lights, in a warm humid atmosphere. "It's turned farming into a high-tech factory," said head grower, Glyn Stephens.
Does this mean we Dutch can look forward to getting at least one "Elfstedentocht" every 5 years? edit: instead of "wishing and hoping" for decades?
Possibly. And the people who gamble on London getting snow on Christmas Day every year might finally win.
we may have half an inch overnight. Wind chills in the single digits, and of course I have to go into the office. Ugh.
lol. I was speaking with a neighbor on Sunday who was asking about me living here. I told him I moved in September. Him: I haven't seen you. Me: Probably because I work from home.
I’d say half of my block works from home, other half at the office. I shouldn’t complain too much. 5 minute walk to the train, then about 10 minutes to the office on the other side and I can do most of it within the bowels of the train station so not exposed to the elements too much. edit: tornadoes to the north, we are just getting rain. Wife wanted kids in basement so they aren’t in bed and I’m grumpy because I can’t go play Assassin’s Creed Odyssey.