The Freddy Adu Timetable -- or the parallel universe of DMB

Discussion in 'USA Men: News & Analysis' started by Karl K, May 20, 2004.

  1. Karl K

    Karl K Member

    Oct 25, 1999
    Suburban Chicago
    With all this hyperventilating over the potential of EPL reserve players, I thought it might be interesting to focus on a former US youth international who is actually PLAYING first division professional soccer -- that Nike multi-millionaire, Freddy Adu.

    I have always thought that the careers of DaMarcus Beasley and Freddy Adu could evolve in similar ways. So, I went through a bit of an historical and hypothetical/predictive exercise...and guess what?

    These two live in parallel dimensions, separated only by time. Or, from another perspective, history has a chance -- a pretty good chance it seems to me -- of repeating itself.

    Now, don't get me wrong. I am not saying it WILL happen. All I am saying is that it is hardly far-fetched to imagine that it CAN happen, and that if it DOES happen, none of us, not a single one of us, should be surprised the least little bit.

    Right now, I would put the odds somewhere between 20% to 30% that Freddy's timetable will play out as I list it below. As this season and next season progress, those odds could change.

    But if they went up, don't be shocked.

    **********************************************************

    Timetable for DaMarcus Beasley

    1999 —Signs with MLS; trains part time with Galaxy but plays no games; mostly at Bradenton and plays over summer at FIFA U17 Championships

    2000 – In MLS full time by summer; 18 games for Fire, 11 starting

    2001 – Continues with Fire; 24 games played, 24 started; gets first national team cap; gets called up to play in one qualifier, at T&T, after qualification is assured

    2002 —On Gold Cup roster; 8 games with Fire, 8 started, until WC; on WC final 23-man roster, after having played in 50 MLS regular season games, plus assorted Open Cup, playoff, and friendly games.

    **********************************************************

    Timetable for Freddy (part actual, part hypothetical)

    2003 – Signs with MLS; trains some of the time with DC United; plays no MLS games; rather stays at Bradenton and plays over summer at FIFA U17 Championships.

    2004 – In MLS full time at start of season; should play in 20 games, start half or more.

    2005 – Continues with DC United, 25 games played, 20 or more started; gets first callup to national team for preparatory friendly in first half of the year. Gets called up to play in qualifier, after qualification is assured.

    2006 – On Gold Cup Roster; 8 games with DC United until WC; on final 23-man WC ’06 roster after 50+ MLS regular season games, plus assorted Open Cup, playoff, and friendly games.
     
  2. LittleMaradona

    Feb 25, 2001
    DMB - run fast, play good D, score no goal

    Adu - score goal (America need score goal)
     
  3. Stogey23

    Stogey23 Member+

    Dec 12, 1998
    San Diego, CA
    GOOD post Karl, I think YOU might be ON to something. Their FUTURES might BE close, as TIME goes on.

    Once AGAIN, good post.
     
  4. Nutmeg

    Nutmeg Member+

    Aug 24, 1999
    :D
     
  5. Karl K

    Karl K Member

    Oct 25, 1999
    Suburban Chicago
    So much for the brave new world of the ignore list.

    You abandoned it way...excuse me, ahem.... WAY faster than I thought.
     
  6. appoo

    appoo Member+

    Jul 30, 2001
    USA
    do you kids mind?

    any way Karl, Freddy played in the U17 WC before signing with MLS. I think you might be thinking of the U20 World Cup, in which he played in immediatly after signing with MLS.

    Freddy has to make a massive mental leap. And who knows when thats going to happen
     
  7. russ

    russ Member+

    Feb 26, 1999
    Canton,NY
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Well, so did Beasley,didn't he.And I remember Bobby Convey looking scared sh@tless for a whole season...
     
  8. tytomkiel

    tytomkiel Red Card

    Feb 12, 2002
    San Diego, Ca

    Hey Keller even though I dont like you (In terms of bigsoccer.com) good thread......
    Although 2 different players Adu may progress the way Bease has.
     
  9. lmorin

    lmorin Member+

    Mar 29, 2000
    New Hampshire
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    According to a recent large study of juvenile offenders and non-offenders, there is a real and substantial change in mentality that occurs around the age 16. Kid mode of thinking and behavior rather abruptly becomes much more adultish at that breakpoint. I suspect it is a particularly pointed characteristic of what we call "maturity" and applies to a lot of endeavors, including soccer. In this vein, I fully expect a different Freddy to appear in about 2 yrs, that is, of course, if he really is only 14 ;)
     
  10. Ringo

    Ringo Member

    Jun 10, 2002
    Rough and Ready
    Club:
    Yeovil Town FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    maybe he'll get over that someday. :D
     
  11. Karl K

    Karl K Member

    Oct 25, 1999
    Suburban Chicago
    Thanks....wait, I mean, THANKS!!
     
  12. mschofield

    mschofield Member+

    May 16, 2000
    Berlin
    Club:
    Union Berlin
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    Nice food for thought, but the history of players who've made a difference at 16 in a WC is pretty small, whereas there are a lot of 19-20 year olds (such as dmb) who've made a splash.
     
  13. jri

    jri Red Card

    Sep 28, 2000
    boca
    Is there anything about Freddy's career, so far, that DOESN'T lead you to believe he is in a pretty small group?

    In retrospect, years from now, I think the MLS debut will be the most difficult (in terms of Freddy dealing w/hoopla, all things considered including age) that the kid will ever face.....Soccer won't ever get to the stage in this country (in next 20 years) that Freddy will be Michael Jordan, and I think the intrigued foreign press will/would mostly be a laugh-off for Fred at the next World Cup.

    "Expectations? What Expectations? I'm just glad to be here" he'll answer (believing it) and rightly so... Bruce will use him as late game sub in a game or 2, and there won't be pressure, since anything he'll do will be a bonus...
     
  14. jri

    jri Red Card

    Sep 28, 2000
    boca
    BTW- Its simply hilarious to hear how several believe Freddy is inadaquate/not ready in some ways to play MLS....clearly, they have forgotten/have no knowledge the debuts of Messrs. Convey and Beasley (that entire first year, Beasley looked like he could killed at any moment....I kid you not)
     
  15. CarlosE

    CarlosE Member

    Dec 13, 2000
    Calvert County, MD
    Yeah. Like, zero.
     
  16. Karl K

    Karl K Member

    Oct 25, 1999
    Suburban Chicago
    Assuming, of couse, he really IS his age.

    Also, assuming that his age is his real age, he just turned 15 this May (he's an '89). so he will actually turn 17 just before the world cup. There is one guy who made a BIG splash at 17, and Freddy's doing commercials with him.

    Well, there can always be exceptions...even if it's just ONE exception, that has yet to happen, that proves the rule.
     
  17. lmorin

    lmorin Member+

    Mar 29, 2000
    New Hampshire
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Also, Ronaldo's stint on the Brazil bench as a 17 yr old seemed to be ok for his future performance.
     
  18. CarlosE

    CarlosE Member

    Dec 13, 2000
    Calvert County, MD
    I realize that Freddy could be one who breaks the mold.

    I was simply sarcastically pointing out that the "history of players who have had an impact on the WC at 16" is zero because there has never been a 16 year old player in the WC!
     
  19. Karl K

    Karl K Member

    Oct 25, 1999
    Suburban Chicago
    As I pointed out, the odds are long -- 1 in 5 may even be too generous that Freddy even MAKES the squad.

    But I think the next 18-20 months will be very interesting.

    It is really in Freddy's hands, or feet. Having seen him up close, his talent is undeniable. And he is already built like a man, and he is very intelligent.

    So, the stars may align a lot quicker that historical norms, which, as you point out, seem stacked against him.

    Meanwhile, I can see him scoring 8 to 10 goals this season in the run of play, which would put him among the top scorers in MLS. I can see some of them being absolute mind blowers.

    In other words, by sheet dint of his talent, I can see him willing his way onto the squad.

    I can also see him struggling and frustrated.

    I may start ANOTHER thread on the odds of Freddy making the squad -- I wish we could do a poll where you can change your vote as circumstances dictate.
     
  20. Rob Base

    Rob Base Member

    Apr 30, 2003
    'Burque, NM
    I would hope that our squad is strong enough that a 16 year old couldn't make the team, but I realize that we are not talking about a normal 16 year old (in 2006). Also, we haven't in the past had a surplus of lethal goal-scorers and dribbling wizards, so who knows?

    Would the inclusion of a kid that age be a desperation move/novelty, though? That said, a Brazilian 17 yr old from days past who shall remain nameless did more than contribute.
     
  21. Karl K

    Karl K Member

    Oct 25, 1999
    Suburban Chicago
    Or, from another perspective, the fact that we CAN have a 16-17 yr old make the team, and hopefully contribute, speaks volume about the long term prospects of our national team program.

    As for including him as a novelty, I will say this. Bruce Arena only cares about winning, and assembling the best 23 man roster he can to go deep into the tournament. If Freddy's on the squad, he will have performed in a way that merits inclusion on his qualities as a soccer player -- and we will all know it -- not as a marketing ploy.
     
  22. appoo

    appoo Member+

    Jul 30, 2001
    USA
    Owen played and STARRED in a World Cup at 17 didn't he?
     
  23. Guido

    Guido New Member

    Apr 7, 2004
    New Orleans, LA
    I certainly hope that when he is DB's age, Adu
    will be leaps and bounds ahead. If he is no better
    than DB than all this hoopla will be a waste.

    DB is good, but Adu is supposed to be great.

    -Guido
     
  24. jri

    jri Red Card

    Sep 28, 2000
    boca
    Here's another timeline for you to consider Karl- I think its relevant.


    http://soccernet.espn.go.com/player?id=21046&cc=5901

    I'd estimate that Freddy is a full 1-1 1/2 years ahead of Rooney's development, which is HUGE and REMARKABLE at this age. Technically, its closer to 2 years, but I think one has to discount the material difference in league quality. (which I am at 1/2-1 year).

    Freddy's 2004 season looks to be a carbon copy of Rooney 1st season in some/many ways. Rooney made his England debut during his 1st season! Rooney's "I've arrived goal- spectacular" happened in the last month before his 17th birthday in 2002- Freddy's in the last month before his 15th birthday.

    Looking at this, it is not at all unreasonable to think Freddy could have a place at the 2006 table...
     
  25. jri

    jri Red Card

    Sep 28, 2000
    boca
    I think 1 in 5 odds are too low.

    Also, it is interesting to consider: How would (the potential of Freddy playing in a match) effect World Cup ratings? Could we see a similar bump to what we've seen in MLS ratings (78% increase). How much money would it mean to SUM if World Cup ratings are 78% higher for the US World Cup games? How would that impact soccer in the States. I'm not naive enough to think this is totally irrelevant, given the owners of SUM are the owners of MLS. The whole Pele connection thing (including looks) is almost eerie, but is a marketer's dream (if soccer in US can ever be considered that). You are going to have major sponsers lining up to get a piece of the Pele/Freddy connection, and American's love a big-time event w/a good story behind it.

    But I do think the point will be moot, Freddy will earn it on the merits. I think Freddy will show enough to be the late-game scoring/PK-drawing joker which is a valuable asset in the low-scoring WC competition. He's got 2 seasons to learn to make runs off the ball, runs to passing lanes (I'd be amazed if he can't learn in that time- he's a smart kid), but I have little worry that he will be as dangerous as any US player we have in the final 1/3 by then (or close)...If Rooney can be England-ready in 2 years, Freddy certainly can too...

    Finally, I also think we will see massive development of Freddy even in the off-season- maturity (physical), a commitment to shoring up his weaknesses (let's face it- this season is a blur for the kid.....I only expect incremental improvement in the "intangibles"), and his re-dedication coming into next year's training. He will be a force in 2005, and I think you will see the WC placement in sight.

    Freddy's a rulebreaker...it'll only continue (and to think, Jordan got CUT from his high school BB team at this age)

    At this point, if I had the software, I'd put Freddy pic next to Pele and morph the faces (wouldn't look that odd- they have facial simularity).. :)
     

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