*Which isn't to say I think Vargas is a bust or can't/won't hack it in MLS. He's young, it's his first time playing outside the country, and we all heard and saw a lot of very positive stuff in preseason. Maybe he just needs time. Likely going to be the same situation with Schoen. If I spelled it "Agent_Oranje" the reference would perhaps be a bit clearer.
Here's a local TV station's take on the Kamungo story, including some interview material. https://ktxs.com/sports/high-school-sports/ahs-senior-goes-from-refugee-camp-to-pro-soccer-team
Worth noting that Vargas is just there on loan. If they don't like they way he performs, they can cut him loose. There are those who believed that Ferreira would actually start the season as the left winger. Buzz had predicted that before his injury. There are also those who believe that Pomykal could see a lot of time there. Plus they then went out and signed the Hungarian left winger. What I'm trying to say is I'm not convinced Vargas was brought in to be a lock starter on the left wing. He had a good pre-season, and with the other issues/injuries, and has gotten the nod at first.
Just for the sake of conversation (and because I'm bored this evening), here's my ceiling rankings for everyone US-eligible born '99-'06 in the FCD organization. NOT prospect rankings, which I'd associate with 50th percentile outcomes. More about judging where a 95th percentile version of these guys could play. I only include guys that I think have pro ceilings. The line to become a HG candidate is somewhere around 4 or 5. Don't take the flavor text too literally - it's more about tiering. 10 (star player on a UCL contender - think Top 25 players worldwide): Pepi, Corcoran (recently moved up) 9 (USMNT star, starter for a UCL contender - think Pulisic/Adams/Mckennie's level today, or thereabouts): Sealy, Che (recently moved up) 8 (USMNT lock, star for a UCL group stage side): Pomykal, A Ramirez, Eyestone 7 (USMNT starter, well-regarded starter for a solid Big 5 side - think John Brooks or so): Tessmann, D Hernandez, Salazar, J Jones, Brandon, A Carrera 6 (MLS Best XI, USMNT rostered - think Jordan Morris, Gyasi Zardes): Roberts, Anguiano, Canizalez, Molina, Urzua, Ca Sanchez, Ferreira 5 (MLS All Star, USMNT roster fringe - think Chris Mueller, Roldan): Servania, Cerrillo (tho I enjoy Cerrillo more than almost anyone on this list), Smith, Redzic, D Rodriguez, Ch Sanchez, Kr Kelley, Elizalde, T Reynolds, Pickering 4 (MLS lock starter): ElMedkhar, Rayo, K Bonilla, T Scott, DuBroff, Ramsey, Garcia, Norris, Vargas-Valerio 3 (MLS starter): Almaguer, Collodi, Easton, Escribano, Grimm, Aguilar, Bazzell, O'Donnell, Van Hees, Akem
I like the idea. With a little more pessimism here’s my take 10 (UCL Star): No one yet 9 (UCL starter/USMNT lock): Chris Richards, Paxton Pomykal (if healthy), Matthew Corcoran (still optimistic, praying for good health) 8 (big 5 starter/usmnt contender): Bryan Reynolds, Justin Che, Ricardo Pepi, Dante Sealy, Tanner Tessmann, Matthew Corcoran (pessimist expectation) 7 (big 5 role player/MLS star): Reggie Cannon, Antonio Carrera 6 (MLS starter): Diego Hernandez, Anthony Ramirez, Henry Canizalez, Brandan Servania, Jesus Ferreira 5 (MLS role player): Jordan Jones, Jared Salazar, Malachi Molina, Edwin Cerillo, Beni Rezdic, Collin Smith 4 (debatably even MLS level): Thomas Roberts 3 (not quite ready to place): Julian Eyestone, Adrian Anguiano (big injury), Carlos Sanchez, Nighte Pickering, Gabrial Brandon 2 (probably shouldn’t sign): any unmentioned 03 and younger academy kids 1 (guys not in FC Dallas anymore)
You definitely err on the side of being wildly optimistic. I personally would dial every single guy on this list down at least one ranking in terms of ceiling.
It is a ceiling at a 95th percentile. Which is to say, in the top 5% best possible outcomes. He listed 50 guys, so what he's saying is that only 2-3 of the people on that list are likely to reach that ceiling. Obviously, there's no exact way to measure all that, but if you look at the list, doesn't that make sense? Only 5% of the guys reach that. Whereas on David Kerr's more pessimistic list ... that's not a 95th percentile. The top part of the list reads like a 30th-50th percentile (which is also fine), but some of that stuff has already come true! Either way, as OP commented, it's more about the relative ranking.
Maybe I see the error bars around the peaks of most young players as wider than others? In general, it's probably smarter to err on the side of underconfidence than overconfidence. For example, in Pepi’s case, if I gave you a list of every ‘03 and told you to choose as many players as you want until you had a group that would include every ‘03 that would ever be considered a top 25 player worldwide at any point in their careers with 95% confidence, you’d be surprised how many players you’d need to reach that level of confidence. This is effectively what the NFL Draft is, yet some All-Pro player comes from the 3rd or later round every few years. I do think I'm higher on Pepi than most, but I don't think it's unreasonable to say that if you simulated his career for the next 15 years 10,000 times, 4-5% of the time he has a season or two or more where he's the leading striker for a top club. He continues to be a per96 stat god, and (a) he's barely 18 and (b) something like 30lbs lighter than his optimal playing weight. TONS of physical maturation still to do. ^^^Thanks for saying this better than I did.
Time to move Justin Che up the prospect rankings lists lol Here is Justin Che battling with Leon Goretzka in training. pic.twitter.com/mrEOtdHTbX— USMNT Only (@usmntonly) May 7, 2021 Bayern want to sign Justin Che permanently from FC Dallas. The player is currently on loan until the end of the season. Che wants to stay in Munich [@Plettigoal] pic.twitter.com/vw6AXYG6yJ— Bayern & Germany (@iMiaSanMia) May 7, 2021
On a loan with obligation to buy, so I don't really count him as part of the FCD org. He was in the 7th/8th tier before his transfer.
I like Pepi. Unfortunately I've seen world top 25 at his age. He isn't one of them. Sancho might be not one of the world top 25. And Pepi isn't Gio either. I like Sealy. Absolutely nothing makes Sealy a lock starter not even mentioning a star on the NT unless you mean TnT NT. And then there are plenty of guys that I don't like that much. The only player who is reasonably rated is Pomykal, and that's because we know what healthy Pomykal is, the rest are sweet dreams. With the same success one can pick up top players from U-7 - U10 teams and say that they have Messi potential.
I agree that there are individual players where I don't agree on the ceiling, and some in both directions. But I think you are missing that these are intended to be ceilings -- unlikely outcomes by definition. A 95th percentile means that you think the player has a 1 in 20 chance of reaching that height. I struggled with Pepi -- who I love more than most on this board -- being Top 25 in this world. Maybe that's a 99th percentile. But that's picking player by player, and I'm going to differ from OP. Is there a 1 in 20 chance Sealy reaches Pulisic / McKennie heights? I actually don't know that that one is wrong. He has the physical tools, he's young, and a 5% chance ain't much. Overall, he has 50 guys on his list. 95th Percentile mean only 2-3 make the level he's saying. It's a clear, but perhaps high, definition of ceiling. David's list is more reasonable, but isn't necessarily ceiling -- it's far more probable that those players reach the level David has -- more than 5% of those guys are getting there.
Way more reasonable and makes plenty of sense. And I don't believe in ceilings for young kids period. As I said, thousands of kids seemingly have Messi ceilings. But actually not thousands but may be 5, and none of them will ever reach it. Messi was signed by Barca at 12 after his Argentinian club refused to sign him. And plenty of people on Barca were skeptical, and those two that persistent look like geniuses now, and probably are. And I yet to see American kid that would be so much different to say that he would be one of the greats. Pele, Maradona. Messi Ronaldo were. Neither Pulisic, nor Reyna were expected to become what they are now despite being the top players in their age groups. So for me discussions of Richards, Clark or Cowell ceiling make sense as they established they floors. What is Dante Sealy floor or Corcoran's?
Establishing a floor would depend upon your approach. Future theoretical which assumes there is at least SOME improvement, or practical which would set the floor at the current level. Future theoretical would be 100% subjective, as is future ceiling. Practical would be objective but hardly much use for predictive purposes. the important thing about a floor and a ceiling isn't so much the actual floor and ceiling but the range. Most will not end up at their absolute floor or their absolute ceiling but rather somewhere in the middle. reaching either of the extremes requires everything going right (or wrong depending upon the direction) and not all is under complete control of the player. I think the general idea of projecting a player into a "tier" is basically the same thing and is good because it provides some specific guidelines for each tier. Important to remember, of course, that the op didn't intend this to be anything more than a conversation piece (as I understand his motivations).
Tiers are fine, projecting anyone to top 25 in the world is highly speculative. Messi, Ronaldo. or Sancho would have been destroying MLS. Lewandovsky or Klose were unknown at 20. 14 yo, to be projected to top 25, must be Messi or Maradona, not even Ronaldo. I would love to see any clips of any 14 years old that would give reasons to believe that he is at least new Pulisic. And then Nyeman looked like new Pulisic at 14 and now it's debatable whether he is on a track for tier 5, 6 or 7 of OP. Seriously, Pepi is what 2 months younger then Reyna? He played 600+ minutes in MLS and scored 3 goals. Why he would be expected to be one of the top in the world? That's all pure hype from the top to the bottom of the list with the exception of Pomykal.
Now this is a fun discussion. Exactly what I show up hoping to see. Love the speculation, love the optimism. Floor is definitely a more difficult concept it explore than ceiling (and a heck of a lot less fun). If you did it the same way and said 5th percentile outcome, the floor for every single one of these kids is "out of football by 23." Maybe 25th percentile makes more sense, basically nothing particularly going wrong, but nothing working out either. But that's way less fun that claiming a 15 year old has a 1 in 20 shot of becoming a top 25 player in the world. Which is a bet I will definitely, definitely give you 20 to 1 odds on. (Not just on Corcoran, more than happy to take that bet on any 15 year old in the world)
Of course, bottom line is that any long term projection needs to be taken with a grain of salt, more so when that projection is specific or extreme. i personally believe that it is pretty hard to believe that ANY team in the world would have two concurrent players with the potential to be top 25 world-wide but I'm also not going to say that it is impossible that one or more of the players on that list won't exceed (perhaps far exceed) our my expectations. It wasn't that long ago that people were questioning whether or not Adams was good enough to play midfield for the USMNT and felt that he would be lucky to get time at RBS. These long term projections can be fun if we don't take any of them too seriously and we allow ourselves to have a little fun with them.
Eyes on NTSC's game tonight against Chattanooga. Buzz is predicting that Corcoran starts. It'll be interesting to see if there are other youngsters in the group. NTSC had two players pick up red cards in the last game, so they're thin for this one. For 2 straight weeks, we've heard the story that Quill has considered starting Matthew Corcoran at the 6... this week I predict it happens. I'm going to roll the dice a bit and say Almaguer gets the last spot in midfield over Bruce. That puts 2 vet 8s in front of Corcoran.— 3rd Degree (@3rdDegreeNet) May 8, 2021
Dallas is so woeful in the final third. Obrian’s goals always look accidental and Jara is just not that good.
I only watched the second half and watched Jara kill four chances in a row with poor play. The announcers were hilarious -- the FC Dallas guys always pump him up or make excuses -- the Cantor kid (Nico?) was basically like "ummm, he was really mediocre at Pachuca and is super ... static." I thought Pepi looked decent, Pomykal looked great -- but mostly on defense. He was having to get back and made 3-4 interceptions in his own box, and he came in for the LW, Vargas. Dallas just really couldn't keep the ball on basic passing -- Hollingshead was pretty bad today -- poor touches, poor passes. Ricaurte was similarly poor, losing quite a few good chances just with a poor touch. Sealy showed why he a prospect, but also was really rough when he first came on.
Another fun project would be to see how a US team could be built with players from and still with a club. So a player would have to play for the team he started with. FC Dallas would be decent. Keeper would have to be the guy cut for very bad behavior though. RSL and LAG would get back some lost players. All players have to still be playing.