Not quite, but we'd be really close. Getting the win in Columbus would put us ahead in the season series (currently 1-1-0, goal differential 0) with one match at RFK left to play and nine available points total remaining. If New England loses as well, then we'd be seven points clear of them with the nine available points. Importantly, we've already won the season series with them (2-0-1 with one match left), so we've got that tiebreaker already locked up.
The bottom line is that we need to enter the playoffs on a roll. I anticipate the boys will go into Columbus and get a result- at least a draw. We play tough against NE and I see another result there- hopefully a win. From there it's two home matches, that again we hope for results in. Of course it's going to be close down the stretch, but if we're not hitting our stride now, then it doesn't matter if we squeak in or miss out. We need to continue to play well and hard and expect the results. (Notice my tactical use of the positive thinking.)
Playoff Race in the East (R) Don't read any further if you're taping/TIVOing matches from this weekend that involve any East teams. Comments follow below... Okay....Metro beat SJ 2-0 at SJ. I'm surprised. An early goal stood up, they get another at the 90 minute mark. Plus, NE won handily at Dallas. What this means for DCU... 1. I think it's highly unlikely we can get 2nd place in the playoffs. For us to do that, Metro would need to fade. I thought that possible b/c of some card issues and the difficulty getting goals. But Guevara is on-fire, he's just seizing the team by the scruff of their collective necks and dragging them along (as we saw in the USOC semi). 2. NE is just 2 points behind us. 3. While my pride in my team would like us to finish as high as possible (plus acknowledging that a second place finish would mean danger for the Metros), I'm actually wondering if we're better off facing Chicago in the playoffs (which would mean a 4th place finish in the East)? I don't consider Chicago anyone's weak sister. But my thinking is: we've played them tough most of the year (and granted, some of the results were before their youngsters had grown up or when we had a lot of people missing for various reasons that have now retured.) But DCU is one of the top teams in MLS in the last third of the match--we outscore the opposition and don't give up many goals. Except against Metro--who finds ways to grab late goals against us and get results. I think we're far enough ahead of Columbus that just about any kind of positive result in our last matches (especially if one of those matches involves C-bus) puts us in the playoffs. But with only a 2-pt lead over NE, we could easily see them get ahead of us b/c they win one more match than we do. Thoughts (both to the weekend's results AND to the idea of us against Chicago vs. Metro)?
So any combination of a Columbus loss and at least one point by our boys over the next three games and we are in
Current Standings Code: [size=4] GP W D L Pts CH 27 13 8 6 47 NY 27 11 8 8 41[color=red] DC 27 10 8 9 38[/color] NE 27 9 9 9 36 CB 27 8 8 11 32 [/size] Remaining Matches Chicago: Columbus, Colorado, @Columbus Columbus: chicago, DC United, Chicago MetroStars: Dallas, New England, @New England New England: DC United, MetroStars, MetroStars DC United: @New England, Columbus, Kansas City The MetroStars are playing Dallas next. If they don’t win handily I’ll be shocked. So let’s basically just give them 44 points with two matches left. It’s conceivable that we catch them but we’d have to rely on a resurgent Revolution. And if there’s a resurgent Revolution then I suspect we drop down to fourth place next weekend. So that’s the problem, we’re unlikely to get into second (and keep it) if only because the only team that can help us get into second is also the team that’d bump us down to fourth place in the process. And, to be honest, I expect the Metros will do pretty decently in that series against the Revs. I’m pretty sure that Columbus is dead. DC United didn’t play brilliantly in the second half that I was able to see (I still hate you Adelphia cable) and from all reports they played pretty miserably in the first half. It sounds like had the Crew been an at all decent team they would have been up a goal or two after 45 minutes. That they weren’t probably speaks less to the quality of DC United’s play than to the incompetence of Columbus. They’re playing Chicago next weekend at the new Soldier Field. There’s no way they’re going to win that. Chicago plays so well and so quickly. I expect them to walk away with three points. I think that alone would put the Crew’s “tragic number” at one. It'd require a near miracle at that point for them to make the playoffs. I don’t know about New England. That was a good win yesterday but they were playing Dallas so I’m not sure what that result really says. It got them three points but I doubt it means they’re gonna go on a tear. As for playoff matchups … The choice between the Metros and Chicago are two sides of lousy. We didn’t match up well against the Metros this season. We did better against Chicago but the truth is Chicago is a better team that DC United. They’re playing really nicely right now and judging from what I saw yesterday I have to think in their current form they could dribble circles around DC United. Neither prospect is good. Given the choice I’d have to go with the Metros if only for the sake of the rivalry.
Re: The Eastern Conference Playoff Race - DC United Edition i went to the source of this picture and went through the website and came across the songs from Foxboro 99. holy moly there are some really good ones we have sort of abandoned in there.
see, i dont get to RFK as much as i would like, but i ran across this song on that page and i dont know how much it gets sung but ive never heard it: Mine eyes have seen the sorrow of the hapless MetroStars. They all wear women's clothing And they hang around in bars! The Galaxy's no better, ‘Cause they act like they're from Mars. And DC marches on! Glory, glory to United, Glory, glory to United, Glory, glory to United, And DC marches on!
... mod's note ... I must have accidently closed this thread for probably about half and hour. Reopened now. And let's keep things reasonably on topic here.
Current magic numbers for DC United: To clinch a playoff spot (Columbus): 4 To clinch third place (NE): 8 Magic number for the Scum to clinch second place: 7
Clearly, from the standings and their recent form both Metros and Chicago are better than us. For once the league standings actually reflect reality in the sense that we pretty much are the fifth best team in the league. Hey, its better than being the worst or second worst, right ? I'd rather face Chicago in the semis just because 1) I'm sick of the Metros and 2) if we have to go out at that stage it would hurt less to go out to Chicago. If we were to get to the conference final, well, it's just one game at that stage and at least we have beaten Metros (assuming they make the final) in the Swamp once this year. And who knows, maybe all the pressure of a Double looming might be too much for Bradley's Young Punks, thus leaving the door open for our Grizzled Veterans.
I thought we matched up well against Chicago. I wouldn't mind facing them. I also wouldn't mind putting the Mutts out of their misery in the first round. Either series would be winnable, but we certainly wouldn't be favored in either one. Anyway, simply hope we're there to be counted come playoff time. It's been too long. However (and here I knock firmly on wood) things are falling nicely into place. Let's hope we go into the playoffs on a roll and from there, anything is possible.
Normally I know what the phrase "match up well against" means but in terms of the Metros, I really don't know. We didn't play well against them--they've done a good job frustrating us (especially when they were undermanned). More importantly, we're a really tough team to score against in the last 20 minutes--except against them. I've got to be a realist and say that for some reason, Metro finds a way to score big, late goals against us. You can't say it's b/c our team is out-of-shape--b/c then other teams would do it (beat us late). You can't say it's the matchups--b/c every time it's been someone else (it's not like it's all Mathis--he hasn't been a factor this year). While the results have been the same this year, the script has varied in each case so it's not the tactical approach. One the one hand, if I was the Metros and had to count on a 17 year-old P-40 rookie (Magee) and John Wolyniec as my "go-to" guys to get me goals, I'd be very nervious come playoff time. But that said, they've gotten results against us.
I think that you'd want to finish 3rd place and face the Metros rather than the Fire for one reason... A couple of upsets gives you the home game for the Conference Final. Plus, I think New England has caused more problems for the Fire than anyone, so you guys take on the Metros and hope for your sake Revs upset the Fire and then you get to stay home playing for the rights to go to HDC.
So, Knave, what we can gather is that everything is still quite tight from 3-5 in the East, with everyone having a shot? We simply need to continue to go out and get results. The point on Saturday was huge. A point in NE this weekend would also be huge. That sets us up for a crunch match-up with Columbus, assuming they get the results they need. (Of course, with Chicago needing points this weekend to clinch 1st, that's not a given.) All in all, I like our chances, but we still have work to do.
Here are the remianing games in the East and Max Points. Code: [u] Team GP W D L Pts MaxPts Remaining Games[/u] CH 27 13 8 6 47 [b]56[/b] 10/10 v.CLB, 10/18 v. COL, 10/26 @ CLB NY 27 11 8 8 41 [b]50[/b] 10/11 v. DAL, 10/18 v. NE, 10/25 @ NE DC 27 10 9 8 38 [b]47[/b] 10/11 @ NE, 10/19 v. CLB, 10/25 v. KC NE 27 9 9 9 36 [b]45[/b] 10/11 v. DC, 10/18 @ MET, 10/25 v. MET CB 27 8 11 11 32 [b]41[/b] 10/10 @ CHI, 10/19 @ DC, 10/26 v. CHI
Here's all that you need to know about DC's playoff situation: If you don't beat New England on Saturday night, you'd better start making peace with the idea of rooting for the Metros in their last two games of the season.
That's just a matter of seeding unless you actually think the Crew is gonna win its next two games. And even then it's not the Metros we'd be rooting for against Columbus.
The playoffs are ours for the taking. 3 games remaining. #1 a road game against NE, an eastern rival also vying for playoff position in which a draw (and a Crew loss) would be massive, #2 and #3 are huge given that #2 is not only against an eastern rival in Columbus but also a home game, and of course #3 is a home game to end the season. I think you have to like DCU's chances. I can't believe I'm this optimistic at this point in the season.
And with next week's game being Columbus @ DC United. Any result from United would put them in the playoffs.
Well, it may be "just a matter of seeding," but would you rather play Chicago or the Metros in the first round?
The seeding is huge. Personally I would rather play the Metros in the 2 game series if possible. Chicago is capable of putting 3 or 4 on the board against us and 2 games gives them the better chance for that. A series with the Metros is probably going to be close both games.
Although Chicago is a much better team than the Metros, DC United has actually matched up against the Fire pretty well this year. Because I hate the Metros so much, though, I'd really like for DCU to stick it to them first. Either way, though, the road to the MLS Cup goes through Chicago.