I am sorry to have doubted you, Knave. As a fellow pessimist, I should have trusted my instincts, loaded up with weapons and ammo, and hid in the bunker. Hopefully my neighbor's "Felines not Felons" sign will go unnoticed by the New Red Army once they come to power. You are an excellent fighter for commander Grimes. !!!!!!Hail Grimes!!!!!
I was hoping I was wrong, too, but the line at my polling place (7:15 a.m.) looked A LOT more like 2016 than 2020. That told me that the fact that signage looking more like 2020 than like 2016 had given me a false glimmer of hope on my Sunday walk around town. I should really know better.
Trump is going to get the same turnout that he got in 2020. Voters didn’t break for him. Voters who showed up in 2020 for Biden/against Trump couldn’t be bothered to show up in 2024 for Harris. Over 10 million of them.
So PSA spilt some tea that might also be a big part of the answer here. Apparently when Biden was refusing to drop out and his staffers were briefing against Kamala (yes that happened), he was sitting on internal polling showing Trump winning 400 EVs. The point is, things may have been much further underwater than anyone realised, and there just wasn't enough road to turn it around. It seems the national environment was Trump +6, and Kamala's campaign got that down to 3 in the swing states. This also suggests that while Biden's age was one known negative with voters, the wrong track numbers were much more significant than thought and that was a big factor in Biden's terrible favs tldr Biden really needed to step aside in 2022 for dems to have a shot and it probably needed to be a candidate who could run as a challenger/change candidate
https://newrepublic.com/post/188127...al-hopeful-mike-davis-drag-bodies-street?s=34 I'm sure everyone will be fine.
These guys are all like Chet from Weird Science. Aggro, weirdo, the veins in their necks probably have veins in their necks. One hopes they are sufficiently repulsive not to have successfully reproduced.
She is gonna end up with around 74m votes. So the difference will be more like 7m in the end. Most of those no-shows were in non-battle ground states if you exclude Florida where she got -600k. Some of that might have been more like shift to Trump than no-shows. So lost votes.
I'm just depressed. I will be leaving the country for good in 8 weeks, but it's 2.5 years earlier than I was hoping for. This means I can't choose the retirement I was working toward and instead have to deal with a very limited choice with considerable drawbacks no matter which I go for. At least I can leave, which is better than most.
I'm of the opinion it was effectively an unwinnable election, given the circumstances. Maybe if they had seriously challenged Biden for the nomination it could have been different, but in reality I don't think it would have made a difference. Americans are not the brightest bunch on the planet.
I'm of the opinion that this deserved defeat was at least a decade in the making by a Democratic party that fundamentally doesn't understand what it takes to win. Hell, they don't even truly understand that the point is to win. It's all just performative purity and institutional piety. That ain't the political world we live in. As a "political" party, they are fcuking useless.
So I’m guessing all of the savvy geniuses in this thread who are predicting an economic meltdown have big bets shorting the S&P 500?
i think the problem is more structural. Liberal democracy can’t work without a sane centre right party. Especially in a two party system. The right has build a vast infrastructure for an anti democratic system. the institutions and elites who were supposed to be the Bulwark against that simply failed. remember that the electoral college is supposed to protect against the exact situation we are now in.
So tell us exactly what your smart money move is my friend. What important trades have you made or will you make now that Trump is here to tank the economy?
If you think this is the thread for this that discussion, you should work on your reading comprehension skills.
I’ve seen a lot of “doom and gloom” about how Trump will tank the economy. I’m simply asking the experts whether they actually believe in their own predictions.