Yeah, the point about IC's, (as we normally discuss them on here, which is in rather disparaging terms, tbh), is that they say they're 'independent' but sometimes they're either lying OR, (in some senses even worse), they think they're independent... but they're not. Too often they'll readily accept some definitions, (like Renee Good being a 'domestic terrorist'), whilst recoiling from others, (such as calling what happened in Gaza 'genocide'). If they did both of those I'd say they're not really IC's... they're basically just right-wingers who don't like to think of themselves as being right-wing. If people have an honest opinion it makes them easier to have a conversation with, even if they're wrong, than if they're being dishonest, especially with themselves.
My concern with this is those victories are after the fact and result in reversals. I’m not sure you can get an injunction to stop something before they try it. And they will absolutely try it. And members of this court…were either sitting or actively arguing Bush v Gore for bush. We are simply not prepared for what is coming. Particularly given the overwhelming evidence that state and local law enforcement will twiddle their thumbs while federal LE’s fo whatever the ******** they want.
Sure. But it's an ongoing problem in these discussions that people mix up Trump's base with people who voted for Trump in 2024. Many of the people in the latter group, don't like Trump. They made a dumb decision in 2024 For instance, those who work on hispanic voters have been warning for years about drift of the demographic away from being reliable dem voter. Then we saw it in spades in '24, and MAGA imagined this was a 'new alignment'. However the rapid collapse of that support shows it wasn't an alignment at all. Those people are not trumpers. The problem is it might be too late for them to wake up and smell the coffee.
To paraphrase Talarico (see my YouTube link on the Christian thread)….dont tell me what you believe. Tell me what you do and support and I’ll tell you what you believe
You haven't convinced me that he doesn't embody their values. Let's be honest, a lot (not all) of them voted for him because of their prejudice. These are not people who had no clue as to who he really is. These are not people who were not aware of his blatant bigotry. And they voted for him anyway.
If those people have my views on the way the world should turn, sure. But I don't think you were talking about those people. And my point was that there are Left Wing populists who did vote for Trump. But they voted for Trump over Harris because of racism and sexism.
I agree those people are beyond redemption, and everyone who voted for him is morally responsible But there is a lot of research showing significant numbers of gettable voters voted for him because they believed dumb things like Trump was good at the economy last time, or he was only deporting criminals. If we talk about trump voters as if they are all base voters, then the discussion is low value.
Who is the "we" that is bold? What I will say is that a lot of the anti-Trump legal is prepared as can possibly be. The problem is the nature of the courts: you can't start a court challenge for something that hasn't happened. Saying that, there are lots of places that are prepared for court challenges, and Trump was so unable to focus on multiple things while he was competent, now that he is cognitively impaired, it will be more difficult for him. Take GA for example. If he really wanted to pull those shenanigans he would have been doing this in multiple states. Instead, he is so focused on his loss in 2020 that he is only able to focus on one state at a time, and out side of places like Texas and Florida/5th Circuit, those shenanigans will get ruled against him, and as it get closer to the elections, things will be slow-walked through the courts meaning SCOTUS won't be able to rule in his favor until after the election. And that is only if he has strong interest in the 2026 elections, which I don't think he really does because he's not on the ballot. And 2026 will be the primer for 2028. When Dems take Congress (I'm beginning to suspect they will get the Senate as well), it will make things that much more difficult. And even if Dems only have the House, that will thwart Trump on the law-passing side. The only thing the Dems in Congress can do right now regarding voting is make sure the SAVE Act is not passed. Apart from that, I'm not worried.
Not to mention, if Dems run a White male of reasonable age, that will get a lot of younger voters as well.
There is a reason that Trump is promoting polls that primarily focus on his base - because out side of his base (the 30% to 40% of Republicans), he is doing very poor. Yes, polls are not voting, but the questions that are asked such as about corruption and Epstein and ICE and affordability are all issues that will move voters. And all of those areas he is doing poorly (on average, Comrade). And when looking at young and non-White voters, his support now is much lower than it was just before he got elected. And that is not even talking about Speaker Johnson is already talking like House Republicans are going to lose their majority from the November elections.
This is how Europe thinks of the US these days. Its well worth a look and listen. I don’t know how to embed it https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1CEo9pVa8k/?mibextid=wwXIfr
One study I saw is that 'Mericans who call themselves independents are around 40-something % of the population and rising in recent years . But only like 9-10% truly vote like an independent thinker. The rest break Dem or Republican each election. It may be disgust with the two major parties. But I think It's mostly a talking point "Look at me. I'm not beholden to one party"
Back of the mail-in ballot envelope math...65.3% (or 154 million people) voted in 2025. Wow that's higher than I thought. So if we're fighting over true independents (and undecideds near election day), what's the "gettable" population? 15-20 million? In the 2024 presidential election, 73.6% (or 174 million people) of the citizen voting-age population was registered to vote and 65.3% (or 154 million people) voted according to new voting and registration tables released today by the U.S. Census Bureau. These data come from the 2024 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration Supplement for the November 2024 presidential election, which surveyed the civilian noninstitutionalized population in the United States. https://www.census.gov/newsroom/pre...tial-election-voting-registration-tables.html
I agree that whether the midterms will be “free and fair” is an open question. But what alternative is there to being optimistic and fighting like hell and hoping for the best? Again, I don’t criticize you for leaving, I fully understand that. But those of us without that as a realistic option are in a different place, literally and figuratively. My own prediction is that there will be clear and obvious shenanigans. I feel pretty confident about that. But will it be enough to change enough outcomes to keep GOPs in power, like Florida 2000, or will it be at the margins and not change which party controls congress? Ohio 2004 had a lot of shenanigans but AIUI Bush would have won without that. 2020 had shenanigans galore but Biden won anyway. So that’s the “optimistic” take…there will be cheating, but let’s hope Democrats can overcome it. What a world….
I see hints of signs of harbingers of suggestions that is changing, and we’ve got 9 months. But yeah, we aren’t prepared yet. Could you expand on this? My take would be that state and local governments are grappling with what can be legally done. A lot of this is behind the scenes; I see news items here and there but we don’t talk about them in this forum. In short, I’m a lot less pessimistic about the “will” of cities and states to oppose Trump. The problem has been more in practical terms, not motivation.
For a variety of reasons, ticket splitting is at an historic low. I mean, look at how well Mark Robinson ran in his governor race in North Carolina. He was completely unqualified and crazy plus he’s black so racist Republicans had every reason to abandon him. Stein only beat him by 15 points. That’s crazy. (North Carolina is kind of the anti-Massachusetts in that it’s generally a Republican state, but Democrats do very well running for governor. So the baseline would have been Stein +2, something like that. Yet Stein only won by 15 because party loyalty is so dominant nowadays.) I think what happens is that low information loyal Republicans voters adopt the policy ideas of leading Republicans. In 2012 they were very pro free enterprise, and now they’re not, because Trump and Romney are different. If somehow that Bacon guy from Nebraska was the Republican nominee in 2028, you’d see that type of voter change his position on all kinds of issues. Democrats do it too, the low information, but very loyal, types.
What has to be remembered is we are talking about voters on the margins in a small number of states that decide the election For example, too many young Biden 20 voters in the swing states did not vote in '24 or switched. Similar things happened in 20 in reverse. What 90% of team elephant / or base MAGA voters thinks doesn't matter in any practical way. Those people are never gettable. Though hopefully they get demobbed.
Not sure how widespread this is, but when I was still in WI, there was a look at younger voters and a lot of them were identifying as "independent" because it allowed them to have friends of varying political views and not be pigeonholed into a group. The voting aspect is still true about how they vote relative to their political views, but the identification is not a "look at me," but a disgust at the hellscape of politics. I wonder if this is advancing to older groups as well.
Also, for many, many voters, the general elections are a foregone conclusion for one party or the other. Who wins is decided in the primary. Registering independent allows you to cast a meaningful vote.
I'm not so sure the kids are ever coming back. They're kind of done with free-market capitalism and hate Democrats more than Republicans these days, or so I'm told.