I must spread yaddayaddayadda.... As for the formation business, I kinda like including James in the lineup...He may have a couple of rough points, still, but he's got the fire lacking in much of the team.
I know that's what the site says. But drawing playoff odds from 3 games is an extremely dubious enterprise. If we win our next two games our odds will rise dramatically. (If we win ...) So to cite those odds at this time, given how flimsy and volatile they are at this point in the season, can't be taken totally seriously. And I think he knew that when he posted it, hence my comment. There's no way in hell it's going to take 49 points to make the playoffs. The Crew won the shield last year with 49 points. For the last three years teams have made it in with as few as 39 or 40 points. Go look up the tables yourself. Point is, that 49 point figure is generated out of the algorithm. It's not a judgment call and it's not a historically based call. As more games are played and more data comes in that number will drop -- a lot. All I can tell you right now is that if you look at this league over the last few years, 40 points has been about the bare minimum you need for a playoff berth. That's why I use it as a rule of thumb. That said, 8 losses probably is a good rule of thumb too. More than that and you're screwed. But even that's not foolproof: it depends how many draws you have. Last year the bottom three playoff teams all had double digit losses, but none of them had double digit draws.
That 2007 team was playing sound, but uninspired soccer. This team is not playing in a sound way both offensively and defensively. The talent is not as bad as many are portraying it to be. When players are not on the same page, defenders get hung out to dry by themselves, attacks die with passes to nobody - everybody looks much worse then they would otherwise. This team does not have a system of play and that is pure poisen at the professional level. I have consistently preached for patience in the past because that is what I felt was constructive. I don't see this as a team in need of patience. At the same time, I do believe that this is a franchise in need of patience - until they get a new stadium in the DC area. So, for the time being anyway, I am Mr. Patient - no matter how much it kills me to watch what I am watching.
I disagree. He is not a Target forward. He does not play well with his back to the goal and has trouble holding the ball under pressure from a centerback in those situations. He is a very mediocre wing. His work rate up and down the flank leaves a lot to be desired. His defensive skills are minimal and rarely either applies high pressure or comes back to help the wing back on his side. A group of us were watching him last year from the upper deck behind the goal rather than at our usual midfield season ticket seats (long story). Anyway, this perspective just showed how little defense or workrate Tino showed. A least a couple of times you could see Ben Olsen irritated that the opposing team's wing or back had not been tackled, and came across 40 or 50 yards to come in at take the attacker out while Tino just watched. You could also see the frustration Burch showed when Tino would not track back and pickup the wing back or midfielder supporting the opposing teams forward in attack on that side. On the opposite attacking side you rarely saw Tino take someone on. Instead he would either drop the ball back or switch fields. The one area I would agree that Tino is above average is his passing ability in a technical not creative sense.
I like how Tino' can score, and works well on quick give and go plays when he is the reciever and at times would score off runs where he can burn a defender on his speed, he is not a forward. He is more like a poor mans cristiano ronaldo, but with out the ability to beat players on the dribble, or his ability to cross well. Q' i think at best would be on any other a team a average starter/ good sub.
we knew what the 2007 team was capable of. we don't know what this team is capable of, and so far it appears to be nothing
Sorry by facetious I thought you meant he made the number up. Agreed that three games in that is extremely suspect number. As far as the 40 point mark, interesting that the number hasn't changed with the addition of teams.
So Olsen says "a lot of great teams in the history of this league that have started 0-3." Well, I had to look that up. He's not totally wrong, but he's perhaps overstating things with that "a lot" bit. Of the 13 teams that have gone 0-3 to start the season, 3 would seem to qualify as great: the 1996 United, the 2004 Crew and the 2007 United. 1996 DC United (3 outright, 4 with SO) – MLS Cup Champions New York – 3rd place in East, defeated by DCU in semifinals 1997 Los Angeles (1 SO loss) – Second in West, defeated in semifinals 1998 Tampa (1 SO loss) – 5th in East, no playoffs New York – 3rd in East, defeated in semifinals San Jose (3 SO losses) – 5th in West, no playoffs New England (1 SO loss) – 6th in East, no playoffs 1999 Tampa (2 outright, 4 with SO) – 3rd in East, defeated in semifinals Kansas City (3 outright, 7 with SO) – 6th in East, no playoffs 2001 New England (2 outright, 6 with OT) – 3rd in East, no playoffs 2004 Columbus – Supporters' Shield 2007 DC United – Supporters' Shield 2010 DC United – Current season.
Another great post, Knave. But the pessimist in me says that only three teams since 2001 have even made the playoffs after starting 0-3.
Hold the freaking ball. I haven't seen a lot of DC this year, just some highlights and the Philly game. Based on that, my takeaway so far is that we're completely incapable of playing through the midfield in the face of pressure. Our goals came basically out of thin air and against the run of play. And in a flukey way, not a brilliant counterattacking kinda way. We need a holding midfielder...someone who can control the pace and flow of the game, because, frankly, we shouldn't be pressin' the court like the Heels. We're just wearing ourselves out to no effect. If we were good at that, that's one thing - I can't say I'd like it, I'm one of those freaks that would rather watch DC play attractive holding soccer and lose on occasion, but a win or two wouldn't be bad either - but we're apparently not capable of it. Under pressure. At all. I dunno, maybe I'm just misreading the situation, and a couple guys aren't on the same page or something. And sure, you can play quickly and deliberately through midfield, but it just seems like everyone's desperate to get the ball off their feet and into a forward position, which, when it actually works, is leaving vital cogs behind the play. I know we have someone on our team who can hold the ball, has excellent vision and is an outstanding distributor, if only I could think of his name.... Tino! Nah, that's not it... Ya sure this guy is our best forward, but does it even matter if we can't hold up, work the ball, switch fields, pull guys out of position, expose coverage lapses? How do you systematically dismantle an opponent without a playmaker? He's still a scoring threat from distance. Forward is the least of our problems. We've got some potential there. I want to see us play some good old-fashioned DC United, thanks-for-coming,-pick-up-your-ankle-braces,-clinic-tchotchkes,-and-self-respect-on-the-way-out soccer. I don't see how we do that without Jaime or some similarly talented as-of-yet-unnamed DP running the midfield. Baseline. Of course maybe we're just entirely incapable of anything resembling a creative offense, but DC United's long and pretty much unbroken history of playing beautiful soccer would seem to suggest they must have incorporated a few sow's ears into their silk purses along the way. Although their play thus far has come close to disproving the existance of God, my faith is grounded in Tradition. PS -> is it just me, or is Allsopp still trying to adjust to the physicality of MLS defending?
Re: Hold the freaking ball. I think the first part pretty much answers the second part. Our forwards have been mostly starved for service. No creativity in midfield = no productivity from forwards.
Two teams thus far, you mean. You can look at those results in lots of ways. I really don't think the old results are very meaningful. Back when most everyone made the playoffs a lot of terrible were in the playoffs. Since 2000 the frequency of 0-3 starts has gone down. But the teams that have gone 0-3 since then are more likely to be very good teams that just start out poorly. In other words, the 0-3 starts since 2000 have most often been what you might classify as flukes. Columbus lost 3 to open 2004, but they only lost 5 all season. United lost 3 to open 2007, but they only lost 7 all season. And maybe that's what really different between now and 2007: very few seem willing to believe that our start in 2010 is just a fluke.
It's a sad commentary when a 37 year-old onetime striker who rarely shoots and can't go a full game at full speed is talked up as the savior of both the front line and midfield. We've had many years to come up with Jaime's replacement and he seems to be - Jaime. When Jaime is on the pitch he does a number of useful things: maintains possession (usually); makes a useful pass; and generally calms things down. What he doesn't do is make slashing runs; shoot from distance (or anywhere, for that matter); and play much defense. We need some of these guys. I had hopes for Jacobson, but now Philly has hopes for him. I thought Tino might work in the middle of things, but he hasn't and seems better outside. Simms is too limited, Barklage too new, Morsink not good enough. Is Pontius the answer? He doesn't yet finish well enough to be a lock at forward, but he makes intelligent runs so could perhaps play well behind the ball. Everyone I wanted to trade for is otherwise occupied: DeRo; Joseph; and Rolfe.
In retrospect, that trade to Philly is looking worse and worse. Gave up a reasonably good midfielder and a first round pick (which could have been used on a good Midfielder) for a GK that appears to have lost his mojo.
Don't forget a nice big chunk of allocation money as well. Ouch. But I'm not sure that Perkins has lost anything. I simply think he was overrated from jumpstreet. He is a nice keeper if you have a good experienced team in front of him. Generally, he is not a guy who is going to go out of his way to lose games for you. On the flip side, he generally isn't the kind of guy that is going to win games for you when the team is terrible. When he was here before, he played behind a good team. Now, he is not. People here seemed to believe that he was going to come here and cover for the sins of his teammates. That simply wasn't ever in the cards.
Re: Hold the freaking ball. Point well taken, his opportunities have definitely been limited, specially since I think Philly was his first game. But on a few occasions, he got pushed/pulled/messed around more than I expected for a guy his size. Maybe that was in contrast to Christman who came on like he'd just snorted a bag of dark roast.
I actually feel like he can cover up a bad defense pretty well, from what I've seen of him in the past. I honestly think that he's just in a funk like the rest of the team is, adding to this perfect storm of injuries etc. Also, I think our D in the first few games has been FAR beyond "bad".