The coming boom in multi-eligible player recruitment

Even with a 26 man roster, I really can only see Gomez being in play here for Mexico, and even then, I'd be a bit surprised.

If healthy, Arteaga is their starting left back and Gallardo is almost certainly going. With 23 spots, I think Gomez would need an injury. With 26, maybe not. Even if Gomez were starting in La Liga, I think it would be dicey (although pre-tourney friendlies may help).

Players like Leone and Perez are provisionally cap-tied to Mexico, but I don't think either is anywhere near on the radar for Qatar. Would they make our Olympic team? I suppose that'd be the one edge we have, but I'm not entirely sure they would. Leone is certainly in play; we'll likely spend an overage spot on a CB IF we qualify as Richards and Mark McKenzie are too old.

Canada? The only player in play for the US seems to be this Lucas Koleosho. I have never seen him, but he's a left winger who played exactly one minute at the end of the season for Espanyol. Canada may extend a spot, but there's no way he's coming on the US roster unless he literally starts dominating La Liga.

I really, really, really don't think we'll see someone who is a simple brazen cap-tie on the roster. For one, don't they have to play? Also, given the tight knit nature, do you want to deal with the team dynamics of leaving someone in a 4/5 fullback role home unless they actually get beat out? I think we have four fullbacks at least who are a pretty integral part of the culture -- if you bypass them, the player better be clearly ready and better, I think.

It's not to say it won't happen. Gomez seems the most likely because of the left back position and his quality, for sure. But I think he's going to have to earn it on merit and there's a good chance we'll have to bring five fullbacks.

I think two understated aspects of the Dominican and Guatemalan wins in U20 are

• Players like Edison Azcona and Arquimedes Ordonez are far more likely to stay with DR and Guatemala even if they end up US-quality. They are building friendships, have an amazing positive experience and feeling, have confidence that they can actually win games and have to feel a part of building something. Does Sergino Dest commit to the US if the US doesn't go to the U20 World Cup? Doubt it; the feeling would not be the same.
• The Recruiting tool is there. There are 6 CCAF spots for 2026 plus some wildcard spots. Yes, US, Mexico and Canada are likely to take 3, but they were likely to do that anyway. 3+ chances without those juggernauts included? And you are U20 team that will be more of a U23 team during qualifying -- and a U20 team that, if you can duplicate as an older team is going to the World Cup? Why not dream? Both the DR and Guatemala should be far better teams. It's not hard to sell the upside.

Meanwhile, the US team is going to become so hard to break into. I'd like to see us actively start to manage U23 team and perhaps a full B team like some National Teams used to do.

I mean, really, if you are Azcona and a central mid ... you know the US is going to be much better, and perhaps you are realist on DR's chances ... but holy crap ... Pulisic, Reyna, Aaronson, Musah, McKennie and then even at U20 ... Aaronson2, Clark, Luna, etc.

Perhaps he's better than all these guys someday. But like, if I'm the DR coach, this is a pretty strong sell.

 

I think we all have to accept that we are going to lose players to these small nations. It's going to happen. Would I like to lose players like Ordonez, Boatwright, Azcona, Valdez? No, but losing players like this will happen. It's highly possible there's 1-2 players we lost from this tournament (non-Mexico category) will end up USMNT quality. As far as I can tell, there's no one that is in the must-not-lose category, but having a lot of players in that lottery ticket category does tend to yield one or two eventual successes.

As for Mexico, I think their lack of qualification helps in a small way for U-20 WC and Olympics. They can't cap-tie any additional dual-nats. Chances are that they would've added a player or two that becomes cap-tied during those tournaments. Now it won't happen. Thats a bonus. I think the bigger benefit is long-term. Mexico's program is stagnant and ours isn't. They are relying heavily on dual-nats now that were developed outside of Mexico. If you take their best eligible U-20's, two of them are Gomez (developed in USA), Flores (developed in Canada), along with Leone, Perez, and maybe two kids developed in Mexico. They don't have many non-American dual-nats to begin with, so a player like Flores is not a sustainable strategy long-term.

If Mexico is relying on players like Leone and Perez long-term, I don't see how there's not a big eventual benefit for the US. If that number of 3 from this roster eventually becomes 7-8 or even 12-13, as they see that the Mexican-Americans produced in the USA are of a higher quality than the Mexicans produced in Mexico, the USA will likely be at a point where we are producing significantly better players and there's no debate to be had. If it gets to that point, while I think you'll still see the occasional player opt for the country of their heritage (as you occasionally might see for a Turk with Germany or Algerian with France), the majority of players are going to want to play for the country with the best chance of international success. That should be us. We see the trend of this, and I think the results of this tournament only show that trend even further.

 

It was interesting that Azcona seemed to delay the opportunity to be cap-tied to the DR in WCQs and NL matches. It feels a little bit like the Tomas Romero situation with El Salvador -- not quite ready to commit with the US looming in the background.

The usual rule for most dual nationals is "better or faster -- choose one." For Azcona, he has the rare opportunity for a two-fer. Obviously, the US has more sustained long-term better performance, but a guaranteed U20 WC and a chance to go the the Olympics is a huge get for an athlete with a short shelf-life.

DR hasn't really been a player in Concacaf at any level, so this breakthrough may allow them to heavily recruit a diaspora that hasn't been tapped for soccer.

 

Here are the numbers to support that:

Mexican diaspora:

Total population
Mexico 126,014,024

United States 37,186,361
Canada 128,480
Spain 61,194
Germany 41,000
Brazil 21,853

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexicans

 

If Gomez can break through in La Liga there's very much an opening for him to sneak his way onto the roster as the backup left back. Whether it's Bello, Vines, Tolkin, Paredes or Jones there's plenty of space for someone to make their case this fall and there's no reason it can't be Gomez.

But I agree that you can't bring him just because you want to cap-tie him and he'll have to play anyways for it to happen.

 

Obviously speculation on my part. He played 2 full NT friendlies in January 2021 (the only senior friendlies they played that year) and then the U23 Olympic tourney where DR lost all 3 matches badly. He wasn't in any of the 4 WCQs in 2021. He was called in for the NL matches last month, but didn't appear in the squad. It's possible they negotiated with Inter Miami to get his release for the U20s in exchange for leaving him during NL window. He's not playing much for Inter, so it's not like they would put up a big fight to keep him with the club.

Not being in the squad for several cap-tying opportunities (with the "3+ year waiting period if cap-tied under 21" applying) seems a little odd, especially with a fed like DR that would want to tie up top talent as early as possible.

Being provisionally cap-tied from the U20s is better than the 3 year wait, especially if you don't qualify to go further. I'm kinda guessing that if they had washed out at the U20s, he would have been happy that he kept his options only. Now, I think he won't be questioning his decision.

 

Yup. People should note that the Mexican diaspora in the United States would BY ITSELF be about equal to the total population of Canada. So not taking advantage of it would be insane. But federation politics can get in the way.

 

On one hand, sure.

On the other... IF we are healthy, three fullback slots are taken, IMO. Jedi, Dest and Yedlin are going.

At that point, I agree, slots #4 and potentially #5 (with a 26 man roster) are available. But as we've seen with Joe Scally -- who he will be competing with! -- simply playing in a top league doesn't mean you are ready to contribute.

I think Gomez has an edge that he is stylistically very similar to Jedi in terms of being able to bring verticality and width, and that's very important. But I also think that he's really going to have to show out, and being able to come to a friendly somewhere in there will be a big deal.

Especially since Berhalter has shown he will play Dest on the left.

 

It's a small window to be sure. The La Liga season starts on August 12 and the international window starts on September 19th (meaning the roster will probably be named August 14th or 15th). That gives him about a month to establish himself as regular player with Real Sociedad. And while I don't think it's crazy that he does so next season, I don't know if it'll happen in the first month of the season.

The same goes for Parades as the Bundesliga starts about a week earlier. I think he's closer to the first team than Gomez is, but I also think it's not clear left back or left wingback is going to be where Wolfsburg even plays him.

I think Dest right now is the clear backup at LB. And it's possible Berhalter will just take Dest, Yedlin, Cannon, and Jedi as his fullbacks. But Dest has had a number of injuries and I just don't think he works playing on the left with Pulisic.

If there's a 5 fullbacks I think there's a good chance it'd be someone whose able to play both sides like Scally.

 

I think the game where Dest cut in and had a rocket from left back was playing with Pulisic. Can't remember if they've played together again. Robinson is our best left back but I can't say he works particularly well with Pulisic. In fact what left back does work well with Pulisic considering national team and club teams?

 

Jedi works stylistically very well with Pulisic. Pulisic likes to cut inside and come back for the ball -- you need someone who will stay wide and provide verticality to create space for Pulisic.

Jedi's just not a great passer or combination player. It's a matter of execution, not style.

Dest doesn't work as well because he likes to cut inside, he likes to make runs up the middle of the field. That's exactly where Pulisic always goes, and it gets crowded and easy to defend. Dest and Aaronson or Dest and Morris would be a better fit on the left -- the runs they make would create holes behind them for Dest to dribble into.

I think Dest and Pulisic could work, but Pulisic would have to alter his game a bit and they'd really need to work on it. They don't always get in each other's way, but ending up in the same place shrinks the field and makes the defense easily be compact. As a result, you basically are asking for insane levels of execution to beat the D instead of stretching it out and creating lanes and holes to attack.

Dest is pretty hopeless as a wide fullback on the left -- he doesn't make vertical runs, and he doesn't have a cross from his left foot that I've seen. So it'd have to be Pulisic to change more.

 

I just remember them each going in and out combing and it seemed to torture the defense. Now if they did it a lot defenses would perhaps learn how to defend it better. Arriola has a good game combining with Pulisic also doing some of that but can't remember the formation that allowed them both to be working on the left side together. Seems Pulisic always gets paired with a classic crossing left back when a wide combing left back would be a better fit. Since left backs are so hard to find there's probably not a lot to pick from stylistically.

 

There's absolutely a world where they combine really well -- and hell, toss in Reyna -- and torture a defense. It's going to be much easier against weaker ones, though.

There's also a world where they get all up in each other's space, and a compact defense shuts them down.

I think it is perfectly viable, but Pulisic needs to go a lot wider and make a lot more runs than he often does. If he does that, it works pretty well (though not ideal). But I think we've seen that the team, when a bit frustrated, can really revert to instincts and move away from the gameplan. And that's where Dest and Pulisic kind of instinctually always move to the same place.

This worked really well with Pulisic as the left-sided 8 when that role was more of an 8/10. Arriola played the LW and was actually passable as a CM, so they could exchange. The benefit was that both could go wide, so when they played together, someone was always pulling the defense out and back.

With Pulisic as a playmaking LW ... there's no one to go wide and deep unless it is him or the LB. Which, backs to my paragraphs on Dest.

This all kind of pre-supposes that we are trying to implement positional play -- that we are trying to force the defense wider. If you are going to play in possession against a bunker, this is largely the way to go, especially with our personnel.

But there are teams that largely abandon the idea -- mostly pure counter attack or teams that play off size and aerial play.

I don't really know of an effective possession team that doesn't try to create spacing.

What is a wide-combing left back? I don't think I've ever heard that term. From context, I'm assuming you mean someone who can play wide (and fast) but can combine?

I think Dest could do that, but he a) his tendency is to come inside and b) he's not going to offer ANY crossing which a smart defense will react to.

Left backs that can do everything are few and far between. Jedi also has insane recovery speed, which is a bonus for a guy who is stretching the whole field.

 

I had forgotten the particulars so thanks for refreshing my memory. That is very different than what we are doing now.

Yes, you're getting the gist but even Dest isn't a left back he just plays one on TV when the real left back is injured. Chelsea always have a similar back to Robinson who can motor up the flank but then instead of working combos to free Pulisic into space they usually cross to the box. Guerrero with Dortmund would qualify but Pulisic rarely played on the left while there and I don't even remember how long they played together (or if at all).

 

I recently talked to A. Alvarado and D. Luna from the USMNT 🇺🇸 U-20s.

They are both eligible for 🇲🇽 as well and obviously left the possibility open.

However what caught my attention was that both said their focus now is with the US 🇺🇸 due to the U-20 World Cup and Olympics.

— Tactical Manager (@ManagerTactical) August 5, 2022

Qualifying to the youth tournaments and Mexico missing them can actually have a major impact in dual nats recruitment.

I haven’t spoken to JoGo recently, but one has to wonder how that can also affect his recruitment with the USMNT.

— Tactical Manager (@ManagerTactical) August 5, 2022

 

My guess, and it‘s not really a guess, is that Mex will make vague promises and cap tie anyone, and everyone they can at NL.

 

Mexico will do what we do when we fail to qualify for major tournaments like the Olympics.
Be super aggressive with callups for young players to the senior team.
They're not just going to say "oh well, now we can't bring in Alejandro Alvarado to anything. Let's not bother trying."

The top of the top of the food chain like Gomez are interested in senior callups.
Both the USMNT and Mexico have already called Gomez up to their senior teams.

I can understand why Luna and Alvarado are.............for the moment anyway..................interested in the U20WC and Olympic opportunities. As of right now, they're not really in the frame for the senior teams. Directly after the World Cup I won't be surprised if Alvarado is brought in to the senior team for a look (depending on his club form this season).

What would we expect them to say? Of course they're going to say they're focused on that.

 

Mexican fed has gone on record saying they will still have many U20 games for this cycle even if it just friendlies. They are trying to keep their team together at all cost.

 

Well, they do that anyway. They just will have more time, and make them more elaborate. Good point.