The coming boom in multi-eligible player recruitment

Discussion in 'Youth National Teams' started by Dave Marino-Nachison, Jul 27, 2020.

  1. Dave Marino-Nachison

    Jun 9, 1999
    While 2026 qualifying formats and related details haven't been disclosed, with the release of 2022 CONCACAF formats make today perhaps as good a time as any to think about what looks like it'll be a wild few years for player recruitment in this region and worldwide.

    A few things on the radar:
    • Among other CONCACAF 2022 storylines, surely the country with the most urgency to qualify is Canada, which could offer players back-to-back WC opportunities assuming that it auto-qualifies for 2026. (See the next point for more.)

    • While it hasn't been confirmed, given the expanded 2026 format and the likelihood that all three hosts will qualify automatically, the U.S., Mexico and Canada all have the opportunity to make cases to desirable players with other options. Some of those guys might move between CONCACAF nations; others might move in from elsewhere.

    • More generally, 48 teams means more World Cup opportunities for more players. That is almost certainly going to make guys consider their options throughout FIFA. It might also mean more movement out of the program, rather than in, and could even happen during qualification or before.

    • There have been noises about new rules regarding players eligible to play for multiple countries that, while they haven't been announced, will likely point to more movement/flexibility for players.
    And I'm sure there is more going on that I'm not aware of. (What did I forget?) Still, that's a lot going on at one time. It seems like there's about to be a ramping up in player movement that will be fascinating to watch.

    For context's sake, a player who will be 18 in 2022 would be a 2004 YOB or thereabouts. For 2026, that would be 2008. Sure, that seems crazy young, but Gio Reyna turns 18 in November, and you gotta figure he's at least in the U.S. 30 if there was a WC this year.

    Gonna be quite a ride!

    ... and yeah, I guess this is as much a MNT issue as a YNT issue. But for guys coming into more-competitive national programs with bigger pools, it may behoove them to consider switching earlier to start making their case. (That's just a guess, but seems reasonable.)

    There's probably a business opportunity here. Just gotta figure what it is and ... make all the money.
     
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  2. David Kerr

    David Kerr Member+

    United States
    Oct 18, 2019
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The big 4 dual nat battles that will take place over the 2026 cycle span will be for Phillipe Sandler, Bryan Okoh, Folarin Balogun, and Yunus Musah. These three are all on track to have extremely successful careers at the highest levels in Europe and would greatly benefit the USMNT.

    Sandler could help the USMNT immediately. He is young and plays regularly at a high level already. If I’m Gregg then I’m calling him up to the next available camp.

    Balogun and Musah are impossible for the 2022 cycle but should be priorities for 2026. Balogun is in a spot we need and despite being very talented may not likely be in the England picture because of how ridiculously good they are. Yunus Musah however is a big prospect for England and has worn the armband for them before. When people gripe and complain about Weston McKennie not being the most polished player on the ball then they should take a look at Yunus who would be a good player to overtake Weston. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Yunus get a Valencia first team debut next season.

    we could definitely potentially see Bryan Okoh accept a call up since Bryan is making it known that he is not decided on any of the 4 countries he’s eligible for. Bryan would walk into the u20 starting lineup as he’s a monster of a LCB who is good defensively and good on the ball. Leo Sepulveda is the weak link in the ideal u20 starting lineup currently and that issue could be quickly addressed with Bryan’s inclusion. Bryan would also turn the 2023 u20’s into a legit powerhouse and definite u20 World Cup favorites. Whether he would start next to Justin Che, Casey Walls, or Antonio Leone is tbd
     
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  3. David Kerr

    David Kerr Member+

    United States
    Oct 18, 2019
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I think the 2006’s will be the youngest group to get a real look for the USMNT for the 2026 cycle unless we see a freak talent from the 07’s/08’s. But the 2006’s also have an abnormal amount of diamond (Pulisic/Reyna level) talents. I personally think the 2006’s will become even better than the 2003’s. Bajung Darboe, Aaron Heard, Matthew Corcoran, and Alex Wesolowsky are the 4 who are safely USMNT players that I think are exceptionally elite talents.

    Adrian Gill and Ransford Gyan are the dual nat 06’s who will be the biggest battles. Adrian has accepted a call up for Catalonia already and it is unknown who he favors between Spain and the USA. Seeing as how Adrian is the highest rated 06 midfielder in the best academy in the world makes him top priority.

    Ransford Gyan is a player who I recently discovered after looking at the US Club Soccer international tour roster that sadly never got to happen. Ransford is another 10 who has an elite combination of technical, tactical, and athletic skill. This kid dominated Real Madrid at the International Champions Cup. Ransford is eligible for Ghana and may possibly be the son of Asamoah Gyan which would obviously complicate things (I think he may be or it’s pure coincidence that there’s a player who is young enough to be Asamoah’s son who is also an absolute beast on the field). The only weakness in Ransford’s game is that he’s super left footed (just as one footed as Richie Ledezma) but he made my jaw drop watching his game film. This kid is another top priority and if there’s any chance we can get him I’d send Brian McBride, Gregg Berhalter, and Ernie Stewart to his doorstep as soon as possible. This kid is a freak talent
     
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  4. Dave Marino-Nachison

    Jun 9, 1999
    Is there any basis for the notion that he might be Gyan's son besides the fact that they have the same name and some degree of Ghanaian lineage? Gyan has had some pretty well-documented family and other issues, none of which mention children based in the U.S. that I have seen. In 2006 AG was playing in Europe and his wife does not appear to be American.

    Barring a major breakout for Sandler this coming season, it's hard to see there being a battle with the Netherlands for his international signature ahead of 2022. Perhaps South Africa. With that said it doesn't seem crazy that he might have heard from the U.S. in some form by now.
     
  5. David Kerr

    David Kerr Member+

    United States
    Oct 18, 2019
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I’ve seen a couple people say he may be and it was purely speculation. I have no idea if he is or isn’t his son. I thought maybe he is and the apple didn’t fall far from the tree. Maybe he’s related somehow but it’s unknown
     
  6. Dave Marino-Nachison

    Jun 9, 1999
    I swear I didn't know when starting this thread that a whole bunch of 2026 info was going to come out later in the day! From @bshredder:



    Others have posted/shared similar stuff, but since he's our pal, I'll go with his tweet.

    However you slice it, we're basically looking at a competition for 3-5 slots. These, per Wiki, are the CONCACAF countries that have competed in the Hex era that aren't the U.S., Mexico or Canada: Costa Rica, Honduras, Jamaica, Panama, T&T, El Salvador and Guatemala.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hexagonal_(CONCACAF)#Records

    Even if you figure Costa Rica is a lock or close to it, that's still 2-4 slots for other teams.

    And of course, this applies only to MNTs, leaving out relevant YNT stuff, which will only mean more opportunities for players.
     
  7. TxEx

    TxEx Member+

    Tottenham Hotspur, Crystal Palace, FC Dallas
    Aug 19, 2016
    DFW
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    If Kik Pierie gets himself sorted out at FC Twente, he's a guy who may help fill the void at CB. Good pedigree who has no shot at playing for the Orange.
     
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  8. David Kerr

    David Kerr Member+

    United States
    Oct 18, 2019
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    If Kik does I still think there’s some options we have already who’d be above him
     
  9. Dave Marino-Nachison

    Jun 9, 1999
    What do people think of this format for a working tracker of players of note who are not permanently cap-tied to the U.S. (or another country if they are also U.S.-eligible) but are known to be eligible for at least one other nation?

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GLg33ingg1f7lJjIL6PtQbYXR3HuGcK7zu8Cqfbo_P4/edit?usp=sharing

    Is there already someone else doing this better? If so, I'll gladly stand down.

    If not, how could this be improved?

    And ... if this is the best option, who would like to help?
     
  10. David Kerr

    David Kerr Member+

    United States
    Oct 18, 2019
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    That is a great format for it, I really appreciate this work! I would also potentially add in a column for assumed interest level.

    Also Bryan Okoh is a 2003.
     
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  11. Dave Marino-Nachison

    Jun 9, 1999
    Thanks for the catch on Okoh, and the feedback.

    I debated a "Which way they're leaning" column and then decided maybe that wasn't the right move because I'd rather not assume, people often tell reporters what they think the reporters want to hear, and accepting callups is a fairly objective way of looking at the question anyway.

    But I did add a second "Note" column where we might mention stuff like that if it's interesting, among other things.

    I think the most interesting use of this list may basically be just to illustrate the scope of the issue. Taken together, this is gonna be a long list when you consider guys who might move both in and out of the U.S. program over the next few years.
     
  12. Balerion

    Balerion Member+

    Aug 5, 2006
    Roslindale, MA
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I would bet good money that one of the major dual nat battles during this time frame will be over someone that is not on anyone's radar right now.

    In general, we have a pretty bad track record of predicting who relevant dual nats will be. Someone like Timmy Chandler snuck up on us because for a while he was a low-profile guy who seemed stuck in reserve teams. Meanwhile, people were losing their shit over Alex Zahavi and Fabian Hürzeler. I think the four players you chose are sensible picks and that there's evidence that can be cited to justify excitement about all of them. But I'd also venture to say that it's quite likely that half of them won't reach USMNT level in their careers. Youth prospects are tricky.
     
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  13. ussoccer97531

    ussoccer97531 Member+

    Oct 12, 2012
    Club:
    --other--
    #13 ussoccer97531, Jul 29, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 29, 2020
    I agree with @Balerion's point, but a player like Sandler probably isn't a youth prospect anymore. He's playing at a level that should put him in the USMNT pool right now.

    I think with the others, you are right that it's hard to pick exactly who will be helpful to our NT. @David Kerr mentioned some of the obvious ones, but I'd also include players like Malik Tillman ('02), Kik Pierie ('00), Maurice Malone ('00). Do Mexican dual-nationals get included into the picture? If so, players such as Efrain Alvarez ('02), Johnny Perez ('03), Santiago Munoz ('02), Alex Alcala ('05) will very likely be among the dual-national battles.

    There are also many lesser dual-nats playing for Mexico. We can't be sure who turns into a real NT level player, and who doesn't. We have to keep in mind that a number of Mexican-American dual-nationals currently in our program like Julian Araujo ('01), Ulysses Llanez ('01), Jonathan Gomez ('03), Mauricio Cuevas ('03) could turn into dual-national recruiting battles between USA and Mexico. What if an unheralded player pops up getting playing time in Mexico. That'll likely be a recruiting battle.

    What about dual-nationals for other countries currently considered safely in our set-up? Do we have to worry about if Dantouma Toure ('04) will play for Guinea? What about Moses Nyeman ('03) playing for Liberia, Elton Chifamba ('03) playing for Zimbabwe, George Bello playing for Nigeria ('02), Damian Las ('02) playing for Poland, Nati Clarke ('05) playing for Ethiopia, Gage Akalu ('05) playing for Ethiopia? It's likely all these guys play for us, if they are good enough, but chances are a few of these countries try to recruit these players (and others), and we have to do some real recruiting of non-Mexican American players in our own set-up.

    There are some dual-nationals that are probably very talented players that we don't even know are eligible for the USA. What if a player like Alejandro Iturbe is actually eligible for the USA? Then there are some players that we don't keep close track of, but could certainly put themselves on the radar. The starting keeper for Argentina at the most recent U-17 WC was US eligible. Sergio Dutra Alves ('02) has played a number of YNT games in recent years for Portugal. How can you count out a player like that? What about players like Nils Froling ('00), Timothy Tillman ('99), Julian Ryerson ('97)? We don't know how good these players will become. It's not a high bar to get into the USMNT.
     
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  14. Dave Marino-Nachison

    Jun 9, 1999
    This, generally speaking, gets at the point I'm trying to express with this thread. (Ignore the specific list I posted; it's more of a format test, and the reason there weren't many Mexican-Americans on there is I hadn't gotten around to adding them AND there are so many. That's why I asked for help! Please help!)

    My guess is that we absolutely do need to think about guys in/around the pool who may not fit the typical recent profile (roughly 1) "big nation" castoffs joining the U.S, 2) U.S. castoffs/fringe players joining other countries and 3) the US/MEX border battle) being tempted to move for one reason or another.

    We might absolutely get a "big catch" because we have a guaranteed WC spot in 2026. But we might also lose a meaningful, if not necessarily elite, guy to a country that thinks it's got a shot in the coming years and who might not be a lock for our 30-man group.

    And while we haven't seen it in a while, at some point we are probably going to lose another American born/raised player to an elite country's senior program. That'll be fun!

    I'm sure there are factors I've missed; one stretch might be increased coordination between CONCACAF and CONMEBOL. The Gold Cup doesn't hold the cachet that the Euros do, which probably holds some European players back from joining us. But more big pan-regional tournaments might make that less of an issue.
     
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  15. David Kerr

    David Kerr Member+

    United States
    Oct 18, 2019
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The USA/Mexico dual nats are the ones who I think we have the highest probability of losing them. The first four you mentioned (Efra, Johnny Perez, Santi Muñoz, and Alex Alcala) all will likely be using the USA as their backup plan as they seem to prefer Mexico. Alex Alcala’s loyalty is unknown currently so we could sway him.

    A player who I think were at high risk of defecting is Antonio Leone. Tony wasn’t happy after his last ynt camp where they benched him to evaluate the other center backs more. Tony isn’t hiding that he’s willing to accept Mexico call ups and has been in a Mexico camp most recently.

    The second group of Mexico prospects you named seem to be the exact opposite. They’re all guys that Mexico want but prefer the USA. I think as long as we don’t totally exclude them then we will en up cap tying them in the near future.

    The group of African prospects certainly could play for their native countries but I think most of them want to play for the USA first until that door is completely shut. They probably look at a few of them like we’ve been looking at Jordan Siebatcheu the last 5 years.

    Malik Tillmann could become another Siebatcheu/Balogun. He has explicitly stated numerous times now that he plays for just Germany but everyone knows how deep Germany’s program is. It will take at least 5 years to get Malik to switch over until he has no shot.
     
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  16. Dave Marino-Nachison

    Jun 9, 1999
    #16 Dave Marino-Nachison, Jul 29, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 29, 2020
    Here's an example of where we aren't maybe looking -- what about, say, Daryl Dike, an '00 with no USYNT callups that I'm aware of? Even if he's a project at this point, 2026 is a long way off. His brother Bright, whose career was hampered by injury, got onto the field for Nigeria with a fairly modest pro resume. (He scored against Italy!)

     
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  17. Dave Marino-Nachison

    Jun 9, 1999
    This is obviously not directly U.S.-related but I was reading recently about Arsenal '03 Marcelo Flores -- Canada-born, but also eligible for England and Mexico. We're not the only CONCACAF country that can recruit Europe-based prospects with multiple passports...
     
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  18. dougtee

    dougtee Member+

    Feb 7, 2007
    a few things breaking right and it doesn’t become inconceivable that canada really poses problems. would love to see them sharpen the usa while maintaining little brother status and smoke el tri
     
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  19. Dave Marino-Nachison

    Jun 9, 1999
    I'm guessing this post hasn't aged well and he's vaulted into serious MNT/YNT consideration pretty quickly, assuming we're his program of choice. But you gotta figure Nigeria has noticed his progress too...
     
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  20. KeaneO16

    KeaneO16 Member

    Manchester United
    France
    Mar 4, 2020
    I would think Nigeria is just about the sweet spot to be attractive to Dual Nationals. I'm not at all worried about Liberia or Ethiopia, because they offer basically no chance of World Cup football. Likewise I'm not worried about Germany or England, because, let's face it, not many people are going to be good enough to play for those teams. Nigeria is right in the goldilocks zone though, very good chance of WC football, very good chance of playing time. If I were a Daryl Dike level prospect, it'd be a pretty easy sell to play for Nigeria, unless I become a USMNT-lock.
     
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  21. Dave Marino-Nachison

    Jun 9, 1999
    #21 Dave Marino-Nachison, Sep 30, 2020
    Last edited: Sep 30, 2020
    Could be. In the modern era, as defined by U.S. standards, they pretty much always qualify for the World Cup, and sometimes advance. (Sound familiar?)

    Their players are pretty well-regarded worldwide, and they have some stars. The AFCON is a fairly high-profile regional tournament. In a general sense, while it might not be a slam dunk, it wouldn't be a completely irrational choice.

    With that said, barring any clear reason to think Nigeria would be his preference, one assumes U.S. Soccer plans to make him feel as welcome as possible over the next year. There are plenty of opportunities for callups and it's a position of need.
     
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  22. Dave Marino-Nachison

    Jun 9, 1999
    Just for the heck of it (I don't plan to make a habit of this) out of curiosity I searched T'Markt for players for which Mexico is given as their second nationality and who were born between 2002-2006, with those years chosen for no particular reason.

    There's apparently a Danish-Mexican '03 at Brondby and a Brazilian-Mexican '02 at Cruzeiro, to name a few non-Mexican-Americans in the database. I have no idea what kind of prospects these guys are or anything else. (I assume the Mexicans Abroad forum is all over them...) Just more data points, I guess.
     
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  23. EXALIFTIN

    EXALIFTIN Member+

    Nov 23, 2010
    Club:
    Fulham FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States


    :whistling:
     
  24. Dave Marino-Nachison

    Jun 9, 1999
    #24 Dave Marino-Nachison, Oct 9, 2020
    Last edited: Oct 9, 2020
    Not saying this is likely, but it's interesting to think about the group of players Haiti could theoretically pull together -- even just using YNT-eligible ages.

    There's Konrad; Cajuste's father is apparently Haitian/American; they've been trying to get Benji Michel for a while now; there are several young eligible players in France and elsewhere in Europe, including a few with foreign YNT experience.

    Of course, Haiti has never made it as far as the Hex... They'd probably need a lot of these balls to bounce their way to take a step forward. Would be quite the storyline. Maybe they make a big push for '26? Easy for me to say, of course.
     
  25. Sandon Mibut

    Sandon Mibut Member+

    Feb 13, 2001
    He's not a YNT but there's also Frandtzy Pierrot, who was born and raised in the US, played college soccer then signed in Belgium. He's already cap-tired to Haiti.
     

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