The reduction of your apparent argument is that only scoring goals='attack'. But if you don't create chances you can't score them. And we created plenty enough to, yes, win 4-0. Winning 1-0 in a flukey way is a better result, but wouldn't indicate that the performance is better.
But we create chances at a good level and finish them at an abysmal level. Since two components are required, having a negative opinion of our attack is perfectly reasonable.
No because elite chance creation can help abysmal chance conversion. Sorta like if you take enough shots in basketball you score enough points. Whereas if you don't take shots you score no points. If that makes sense
You guys seem to think that I don't understand how this works. What I'm saying, to extend your basketball analogy, is that our finishing quality is the equivalent of 21 foot jumpers. Arsenal finish chances poorly. It's a problem that has chronically plagued our offense. So why do we finish poorly? I don't know. I suspect that it's a combination of things. First, most of our attackers seem to be below average shooters. Second, I believe that our ExpG tallies overestimate the quality of our shots. Because we face packed in defenses, we are often shooting with defenders close to the shooter and at least one defender between the shot and the goal. No model I know of has yet taken into account the effect of defensive positioning on chance quality. I understand the stats perfectly well. I am not comforted by chance creation because we are not converting chances into goals.
It's a mess to be honest. The fixture list this season have been a mess. A lot of PL mid week matches due to FA cup matches but this time, Hull forced a replay out of us. I honestly think we should play the same team against Hull. Their fixture list is way busier than us. I highly doubt Bruce is going to play the first team against us.
yes, it's true but chances created doesn't necessarily affect the score sheet. Sure, you can increase your odds of getting laid by going to the club every night and buying lots of drinks, but if you bring your mother with you I doubt your conversion rate will be high. I just don't see many finishers in the squad to be honest. Alexis is just about at the same goals per game mark as for barca. Giroud is a little above where he was the last few seasons. Ramsey has only had two scoring Seasons despite being labeled a scoring midfielder. Theo is at his typical 2010-11 numbers. Joel and Ox are basically not contributing goals and never have. Ozil is about the same as he was at Madrid. Danny never was known as a finisher either. I think it's probably economics coupled with some bets not panning out in terms of goal production (Ox, Theo, Ramsey). XG are cheaper than RG (real goals). We might have had Suarez instead of Sanchez if we'd coughed up a few more quid a year earlier.
Fact. We have a group of average (Giroud, Alexis) to frankly mediocre ones (Theo, Ox, Joel) hence our really poor conversion rate. That is an issue that will need to be addressed, hopefully this summer.
I wouldn't be surprised if it finally is addressed this summer. AW isn't usually one to throw players under the bus (cough mourinho cough), but there have been a few games this season where he has been visibly upset with our finishing. I'm not sure i've seen that level of frustration with that aspect before. Maybe he's finally seeing the need for a real finisher and will drop some serious cash on one.
The poor finishing is definitely an issue--but I can't help but keep going back to the overall attack strategy as another part of the issue. As some have mentioned, not all chances are created equal, and the predictable attack (painfully slow build up, allow opponents to get 10 behind the ball, pass around the 18 until someone gives the ball up or takes a weak shot) isn't helping.
You're right. I guess it was those 2 chances in the 82nd min that stood out snd made it seem like more. One was gilt-edged point-blank and they should've buried it. And the other was a questionable offsides call when they had our keeper one on one.
I dunno. When has Wenger addressed obvious deficiencies in the squad? Hes like an old lady on fixed income who wins the lottery but still only buys stuff that's "on sale". Sure she drives a caddy now, but it was a dealer demo with a couple of dents she got with no money down and 0% interest. AW will not raid a club and will only buy a top player who is surplus to requirements--ozil, Alexis Cech. Also, he seems less willing to take the chance these days and find a mahrez--no attackers signed in a year. And although we have a few talents coming up, our youth setup doesn't seem include someone who will force their way into the front 4 early next season. Yes, I agree that our attack buildup is slow and I think santi coming back in will help that somewhat. No doubt going through Ramsey is far different than going through santi. However, while not showing everything, XG don't lie and the discrepancy is very large. We are wasteful. No doubt that with better finishing we'd be running away with the title. http://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2014/2/12/5404348/english-premier-league-shot-statistics Expected goals: Arsenal-51.5, Leicester-35.4, Spuds 37.9, City 44.7 Actual goals: Arsenal-41, Leicester-48, Spuds 47, City 48 Shots from close range: Arsenal-211, Leicester-134, Spuds 133, City 178 We have 35% more expected goals than spuds but 15% fewer actual goals.
Agree that w/out Santi our attack is slow and predictable. As you said though, we are still creating chances but our attackers are beyond wasteful, they are simply not that good. I, for one, have been guilty of it but we definitely tend to overate our players. Our attackers / wingers (JC, TW, Ox) are showing their limits.
Yes, but you have to understand how much luck is involved in conversion. We're way below our historical average this year, as are several of our individuals (Walcott, Alexis and Ramsey in particular). Average all shots conversion in England is something like 9.5%, and over time you can watch trends bend toward this number. We're actually over 11% in all competitions this year, so definitely above average if not quite where we have been historically. The problem, is we're way below average in just the league (somewhere under 9%), which is killing us. Which one is the 'real' Arsenal? I'd argue that neither is. It's just how it's shaking out right now.
They are off a little. Goals/shot this vs last season. Walcott 4/42 vs 5/23. Ramsey 4/60 vs 6/63. Sanchez 6/70 vs 16/121. Maybe that amounts to 8ish more goals if this season they converted at last seasons rate. Probably enough to lead the league. Is that down to luck? I don't think so since after 200+ shots from close range we are well below expected outcomes. Maybe it's a mental thing...or the fact that all those players have missed time with injury. Ramsey spent a lot of time out of position. Ramsey and Sanchez play nearly every minute when they aren't hurt. Sanchez came off a incredibly busy year and was thrown straight in. Then there is the build up we mentioned earlier...by not having good transition players we are forced to take slightly less good chances. Also, I think we've seen a lot of "greed" with players settling for good chances instead of manufacturing great chances for a team mate--Ramsey, Ox, theo and Sanchez come to mind but I've no data to back me up. I hope we see a regression toward the mean and we have a run of lethality starting Tuesday and ending when we secure the treble, but I fear it may be more deep than just a patch of rough luck.
I never rated Ox all that highly but I really kidded myself on Theo quite a bit. I really thought he'd master the art of making smart runs, seeing open space before defenders did, moving quickly and decisively off the ball, and then scoring a bunch of fairly easy one- or two-touch finishes. But it doesn't seem to be working out that way.
Yup I glanced at them today. They seem to have outstanding spirit. And Bilic seems to be one of those managers who's a cross between buddy and father-figure. The players look like they are completely on board his train.
I'm 100% with you. Ox I've already given up on, perhaps a tad too early. Theo, I used to have so much hope for, but now I've largely given up on him too. BUT part of me still wants to believe. When he scores clinically and ruthlessly like he did yesterday and when he's such a good guy in post-match interviews like he was yesterday in giving Danny so much credit... I keep saying to myself "come on Theo, prove all the doubters wrong, reach you potential and stay there". But he never quite does. Or perhaps we were just foolish to see a higher level of potential in him. Perhaps he's already reached it. And if so, that's sad.