The ACC

If you look at the top 7 in the ACC (ACC games only), they are undefeated at home (20-0-3) and 10-6-6 away. **Check my “math” as I don’t see any place that has it split out with ACC record home and away** Only ND won all away games so far (2-0). Best away wins - FSU at UNC, WF at Duke, and ND at NC State. All 6 remaining away wins are against teams lower than these.

 

Not sure if the league is down vs just really young? Teams like UNC, VA Tech and Clemson are definitely not where most thought they'd be. But then teams like Virginia, Louisville and Wake Forest I think are doing better than most imagined. But remember, the ACC was tops in non conference win percentage and wins against Power 7 foes before the conference slate started. I do still think this year's top teams are not as solid as last year's, but I'm not counting them out against the rest of the NCAA field. The lack of consistency is concerning come tourney time for sure though.

 

With ND in the driver's seat for a first-round ACC bye, Stanford at FSU on Thursday determines if Stanford puts a bit of distance between the others vying for the #2 seed, or creates a free-for-all between Stanford, UVA, FSU - and not too far behind them, WF and ... NC State. Louisville is lurking, but would likely have to win out, and a lot would have to fall their way to get to the top 2. I'd say SMU and Clemson are out of the race for the top 6, but 10 teams have a legitimate shot.

 

Stanford and ND can wrap up first-round byes for the ACC with a win this weekend - SMU at Stanford (Sat) and ND at VT (Thu), ND at WF (Sun).

It's a crazy pile of teams from 3-10. Cal is third, but after 9 games played. The next 7 teams can pass them if they win the next game or two to get to 9 games played.

All 6 games on Thursday involve at least one team in the top 10, with Louisville @ NC St, and FSU @ UVA featuring two teams in the top 10. Cal is off this weekend.

 

Will Virginia and FSU tie? Hmm. Let me embarrass myself and post my guesses for the ACC tournament.

By the end of October: Notre Dame-30, Stanford-28, Virginia-21, UNC-21, Duke-21, and FSU-18.

 

Here's what I'm projecting for the final standings based on teams' RPI ratings after the 10/19 games, the remaining schedule including game locations, teams' win/loss/tie probabilites, and the assmuption that teams perform exactly in accord with their ratings. It matches Soccerhunter except for the last slot. If the last slot matches my projection, it would be pretty shocking to a lot of people.

NotreDame 29.5
Stanford 27.1
VirginiaU 22.3
NorthCarolinaU 19.8
Duke 19.2
Louisville 18.9
CaliforniaU 16.4
FloridaState 16.3
NCState 14.9
WakeForest 14.6
Clemson 14.3
SMU 8.6
BostonCollege 5.4
Syracuse 4.2
Pittsburgh 3.5
MiamiFL 2.6
VirginiaTech 2.5

 

Well, how quickly things change.

 

ACC Tournament aside, after tonight I think NCAA locks so far are:

Stanford, Notre Dame, Virginia, FSU, Duke, Louisville, Wake Forest and UNC

The only concerning thing is that UNC only has downside on its remaining schedule. But will they really have a full meltdown to end the season?

Bubble:
Clemson, Cal, SMU, Miami, NC State

If Clemson beats Boston College, they're in for sure. Even if they lose or tie they're probably still good but they already have a bad loss to Virginia Tech around their necks. A win against Duke seals the deal.

Cal is going to be very interesting if they don't get a result against Stanford. Plenty of good ties, but no Top 50 wins. But they might end up with an RPI inside the top 50.

SMU needs to beat Stanford or Louisville and pray. Beat them both and they're in.

Miami needs to beat Virginia Tech, pray, donate money to build the new White House ballroom, and even then they're probably still cooked. But their RPI is currently just outside range of top 57 and they now have a Top 50 win after beating UNC.

A crazy scenario but.... If NC State beats UNC and Duke in their final games of the season, they make it to .500 and become NCAA eligible. They would however also make the ACC tournament, which would mean they'd have to win or tie that first game to remain above .500. Their RPI is currently in the 80s, but with those wins would they move up enough? They'd also lay claim to wins over Wake Forest and a tie with FSU. Even if they aren't in the Top 57, their resume would probably force the committee to put them in the field if they manage to accomplish all of that.

 

Stanford, Notre Dame, Virginia, FSU, Duke, Louisville, Wake Forest and UNC are in with Clemson and Cal as bubbles. Clemson can not lose to BC and Cal beating Stanford would clinch it.

No one else is getting in. SMU, Miami and NC State are not. NC State wins v SMU, Pitt and BC were fun after a brutal non-conference performance but they really just put lipstick on a pig. This Louisville, Duke, UNC stretch will normalize that.

One of the worst things about expanded ACC is the schedule. Who plays and doesn't play who. Missing six teams each is a lot but it's 2025.

 

Curious do you know how the ACC or other big conferences, decide who plays who? Is it straight RPI sorting into pods or groups or is geography a factor? is it public knowledge? Does the sorting occur with 'travel pairs" so geography is a factor somewhat?

I know of a conference that took a 2-year RPI sorting and had the odd teams and even teams create 'divisions' to play in the next 2-year cycle. So each division got a distribution of quality teams, not all the top or all the bottom teams together (as a geographic setup had been creating).

 

Is UNC for sure in no matter what happens the rest of the way?
They only have a single top 50 RPI win(vs 35)

 

No idea how P4 conferences do it.

 

It may be formalized somewhere, but based on these two years it appears:
- The six teams you don’t play in a season will be on your schedule next season
- You may have teams you play every season. Stanford appears destined to have Cal and SMU every year

 

If my recollection is correct, and it may be outdated by now, the ACC is on a five-year system (whether by written rule or otherwise), with the teams split into divisions for the next five years based on equalizing the RPI ranks over some preceding period of the two divisions as best as possible. I don't know how they decide the additional out-of-division opponents for each year, although I dimly remember it being a rotating system and not one of consistently maintaining traditional rivalries (thus UNC and Duke do not play conference-counting games against each other some years).

 

According to Chris Henderson here's where things stand heading into the final game for each team for the regular season...

Stanford and Notre Dame are vying for the Regular Season Championship on the last day. Stanford plays @ Cal and Notre Dame plays @ Pitt.

9 teams are vying for the final 4 spots in the conference tournament. They are:
Duke 18 pts; 6-3 (vs Clemson)
Louisville 17 pts.; 5-2-2 (vs SMU)
Florida State 17 pts.; 5-2-2 (vs Wake Forest)
Virginia 17 pts.; 5-2-2 (vs Boston College)
Cal 16 pts.; 4-1-4 (vs Stanford
UNC 15 pts.; 5-4 (vs NC State)
Wake Forest 15 pts.; 4-2-3 (@ Florida State)
NC State 14 pts.; 4-3-2 (@ UNC)
Clemson 14 pts.; 4-3-2 (@ Duke)

 

For the NCAA tournament, here's each team's resume so far starting with RPI ranking and Top 50 results (wins and ties only). Not doing all teams just the ones within RPI range of making it. Obviously this list will change after the final games of the season as well as after all non-conference opponents have played their conference tournaments.

1. Notre Dame (W - 47 Western Michigan, T - 19 Arkansas, W - 8 Michigan State, W - 14 Duke, W - 22 UNC, W - 23 Clemson, W - 13 Louisville, W - 9 Florida State, T - 21 Wake Forest)

2. Virginia (W - 7 West Virginia, W - 28 Xavier, W - 48 Liberty, W - 45 Charlotte, T - 15 Georgetown, W - 26 Penn State, W - 14 Duke, W - 23 Clemson, T - 50 Cal, T - 13 Louisville)

4. Stanford (W - 38 St. Mary's, T - 23 Clemson, W - 2 Virginia, W - 9 FSU)

9. Florida State (T - 12 Kansas, W - 13 Louisville, W - 22 UNC, T - 50 Cal, W - 2 Virginia)

13. Louisville (W - 29 Dayton, W - 23 Clemson, T - 21 Wake Forest, T - 2 Virginia)

14. Duke (W - 26 Penn St., W - 31 Northwestern, W - 19 Arkansas, T - 36 Alabama, W - 22 UNC)

21. Wake Forest (W - 24 LSU, W - 14 Duke, T - 13 Louisville, T - 1 Notre Dame)

22. UNC (W - 36 Alabama)

23. Clemson (T- 37 Ohio State, T - 30 South Carolina, W - 45 Charlotte, T - 40 Georgia, T - 4 Stanford, T - 50 Cal, W - 21 Wake Forest)

50. Cal (T - 41 Utah Valley, T - 23 Clemson, T - 2 Virginia, T - 9 FSU)

59. SMU (W - 50 Cal)

 

No drama really. Louisville, FSU and UVa all win at home. Cal doesn't beat Stanford.

 

I assume this scenario puts FSU as 4th (Duke wins at home and gets the 3rd seed, correct?) since FSU beat both UVA and Louisville. Gotta dig a little deeper to determine who gets the 5th seed since Louisville and UVA tied.

 

ACC getting it's players back from U-17 tournament sooner than expected. US crashed out on penalties to the Netherlands today. Bad result against an unfancied side after a promising group phase.

 

I wouldn't necessarily called the Netherlands "unfancied" - they are the 2025 U17 UEFA Euro Champions after all.

That said, the USA should have finished off the game and not let it get to PKs in the first place. They had ample opportunities.

 

Notre Dame finishes with a draw at Wake (not bad) then loses 1-0 tonight at Pitt (terrible), after opening a perfect 8-0-0 in ACC play. Stanford says thank you very much and takes the regular season crown and ACCT #1 seed after an 8-2 demolition of Cal. These two will be pretty heavy favorites to meet for the title next Sunday, despite the late ND stumble.