The ACC

I think UNC and Duke are clear 1s regardless of Sundays outcome. FSU has to have a clear win tomorrow. We’ll see what RPI does, but with an FSU loss or tie I don’t see how the committee doesn’t look at H2H and see that Wake is 2-0-1 vs FSU and Miss St. Plus another win over RPI top 10 Stanford. FSU played a weaker schedule and would only have wins over UNC and Notre Dame. Wake finished 2nd in ACC and FSU 3rd. FSU is 6 in RPI and Wake is 7. I think an easy leapfrog judgement call to make especially if the committee might already be saying USC and Arkansas, with higher RPIs, aren’t worthy.

 

You could be correct although Chris Henderson disagrees:

My guess is that with tonight's results, the four #1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament will be:

Duke
North Carolina
Mississippi State
Florida State

— Chris Henderson (@chris_awk) November 8, 2024

If FSU loses to UNC tomorrow I don't think that it would be a travesty if Wake were selected as the #1 seed over them but I do think that there is at least an equally good case for FSU to be selected over Wake.

FSU looks like the better team right now with all of their players back and acclimated to the team. If the Noles would have had their whole team for the whole season their record would probably be better than it is right now. FSU has a (slightly) better RPI.

Again, if FSU loses the committee could credibly go either way. I don't think that either team would be a lock.

 

Big respect for Krikorian, of course--but if I'm an FSU fan (and I'm not) I'd prefer Pensky. The Noles are far more attack-minded and high-scoring than they were with Krikorian, whose forté was lockdown defense and ball possession to the point of tedium. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think under him FSU went through the NCAA tournament twice without giving up a single goal. His teams were not fun to watch, generally---bring the ball into the attacking half, take it back out, bring it in, take it back out--whereas FSU has been much more entertaining (and good) the last three years. That said, I'd happily take Krikorian as coach of the team I follow!

 

Not sure UNC has a #1 locked up regardless of what happens tomorrow. UNC finished fourth in the league and with a loss tomorrow ended the season 3-4 in the last seven games.

if that happens they also finished behind FSU in the league, would not have beaten FSU (0-1-1 or 0-2) and would clearly sit behind FSU in the pecking order.

 

Chris Henderson and I, at this point, both are projecting UNC, FSU, and Duke as #1 seeds. My projection is based on a tie in the conference championship game. We each have Mississippi State as the other #1 seed.

 

In terms of the rank order of the 1 seeds, it's:

Duke
Florida State
North Carolina
Wake Forest

So a chalk semi-final would be Duke vs Wake Forest, Florida State vs North Carolina.

— Chris Henderson (@chris_awk) November 11, 2024

Logically, this seeding makes a lot of sense. I think Duke, FSU, UNC are no brainers. When looking at the criteria, Wake Forest checks all the other boxes more than Miss St., Arkansas or USC. The committee emphasizes strength of schedule every year (presumably to help make their jobs easier), and WF delivered. Doesn’t get much easier than H2H results either.

 

I would have no problem with Wake being a #1 seed but I don't think that the committee would have all four #1s from the same conference.

We'll see.

 

How is Pitt not in?!?! And Washington and Colorado somehow got in over them

 

a little surprised but not really. No good top 50 results and Cal beat them H2H.

 

LSU shockingly got in too with an RPI of 51?

 

Feels like ACC is being punished for being dominant.

 

Wow! FSU and UNC in the quarters (if each makes it that far). K-k-k…krazy as a loon!!

 

Yeah I knew Pitt was on a wing and a prayer to make it - so not surprised. Congrats to all the ACC teams that did make it - The ACC should get a couple of matchups of ACC teams. Bracket looks more favorable to a few ACC teams than others. Interesting no 1 or 2 ACC seeds in the Arkansas Miss St bracket but three total ACC teams. Guessing the ACC will make it interesting for other teams in the first 3 rounds. Good luck to all the ACC teams.

 

I am an FSU grad.

I normally don't care about how other ACC teams do in the tournament.

Not the case this year. I will be rooting for an all ACC College Cup after this bracket has been released. The league as a whole was disrespected.

 

(1) The logical, rational explanation — Florida State must have been the last #1 seed because of its struggles earlier in the season, and Carolina the highest #2 seed, so they were just slotted into place in the bracket. And the pairing probably would have been just the opposite if UNC had won the ACC championship game.

(2) The tempting other explanation — The committee is anxious to see new faces in the College Cup. Florida State and UNC have been too dominant, others need more of a chance. Thus one pairs them in the same bracket so only one can make the College Cup.

 

This is where it would be nice to have some form of communication from the NCAA.

In basketball during the selection show the chairman at least answers a few basic questions.

For soccer... (crickets).

 

If they put the #2 seeds in order, your logical explanation may the right one. If they did not put them in order, the other logical possibility is that the NCAA travel cost containment program took over and put the teams where they are so as to minimize overall Tournament travel expenses. That is what the rules call for.

I have reviewed Committee decisions in detail for years and have concluded that the Conmittee is quite consistent from year to year and follows the rules closely. It always is tempting to think "conspiracy," but I never have seen any evidence of anything like that. In other words, I do not think the Committee was trying to get non-ACC teams into the College Cup, over the years I have seen no evidence of anything like that kind of thinking from the Committee.

 

BTW: My first question to the committee chair would be...

"Why was UNC not a #1 seed?"

 

I don't believe enough people understand this.

 

But, cpthomas, if we Carolina fans accept your explanation we do not get to feel disrespected and conspired against. Where’s the fun in that?

 

Yeah, if it's not the refs conspiring against you, it's the Committee. I think I'm getting it.

 

And, if travel were that much of a consideration, wouldn’t UNC be in the same bracket as Duke rather than with Florida State? Last I checked, Durham is a lot closer than Tallahassee to Chapel Hill. For that matter, would there really be a significant travel disparity between Carolina traveling to # 1 seed Mississippi State rather than to Florida State?

 

Good question. However, you would have to be a true travel wizard to figure out exactly what full bracket setup is likely overall to produce the least travel expense. Due to something I think I saw a long time ago, I always have believed that once the Committee did its initial seeding, everything got worked over by a travel software program to come up with how to set up the bracket.

A much better system, from a fairness perspective, would be for the Committee to seed the entire bracket, as it does for basketball. This is what was done in Covid-affected 2020 when all the teams went to Cary, NC, for the Tournament.

Ordinarily for non-revenue sports, however, that is not how it works. Instead, there is an initial seeding such as the Committee does, and then the software takes over. The Committee can, however, overrule the computer if it thinks it is necessary for the integrity of the bracket.

Of course, let's remember that in 2020 Santa Clara won the Tournament. For that year, none of this packing all of the teams from the West together so that a bunch of teams with College Cup potential get eliminated in the early rounds.

 

I think the team with the biggest complaint for at least the first round should be Arkansas.

Arkansas is a 2 seed and they got Oklahoma State sent to them in the first round. OSU has an RPI of 31.

For comparison the other 2 seeds in the tournament face teams with RPI 122, 173, and 239