I think "all on" is doing a lot of work here. If one comes to the discussion assuming that Harris already inherited a hole Biden had dug and was part of a larger global rejection of incumbent parties, etc.--well then, you've acknowledged that she was walking some very thin margins and didn't have much room either for error OR to give marginal voters an excuse to sit the election out. So...if her race and gender was just enough to tip those margins the wrong way, one could argue that within the larger context her race and gender were decisive. EDIT: To be clear, I think Harris did pretty well considering how the deck was stacked.
Yeah, not a fan of the conspiracy theories floating around. Trump won the popular vote. He was the first Republican to do so since Bush in 2004, and the first Republican to be elected by winning the popular vote since Bush Sr. in 1988.
I've never seen one shred of evidence that her race and gender had any role whatsoever in her loss and frankly I doubt that it exists. The people for whom that stuff is important were never going to vote for any Democrat under any circumstance anyway.
I doubt anybody voted for Trump because he was running against a Black woman. I could believe some people who were already on the fence about voting at all finding themselves just that teeny bit less enthused to vote for her enough to stay home last November. If those people exist, I doubt they told themselves "An uppity Black Woman has no business being President". They would have channeled a certain unease or discomfort towards some other explanation, not unlike how some Trump voters told pollsters--and themselves--they were driven by "economic anxiety" or inflation or whatever. If I'm right and it was a factor on the margins, it was likely a 'first cause' rather than a consciously held reason. Dunno if that makes sense. And--I could be wrong. I'm just arguing that these things can be complicated and hard to find in the data.
IMO you’re looking at this as a white male. A white male who was bothered by her gender and/or race probably is a Republican anyway. But she did run under expectations among minority men. That’s where she lost votes, I’d guess. Did you read it? Because it was just about one state, not the whole election.
Do you know what a "mixture model" is? Because I do and you could never -- would never -- prove fraud on a large scale with precision with it.
There’s the nerd talk we crave! I need to read up on mixture model. That isn’t one you come across often, I assume, unless you are going whole-hog on stats. If I did, I quickly forgot it. OK - looked through wiki. Yeah…. That seems way too easy to manipulate. You’d need lots of consistent results to lay any stock in that method. Seems like an interesting way to tease out areas to look further into, but not rely on it alone.
A nice tool to see 2024 results at precinct level https://votehub.com/2024-map/ Some maps Interesting maps. Look at the swing of the south border. Mexico border precincts:2016: 🔵 Clinton +592024: 🔵 Harris +0.6 pic.twitter.com/1qkmVASN0L— VoteHub (@VoteHub) September 16, 2025 I did not want to admit this, but you know who could perhaps done better at the border. There were signs…. https://t.co/lUAahu2Uac pic.twitter.com/nr0FQRdi5G— Mason Pressler (@Press4BC) September 17, 2025
Harris got the same % of the white vote as Biden. She lost black and Latino voters https://balloon-juice.com/2026/02/10/multiple-things-can-be-true-at-once/
From CNN exit polls in 2020 and 2024 Among white voters: Biden 41-58 (67% of voters) Harris 42-57 (71% of voters) Among black voters: Biden 87-12 (13% of voters) Harris 86-13 (11% of voters) Among Hispanic voters: Biden 65-32 (13% of voters) Harris 51-46 (11% of voters) Among Asian voters: Biden 61-34 (4% of voters) Harris 55-40 (3% of voters) Among other ethnic groups: Biden 55-41 (4% of voters) Harris 41-55 (3% of voters) First, let's dispense with the blame on black voters. The difference between their support for Biden and Harris was not significant and certainly was not the deciding factor. Second, let's examine the big increase in the percentage of white voters. Did other groups stay home or did whites come out in force (with marginally increased support for Harris, but still more in favor of the orange racist felon)? Third, let's also focus on Hispanics, Asians and other ethnic groups. That is where the face-eating leopards are feasting.