There is one group that did not like Trump at all, old black ladies. They are smart. Per CNN exit poll for 2024Black men 18-29 🔵 Harris 77%Black men 30-44 🔵 Harris 71%Black men 45-64 🔵 Harris 76%Black men 65+ 🔵 Harris 86%Black women 18-29 🔵 Harris 86%Black women 30-44 🔵 Harris 92%Black women 45-64 🔵 Harris 91%Black women 65+ 🔵 Harris 97%— umichvoter 🏳️🌈 (@umichvoter) April 15, 2025
https://bsky.app/profile/nickvalentino.bsky.social/post/3lo5cmtqmk22g @rslfanboy remind me again: what am I looking for?
I think initially we were looking at the effect of trans-panic. Also interested if race/gender played a significant role, and which did more so. Lastly, why the “Hispanic” vote swung closer to Trump.
Remember when white evengelicals had a problem with Bill Clinton getting a blow job in the White House. Well 3 time divorced grab them by the pussy President is ok. Trump only won 41% of the non evengelical white vote. Without Evangelicals, Trump would've outright lost the white vote by massive margins in every race.He never would've even sniffed power. pic.twitter.com/1xJq4bWaVn— Hunter📈🌈📊 (@StatisticUrban) May 10, 2025
Trump brings out his base. "Turnout remained high, especially in battleground states, and especially in Republican areas. National turnout was 64% of the voter eligible population, nearly matching 2020’s historic turnout.1 In the seven major battleground states turnout was more than 70%, exceeding both the national turnout rate and the battleground state turnout rate for 2020." "According to data from the United States Election Lab compiled by University of Florida political scientist Michael McDonald, shown in Figure 1, voter turnout spiked from 60% in 2016 to 66% in 2020 – the highest voter turnout in over a century, higher than any election since women’s suffrage and the Civil Rights era. Turnout dropped to 64% in 2024, but this drop was concentrated in non-competitive states, with some battleground states exceeding their 2020 turnout."
"Democratic support has continued to erode among voters of color. Drops from 2020 to 2024 were highest among Latino voters (9 points in support), lowest among Black voters (3 points), and 4 points for Asian and Pacific Islander groups (AAPI). Support drops were 5 to 6 points among “Other” voters, a category used in election analysis that includes Native Americans, Middle Eastern and North African voters (MENA), and multiracial voters, which is often difficult to meaningfully disaggregate at the national level due to relatively low population sizes."
Not polling, but a picture of how counties have shifted in the past 3 elections. 1926659844267749786 is not a valid tweet id NEW at NYT: One of the clearest ways to see how Trump has transformed the political landscape is to look at what we're calling "triple trending" counties — those that have steadily marched in each party's direction in the Trump era.The results are stark.Thread... pic.twitter.com/of7iETWT1m— Shane Goldmacher (@ShaneGoldmacher) May 25, 2025
I know from the North Carolina map that the red arrows are all low population areas, and the blue ones seem to be Charlotte, Raleigh, Durham, and Asheville, all growing areas. (Or perhaps Raleigh and Durham are Durham and one of the Triad counties.) Maps like this that treat large counties the same as small ones are misleading. It’s like how Trump thinks Greenland is huge because of the Mercator projection.
@ceezmad has this annoying habit of posting data like this that is almost always misleading. Not sure what motivates him to do that. I just spot the flaw, and roll my eyes.
I’m quite certain he’s trolling, but it is possible that he just is incapable of digging any further.
If all the low-population counties in Wisconsin move Trump +5 and all the high-population counties move Dem +1 over this time period, Democrats lose Wisconson's 10 Electoral Votes. Ceezmad doesn't understand or care about the real issue here, but Democrats do and that's why Howard Dean's ghost is whooping back in with the 50-state strategy. We need to win 50 states, and we have to do so by telling rural and suburban voters why the Democratic party will help them. This is not as hard as it sounds: Barack Hussein Obama won rural Wisconsin like this in 2008: Wisconsin went Dem 56-42!!! Michigan was 57-41!!! These are the most lopsided wins in those states since 1988 or before. Democrats can win these places back much more easily now that Trump has destroyed the United States, we just need to have invested the time and energy in them to do so.
Unfortunately some of the biggest population countries shifted towards Trump, but not enough to win him large cities. I mean if rural Illinois shifts Trump+5 and Cook county shifts Trump+1. That is not good. To be fair, that is more about Democrats not showing up to vote for Harris. "Chicago posted its lowest voter turnout for a presidential election in nearly three decades as tens of thousands of Democrats stayed home." https://www.wbez.org/government-pol...-by-staggering-dropoff-in-votes-for-democrats
Talk about a swing district. I guess the community votes according to who the Town Rebbie endorces. New Square, New York (all-Hasidic village in Rockland County):2016: Clinton 95.3%, Trump 4.7% 🔵2020: Trump 99.7%, Biden 0.3% 🔴2024: Trump 99.6%, Harris 0.4% 🔴 pic.twitter.com/pcmoPXBl1G— Siddharth Khurana (@SidKhurana3607) May 29, 2025
According to this, right before the debate, internal polling only has Biden +2 in Virginia. Exclusive: Just got sent internal Biden polling numbers from BEFORE the June debate disaster and Jesus Christ Minnesota and Virginia were only D +2 pic.twitter.com/AL13snKGV1— Organizermemes (@OrganizerMemes) June 2, 2025
Good find. This is why I roll my eyes at the posters here who put the loss all on Harris’ race and gender. It’s not like Biden was in an unassailable position before the debate. Incumbent parties across the globe were getting crushed.
I think the argument is that she lost the 1-3% she needed due to race and gender, NOT that it was ALL due to that. At least, that's my case and how I'm reading others. She did a pretty damn great job considering how deep a hole Biden had dug for her, aside form not distancing herself from any of Biden's admin (which is a tough sell as she was a key figurehead of said admin).
Kinda. I've been listening to Sarah Longwell, and something she occasionally stresses is that people say all sorts of shit to paper over their real motivations. She has a sense when somebody is just making it up as they go vs. an actual motivation, and I think that, despite whatever the poll responses officially are, that it played (play) a bigger role than we would like to admit. The 7 swings states all had high voter participation, very close to the 2020 numbers. So I'm not certain where this all lands, but I believe that a bunch of people didn't show up because of race and gender beyond those that voted Trump for the same reasons.
An expert on voter fraud has studied the Pennsylvania results and think it was rigged by “malevolent distortions of electors’ intentions.” https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.co...in-pennsylvania-presidential-election-in-2024 https://websites.umich.edu/~wmebane/PA2024.pdf Sounds like something the Dems should investigate in 2027. Jam up as many GOPers as possible.