The 2024 "What Polling Got Wrong" thread... AND

Discussion in 'Elections' started by Dr. Wankler, Nov 4, 2024.

  1. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
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    Chicago Red Stars
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    There is one group that did not like Trump at all, old black ladies.

    They are smart.

     
  2. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
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    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  3. rslfanboy

    rslfanboy Member+

    Jul 24, 2007
    Section 26
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  4. Chesco United

    Chesco United Member+

    DC United
    Jun 24, 2001
    Chester County, PA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    Well, the Rio Grande Valley swung heavily to Trump.
     
  5. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
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    Chicago Red Stars
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    United States
    Remember when white evengelicals had a problem with Bill Clinton getting a blow job in the White House.


    Well 3 time divorced grab them by the pussy President is ok.

    Trump only won 41% of the non evengelical white vote.

     
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  6. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
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    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  7. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
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    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #32 ceezmad, May 20, 2025
    Last edited: May 20, 2025
    Trump brings out his base.


    "Turnout remained high, especially in battleground states, and especially in Republican areas. National turnout was 64% of the voter eligible population, nearly matching 2020’s historic turnout.1 In the seven major battleground states turnout was more than 70%, exceeding both the national turnout rate and the battleground state turnout rate for 2020."





    "According to data from the United States Election Lab compiled by University of Florida political scientist Michael McDonald, shown in Figure 1, voter turnout spiked from 60% in 2016 to 66% in 2020 – the highest voter turnout in over a century, higher than any election since women’s suffrage and the Civil Rights era. Turnout dropped to 64% in 2024, but this drop was concentrated in non-competitive states, with some battleground states exceeding their 2020 turnout."
     
  8. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
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    Chicago Red Stars
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    United States
    "Democratic support has continued to erode among voters of color. Drops from 2020 to 2024 were highest among Latino voters (9 points in support), lowest among Black voters (3 points), and 4 points for Asian and Pacific Islander groups (AAPI). Support drops were 5 to 6 points among “Other” voters, a category used in election analysis that includes Native Americans, Middle Eastern and North African voters (MENA), and multiracial voters, which is often difficult to meaningfully disaggregate at the national level due to relatively low population sizes."
     
  9. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
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    Chicago Red Stars
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    United States
    #34 ceezmad, May 25, 2025
    Last edited: May 25, 2025
    Not polling, but a picture of how counties have shifted in the past 3 elections.


    1926659844267749786 is not a valid tweet id


     
  10. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
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    DC United
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    I know from the North Carolina map that the red arrows are all low population areas, and the blue ones seem to be Charlotte, Raleigh, Durham, and Asheville, all growing areas. (Or perhaps Raleigh and Durham are Durham and one of the Triad counties.)

    Maps like this that treat large counties the same as small ones are misleading. It’s like how Trump thinks Greenland is huge because of the Mercator projection.
     
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  11. Dr. Wankler

    Dr. Wankler Member+

    May 2, 2001
    The Electric City
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Definitely generates clicks, though.
     
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  12. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
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    @ceezmad has this annoying habit of posting data like this that is almost always misleading. Not sure what motivates him to do that. I just spot the flaw, and roll my eyes.
     
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  13. rslfanboy

    rslfanboy Member+

    Jul 24, 2007
    Section 26
    I’m quite certain he’s trolling, but it is possible that he just is incapable of digging any further.
     
  14. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    If all the low-population counties in Wisconsin move Trump +5 and all the high-population counties move Dem +1 over this time period, Democrats lose Wisconson's 10 Electoral Votes.

    Ceezmad doesn't understand or care about the real issue here, but Democrats do and that's why Howard Dean's ghost is whooping back in with the 50-state strategy.

    We need to win 50 states, and we have to do so by telling rural and suburban voters why the Democratic party will help them.

    This is not as hard as it sounds: Barack Hussein Obama won rural Wisconsin like this in 2008:

    upload_2025-5-25_23-1-52.png

    Wisconsin went Dem 56-42!!! Michigan was 57-41!!! These are the most lopsided wins in those states since 1988 or before. Democrats can win these places back much more easily now that Trump has destroyed the United States, we just need to have invested the time and energy in them to do so.
     
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  15. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
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    United States
    The new York times pays me to post their propaganda.
     
  16. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Unfortunately some of the biggest population countries shifted towards Trump, but not enough to win him large cities.

    I mean if rural Illinois shifts Trump+5 and Cook county shifts Trump+1.

    That is not good.

    To be fair, that is more about Democrats not showing up to vote for Harris.

    "Chicago posted its lowest voter turnout for a presidential election in nearly three decades as tens of thousands of Democrats stayed home."

    https://www.wbez.org/government-pol...-by-staggering-dropoff-in-votes-for-democrats
     
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  17. charlie15

    charlie15 Member+

    Mar 9, 2000
    Bethesda, Md
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    Arsenal FC
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    I noticed this as well......
     
  18. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Talk about a swing district.

    I guess the community votes according to who the Town Rebbie endorces.


     
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  19. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
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    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    According to this, right before the debate, internal polling only has Biden +2 in Virginia.

     
  20. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Good find.

    This is why I roll my eyes at the posters here who put the loss all on Harris’ race and gender. It’s not like Biden was in an unassailable position before the debate. Incumbent parties across the globe were getting crushed.
     
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  21. rslfanboy

    rslfanboy Member+

    Jul 24, 2007
    Section 26
    I think the argument is that she lost the 1-3% she needed due to race and gender, NOT that it was ALL due to that. At least, that's my case and how I'm reading others. She did a pretty damn great job considering how deep a hole Biden had dug for her, aside form not distancing herself from any of Biden's admin (which is a tough sell as she was a key figurehead of said admin).
     
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  22. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
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    DC United
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    United States
    Fair, except to me it’s pretty clear the 1 is a whole lot more accurate than the 3.
     
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  23. rslfanboy

    rslfanboy Member+

    Jul 24, 2007
    Section 26
    Kinda. I've been listening to Sarah Longwell, and something she occasionally stresses is that people say all sorts of shit to paper over their real motivations. She has a sense when somebody is just making it up as they go vs. an actual motivation, and I think that, despite whatever the poll responses officially are, that it played (play) a bigger role than we would like to admit.

    The 7 swings states all had high voter participation, very close to the 2020 numbers. So I'm not certain where this all lands, but I believe that a bunch of people didn't show up because of race and gender beyond those that voted Trump for the same reasons.
     
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