Last year's thread is here: https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/the-2023-table-magic-numbers-tragic-numbers-toast.2127188/ As always, I'm just filling the gap here, if anyone would like to take over this year, I will happily yield. Breaking News: San Jose is, in fact, toast: KEY: MP= Matches played MR=Matches remaining MAX=Maximum attainable points MAG#=Number of points needed to clinch a playoff spot TRG#=Tragic number: # of points dropped to be eliminated from playoff slot AD# = Actual Despair # CD# = Calculated Despair #
MIA becomes first team to clinch playoff spot. SKC saves themselves from the toaster with a win, but the draw by STL was not enough to save them. The Revs jump from tied-for-last in the East to above the line (based on Points per Match, with Wins the first tie-breaker).
SKC achieves toast status this week. The bottom 8 in the East are such a mess, I don't think any of them will be toasted for a while, as they spread the toaster warmth amongst themselves.
Bummer. I NEED more toast, although SKC getting toasted early AGAIN is quite delicious. Looks like both CLB and CIN could clinch this week, if CLB beats SEA and the CIN beats CLB. If LAG win the classico against LAFC, they clinch too.
Even if the Revs aren't technically, legally or officially "toast," the Fat Lady is warming up her throat. When you can't beat crappy teams like St. Louis at home, with long stretches of being dominated, there's not much hope. In theory, if they won their remaining home games (a reasonable ask) and found a way to take some points on the road, the playoffs were possible. But ending the season away to Columbus and Miami, if they don't have a playoff spot clinched, it's going to be tough...
To those of us whose teams are already toast, our teams will need to crunch some numbers, spend some dough, and hope for butter luck next season. At yeast we have that hope.
What a rye post. So many puns, you barley left any crumbs for the rest of us. That's okay, as we will rise to the challenge as we knead to contribute.
Andrew Wiebe toasted both Chicago and Nashville in an article at MLSSoccer.com today. And the only reason he didn't toast Montreal was due to their schedule. https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/handicapping-the-audi-mls-cup-playoffs-race-who-will-make-it
For those that are wondering, the (my) official Toast threshold is an AD# of 2.5. AD# is Actual Despair number, which is determined by calculating the number of points per game for the rest of the season that team would need in order to equal the projected point total of the current 9th place team. For example, MIN is currently 9th in the West. They have 36 pts with 7 matches remaining, so they project to finish with 45 pts. San Jose currently has 17 pts, so they would need 28 more to equal 45. Take 28 pts spread over their remaining 7 games is 4.00 PPG (which is impossible), thus their AD# is 4.00.
CD# is Calculated despair number, similar to AD#, but based on 60th percentile of projected points (as 60 percent of teams make the playoffs).
The Eastern Conference unplugged the toaster, as bottom-dwellers NSH, MON and CHI all won, making a tight race even tighter. No toast for you! CIN, CLB and LAG all clinch playoff spots, while SJE are officially eliminated.
We made it a bit harder by winning on Saturday, but the Spoon is still technically within grasping distance for the Chicago Fire. We would need San Jose to suck quite a bit less, but hopelessness springs eternal.
They would have to average 1.5ppg and Chicago lose out. Crazier things have happened, haven’t they? Haven’t they?