I think for many Latinos it is not always about political party or issues, but often is a popularity contest. Latinos will come out to vote if they like the candidate. Going back to the 90's, Bill and Hillary Clinton, as well as Barack Obama, were very popular with many Latinos, and not surprisingly did better than average among Latinos, while Gore, Kerry and Biden didn't do as well.
This study sounds interesting, I may have to read to see if the tweet is spot on or hyperbolic. Third way is a centrist democrat PAC Latino victory fund PAC call's it self progressive, but I do not know. The collective PAC is African American, I do not know if they are centrist or progressive. "The political autopsy, co-authored by Third Way, the Collective PAC, and the Latino Victory Fund, suggests that white progressive activists pushing a left-wing agenda on the party were blind to the ideological diversity within nonwhite communities."https://t.co/pES5X66Dv5— Josh Kraushaar (@JoshKraushaar) June 13, 2021 Here is the study if you can't see the tweet. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/06/06/us/politics/2020-postelection-analysis.html Even if the article is paywalled, you can still download the pdf
Insights like this. . . The report blames Democratic organizations for treating nonwhite voters as a unified bloc that just needs to be mobilized for the party to benefit. The reality is there are plenty of persuadable voters of all backgrounds who don’t appreciate being treated like a like-minded monolith. . . .really should be published in journals like Duh: The Quarterly Review of the Blatantly Obvious. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem obvious to the people who are described in this earlier paragraph: “Folks who purport to speak for the vast communities of color across the country are speaking for one portion of them, usually highly educated urban elites or super-online activists. Those people don’t necessarily represent the views of Latino men who work in the oil fields, for instance,” Third Way senior vice president Lanae Erickson, who worked on the report, told National Journal. “What we have done is conflate urban white liberal views with the views of people of color—and allowed them to speak for those people of color.” I mean, the "Demography is destiny" idea is one of the stupidest things infecting the Democratic party right now... quite possibly even dumber than the College is For Everybody commitment.
Another breakdown on what happened in Florida. Ignoring baseline partisanship and going solely by race and education-based splits, Democrats performed about 8% below expected in Florida in 2020.The struggles with the Cuban community are well-documented, but they also perform *way* worse than expected among college whites. pic.twitter.com/z443VmU99T— Lakshya Jain (@lxeagle17) July 17, 2021
Here's what NBC's polling is changing going forward: https://t.co/zjjWkYu65k pic.twitter.com/NNf4icq00o— Ariel Edwards-Levy (@aedwardslevy) July 28, 2021
I think we have to assume that when a Trump is on the presidential ballot, things are gonna be wonky.
Good map, bad map, irrelevant? Is Biden the highest democratic vote getter ever in every state? — So this is interesting: other than Rhode Island, the states where Biden 2020 wasn't the Dem nominee who got the most votes are all contiguous https://t.co/gojFAoyioB pic.twitter.com/qaqG11QczZ— J. Miles Coleman (@JMilesColeman) March 4, 2022
its more indicative of regional electoral shifts and the relative importance of different states to get to 270 than anything else. The Midwest is skewing older, whiter and more “traditional”. The “New South” and SunBelt diversifying and gaining importance. Obama was definitely a Midwest phenom in 2008. The conservative southern states having higher Dem support pre 2000 isn’t surprising either.
Democrats may be losing the Hispanic vote advantage. Hispanics approval rating is the lowest among the big 3 ethnic groups. National Release – April 13, 2022 (qu.edu) This poll may be a bad one (hopefully) small sample size and large margin of error. From the wall street journal. https://thehill.com/homenews/campai...-evenly-split-between-democrats-gop-wsj-poll/ 2 possible reasons on the 2020 analysis. The economy and no party loyalty from recent arrivals. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/have-latinos-really-moved-toward-the-republican-party/ Latinos tend to be less educated and have less income than the average Americans, so perhaps Latinos are shifting the same way that less educated whites have been shifting in the past few elections. Edit: the story is originally from the Washington examiner, they have a right wing media bias. so it may be an article on wishful thinking, we will see. https://gazette.com/news/us-world/d...cle_81ff97eb-c663-5a14-91de-56709ceac3f4.html
I was checking twitter and "2000 mules" is trending in the MAGAverse. 2Km is a film by D'ouchez D'Suckza, that claims that people was stuffing drop boxes in all the places where Biden won by small margins, like GA, PA or AZ. In the QAnon minds there's no doubt that there was fraud and Trump won in 2020. The 2000 Mules movie proves nothing. It assumes all drop off ballots are “fraudulent” votes for Biden. That’s quite a leap. Even the numbers are assumptions.Besides, if efforts to help people vote causes you to lose then your ideas are bad. pic.twitter.com/8pC3evyA6J— PatriotTakes 🇺🇸 (@patriottakes) May 8, 2022 1523345567383900161 is not a valid tweet id Since I didn't have the guts to watch even 2 minutes of the film (and I assume you won't either), here is the Fact Check so you are aware when "debating" MAGAe: https://www.denverpost.com/2022/05/08/2000-mules-fact-check/
I just got a text from ADG Research. Looks like they are American Directions Research Group. I have never heard of them, and the internet has not been much help. Does anybody have any info about them?
The denver post article is a great example of framing fail 'Conservative filmmaker' = conspiracy theorist and felon.
I did some digging. They seem to be more B2B corporate polling. I saw some of the bios of at least current claimed employees and most of them have backgrounds in telemarketing stuff who are now supposedly directors of such and such. One person from Ipsos. A CFO c2018 that I couldn’t find anywhere since then.
I got a text from PRH asking if I agree with 60% of Wisconsinites who agree that abortion should be legal. Who is PRH? I can't find anything.
Wouldn’t be surprising for the number to come from DC. Or the number could be spoofed to make it look like a DC number. Amusing side story about number spoofing. I get spoofed numbers that are roughly the same vintage as mobile numbers being released around the time I got a mobile in Chicago. Example: I have a lot of friends with 312-399-xxxx numbers. I get all sorts of 312-399 calls from telemarketers. A few months back. I was sitting on the sofa with my wife when she got a call from “me”. It was a spoofed call with a Chicago area code + 3 digits that were commonly issued when she got her mobile. Those happened to be mine. And as luck would have it, the last 4 digits were mine too. So it popped up as call from “me”. She looks over at me and asks, “Why are you calling me?” I hold up my phone and show her I’m not calling. We started a ruse where I questioned them in the abduction and kidnapping of the call recipient’s husband. He went missing 72 hours earlier and they were calling from his number. Kinda fun.
Oh, I'm on some list in Arizona that gets passed around. Both via calls and texts. Funny thing is somehow my mobile account got hacked and my name got changed. And apparently I had a successful sex change as well. Little did I know. But I get occasional messages from Memphis. But never from DC.
Next: research-polls.com. Been in business 6 months. Business address, you ask? 508 Hendricks Isle APT 8 Fort Lauderdale, Florida 33301 United States That's right. Apartment 8.
It is located in the "Casa Grande" Apartment building, so it must be totally legit. They don't let just anyone in Casa Grande! By the way, they are "vacation rentals."
Seems relevant: Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton straight out told Steve Bannon that he stole the Texas 2020 for Donald Trump when Biden would have won.He “stopped 2.5M mail-in ballots” in 2020.**Biden would have won Texas**How are either one of them walking free? pic.twitter.com/HFM5U67kO1— BigBlueWaveUSA® 🇺🇸🌊🇺🇦 (@BigBlueWaveUSA) November 13, 2023
Because what he did was legal under Texas law. Voter suppression yes, but not illegal. https://www.politifact.com/factchec...ched-texas-attorney-general-ken-paxton-didnt/