Post-match: The 2020 "What Polling Got Wrong" Thread...

Discussion in 'Elections' started by Dr. Wankler, Nov 2, 2020.

  1. argentine soccer fan

    Staff Member

    Jan 18, 2001
    San Francisco Bay Area
    Club:
    CA Boca Juniors
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    I think for many Latinos it is not always about political party or issues, but often is a popularity contest. Latinos will come out to vote if they like the candidate. Going back to the 90's, Bill and Hillary Clinton, as well as Barack Obama, were very popular with many Latinos, and not surprisingly did better than average among Latinos, while Gore, Kerry and Biden didn't do as well.
     
    American Brummie repped this.
  2. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #177 ceezmad, Jun 14, 2021
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2021
    This study sounds interesting, I may have to read to see if the tweet is spot on or hyperbolic.

    Third way is a centrist democrat PAC

    Latino victory fund PAC call's it self progressive, but I do not know.

    The collective PAC is African American, I do not know if they are centrist or progressive.




    Here is the study if you can't see the tweet.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/06/06/us/politics/2020-postelection-analysis.html


    Even if the article is paywalled, you can still download the pdf
     
    Dr. Wankler, ChrisSSBB and EvanJ repped this.
  3. Dr. Wankler

    Dr. Wankler Member+

    May 2, 2001
    The Electric City
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Insights like this. . .
    The report blames Democratic organizations for treating nonwhite voters as a unified bloc that just needs to be mobilized for the party to benefit. The reality is there are plenty of persuadable voters of all backgrounds who don’t appreciate being treated like a like-minded monolith.​


    . . .really should be published in journals like Duh: The Quarterly Review of the Blatantly Obvious.

    Unfortunately, it doesn't seem obvious to the people who are described in this earlier paragraph:

    “Folks who purport to speak for the vast communities of color across the country are speaking for one portion of them, usually highly educated urban elites or super-online activists. Those people don’t necessarily represent the views of Latino men who work in the oil fields, for instance,” Third Way senior vice president Lanae Erickson, who worked on the report, told National Journal. “What we have done is conflate urban white liberal views with the views of people of color—and allowed them to speak for those people of color.”​


    I mean, the "Demography is destiny" idea is one of the stupidest things infecting the Democratic party right now... quite possibly even dumber than the College is For Everybody commitment.
     
  4. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Another breakdown on what happened in Florida.

     
  5. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  6. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  7. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I think we have to assume that when a Trump is on the presidential ballot, things are gonna be wonky.
     
    Chesco United repped this.
  8. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Good map, bad map, irrelevant?

     
  9. Chicago76

    Chicago76 Member+

    Jun 9, 2002
    its more indicative of regional electoral shifts and the relative importance of different states to get to 270 than anything else. The Midwest is skewing older, whiter and more “traditional”. The “New South” and SunBelt diversifying and gaining importance.

    Obama was definitely a Midwest phenom in 2008. The conservative southern states having higher Dem support pre 2000 isn’t surprising either.
     
    superdave and xtomx repped this.
  10. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Democrats may be losing the Hispanic vote advantage.

    Hispanics approval rating is the lowest among the big 3 ethnic groups.

    upload_2022-4-19_11-8-41.png

    National Release – April 13, 2022 (qu.edu)


    This poll may be a bad one (hopefully) small sample size and large margin of error.

    From the wall street journal.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campai...-evenly-split-between-democrats-gop-wsj-poll/


    2 possible reasons on the 2020 analysis.

    The economy and no party loyalty from recent arrivals.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/have-latinos-really-moved-toward-the-republican-party/


    Latinos tend to be less educated and have less income than the average Americans, so perhaps Latinos are shifting the same way that less educated whites have been shifting in the past few elections.

    Edit: the story is originally from the Washington examiner, they have a right wing media bias.

    so it may be an article on wishful thinking, we will see.

    https://gazette.com/news/us-world/d...cle_81ff97eb-c663-5a14-91de-56709ceac3f4.html
     
  11. charlie15

    charlie15 Member+

    Mar 9, 2000
    Bethesda, Md
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    This is a very small sample though. Hard to give much stock to it.
     
    xtomx repped this.
  12. dapip

    dapip Member+

    Sep 5, 2003
    South Florida
    Club:
    Millonarios Bogota
    Nat'l Team:
    Colombia
    I was checking twitter and "2000 mules" is trending in the MAGAverse. 2Km is a film by D'ouchez D'Suckza, that claims that people was stuffing drop boxes in all the places where Biden won by small margins, like GA, PA or AZ. In the QAnon minds there's no doubt that there was fraud and Trump won in 2020.



    1523345567383900161 is not a valid tweet id


    Since I didn't have the guts to watch even 2 minutes of the film (and I assume you won't either), here is the Fact Check so you are aware when "debating" MAGAe:

    https://www.denverpost.com/2022/05/08/2000-mules-fact-check/
     
    soccernutter repped this.
  13. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Tottenham Hotspur
    Aug 22, 2001
    Near the mountains.
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I just got a text from ADG Research. Looks like they are American Directions Research Group. I have never heard of them, and the internet has not been much help. Does anybody have any info about them?
     
  14. The Jitty Slitter

    The Jitty Slitter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Bayern München
    Germany
    Jul 23, 2004
    Fascist Hellscape
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    Belgium
    The denver post article is a great example of framing fail

    'Conservative filmmaker' = conspiracy theorist and felon.
     
    bigredfutbol repped this.
  15. Chicago76

    Chicago76 Member+

    Jun 9, 2002

    I did some digging. They seem to be more B2B corporate polling. I saw some of the bios of at least current claimed employees and most of them have backgrounds in telemarketing stuff who are now supposedly directors of such and such. One person from Ipsos. A CFO c2018 that I couldn’t find anywhere since then.
     
    soccernutter repped this.
  16. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Tottenham Hotspur
    Aug 22, 2001
    Near the mountains.
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I got a text from PRH asking if I agree with 60% of Wisconsinites who agree that abortion should be legal.

    Who is PRH? I can't find anything.
     
    xtomx repped this.
  17. xtomx

    xtomx Member+

    Chicago Fire
    Sep 6, 2001
    Northern Wisconsin, but not far from civilization
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Physicians for Reproductive Health?!?

    https://prh.org/mission-and-history/
     
    soccernutter repped this.
  18. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Tottenham Hotspur
    Aug 22, 2001
    Near the mountains.
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  19. Chicago76

    Chicago76 Member+

    Jun 9, 2002
    Wouldn’t be surprising for the number to come from DC. Or the number could be spoofed to make it look like a DC number.

    Amusing side story about number spoofing. I get spoofed numbers that are roughly the same vintage as mobile numbers being released around the time I got a mobile in Chicago. Example: I have a lot of friends with 312-399-xxxx numbers. I get all sorts of 312-399 calls from telemarketers.

    A few months back. I was sitting on the sofa with my wife when she got a call from “me”. It was a spoofed call with a Chicago area code + 3 digits that were commonly issued when she got her mobile. Those happened to be mine. And as luck would have it, the last 4 digits were mine too. So it popped up as call from “me”. She looks over at me and asks, “Why are you calling me?” I hold up my phone and show her I’m not calling. We started a ruse where I questioned them in the abduction and kidnapping of the call recipient’s husband. He went missing 72 hours earlier and they were calling from his number. Kinda fun.
     
  20. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Tottenham Hotspur
    Aug 22, 2001
    Near the mountains.
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Oh, I'm on some list in Arizona that gets passed around. Both via calls and texts. Funny thing is somehow my mobile account got hacked and my name got changed. And apparently I had a successful sex change as well. Little did I know. But I get occasional messages from Memphis. But never from DC.
     
  21. soccernutter

    soccernutter Moderator
    Staff Member

    Tottenham Hotspur
    Aug 22, 2001
    Near the mountains.
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #196 soccernutter, Aug 21, 2022
    Last edited: Aug 21, 2022
    Next:

    research-polls.com.

    Been in business 6 months. Business address, you ask?

    508 Hendricks Isle APT 8

    Fort Lauderdale, Florida 33301

    United States​

    That's right. Apartment 8.
     
    bigredfutbol, xtomx and Dr. Wankler repped this.
  22. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Sounds legit to me!
     
    xtomx and soccernutter repped this.
  23. xtomx

    xtomx Member+

    Chicago Fire
    Sep 6, 2001
    Northern Wisconsin, but not far from civilization
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    It is located in the "Casa Grande" Apartment building, so it must be totally legit.
    They don't let just anyone in Casa Grande!

    By the way, they are "vacation rentals."
     
  24. dapip

    dapip Member+

    Sep 5, 2003
    South Florida
    Club:
    Millonarios Bogota
    Nat'l Team:
    Colombia
    Seems relevant:

     
    bigredfutbol repped this.
  25. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Because what he did was legal under Texas law. Voter suppression yes, but not illegal.

    https://www.politifact.com/factchec...ched-texas-attorney-general-ken-paxton-didnt/
     
    bigredfutbol and superdave repped this.

Share This Page