Give us your 2020. General elections prediction: - Who will win the Presidency - EV & Vote % - Total turnout - Senate results - House results - Other predictions and surprises (state houses etc). PS. Per @American Brummie suggestion, let's make it more fun by adding the 270towin map to our predictions.
I'm old enough to remember President Muskie. I'm the guy who came onto this board on election day 2004, reviewed all the media reports of super long lines at polling places in the cities, and declared game over, Democratic Victory. And of course we all remember in 2016 the New York Times reviewing all the poll results and declaring that the chances of Trump winning were the same as the chances of an NFL placekicker missing a 47 yard field goal. It ain't over 'till it's over. Doo Doo happens. The best laid plans of mice and men. I'll believe it when I see it.
Since nobody wants to jump in, here are mine: President - Biden - 393 EVs - 53%/43%. - 155 M votes - Senate 53D/ 47 R https://www.270towin.com/maps/XN4zx
I'm a little less optimistic but I think that we can get 312 votes with ease and possibly two of four (GA, FL, OH, TX), meaning up to 357+. - 312 EVs - 53%/45% 2%. - 150 M votes - Senate 52D/ 48 R
Dems keep a sizable majority in The House. They pick up senate seats in Maine, Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, and North Carolina, but lose Alabama Popular vote goes 52-46
I'm all-in. 413, baby: 51 Dem senators + both Georgia seats going to a run-off: In the House the Dems go over 245, with Collin Peterson, Max Rose & TJ Cox the only incumbents to lose. We flip both houses in Arizona and North Carolina, the House in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Iowa and Texas, and break the supermajority in Kansas. We flip the senate in Minnesota and go 50/50 (ostensibly a flip) in Pennsylvania.
And for shits and giggles. House will be 240 (D) to 186 (R) 155.001 mil votes. Texas state house will flip.
He's doing one of those maps that judge by land area of counties won-cities and metro areas don't really count.
We are all so fascinated by your turnout numbers we did not pay attention to the EC's. So you don't think Biden will win Fl....I have to say that Fl give me some trepidations too. I feel more confident about Ga for that matter.
I'm predicting that Donald Trump will end up getting 232 Electoral Votes, the precise number of votes of his defeated rival in 2016.
I can't make my mind up which of these is more likely, so I'm making two predictions. Don't like it? Ask for your money back. Prediction #1: Trump wins, and the U.S. dies over the next four years. Prediction #2: On election night, as votes drawn from voting at polling places are reported in news coverage, Trump appears to be on course for victory, and makes triumphant public statements. In the two weeks afterwards, as early votes/votes-by-mail are tabulated and added to states' totals, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and North Carolina swing to Biden, and Biden wins. In response to his change in fortunes, Donald Trump proclaims that the whole thing is rigged like he always does, the Trumpanzees go nuts, the guns come out, social chaos ensues, and the U.S. dies over the next few months. I don't know which one I think is more likely.
I can help: we will know the full results from North Carolina fairly quickly as they have already started counting votes from absentees and mail-ins. The late vote will not be large enough to tip the margin unless the election is Florida-2000 close, in which case Biden will be sufficiently ahead in Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin that it shouldn't matter.