The 2018 Table :: Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Curious Quantities

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by Knave, Aug 13, 2018.

  1. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    The toast that can be toasted is not the eternal Toast. (The Tao of Toast)
     
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  2. nlsanand

    nlsanand Member+

    May 31, 2007
    Toronto
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    Because of TFCs playoffgate in 2016 with MLS, I think it's important that this stuff be done correctly. But I got no idea how you approach it mathematically.
     
  3. Sounders78

    Sounders78 Member+

    Apr 20, 2009
    Olympia
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    France
    Is Toast Jesus toast?
     
  4. El Naranja

    El Naranja Member+

    Sep 5, 2006
    Alief
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I will slaughter an entire field of grain in Toast Jesus' name to aid you in your quest.
     
  5. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Whatsoever is, is in Toast, and without Toast nothing can be, or be conceived. (Ethica Toastica)
     
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  6. SierraSpartan

    SierraSpartan Member+

    Jan 25, 2007
    Placer County, CA
    Club:
    Sacramento Republic FC
    "I am the Lazarakia and the Toast. Anyone who believes in me will live, even after elimination." (Sunbeam 11:25)
     
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  7. Yoshou

    Yoshou Fan of the CCL Champ

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    He who becomes unToasted, shall become Lazarakia, yet even then, he shall still be Toast.
     
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  8. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    We cite our scripture on the Toast Thread.
     
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  9. SoccerMan94043

    SoccerMan94043 Member+

    May 29, 2003
    San Jose
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    So it was preordained that there will be no relegation. Perhaps that religious war can stop now.
     
  10. Kejsare

    Kejsare Member+

    Portland Timbers
    Mar 10, 2010
    Virginia
    Club:
    Portland Timbers
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    BalanceUT repped this.
  11. ManiacalClown

    ManiacalClown Member+

    Jun 27, 2003
    South Jersey
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Ives is stealing your thunder:

     
  12. jaykoz3

    jaykoz3 Member+

    Dec 25, 2010
    Conshohocken, PA
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Someone should tell him that there is something really wrong in San Jose.............no need to wait until the off season to make that determination......

    Ives is still relevant?
     
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  13. ManiacalClown

    ManiacalClown Member+

    Jun 27, 2003
    South Jersey
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    lol absolutely not
     
  14. Guardien

    Guardien Member

    Oct 7, 2013
    Alpharetta, Georgia
    Club:
    Union Berlin
    Who is this false prophet? There is no Toast, but Toast, and Toast Jesus is his name!

    He should be toasted at the stake for his heresy.
     
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  15. GreatGonzo

    GreatGonzo Member+

    Jul 1, 1999
    MA
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Hence the "not worth the time and effort." :) Doing this programmatically would take a good amount of time, especially if you add in all the tiebreakers. The initial process just on points is fairly straightforward though if you've got the standings and the list of remaining games. If we're looking to see if a team has been mathematically eliminated from making the playoffs, and take Chicago as our example (you'll see why them and not San Jose in a second).

    1) Assume Chicago wins the rest of their games. That puts them at 47 points. So you only need to find one situation where Chicago finishes ahead of five other EC teams to say if they're still alive.
    2) Ignore all WC vs WC games.
    3) Assume all WC vs EC games are won by the WC team.
    4) Atlanta, NYRB, and NYCFC are currently ahead of / tied at 47 points, so assume they win the rest of their games. (This is why it's harder to use San Jose initially, no team in the West is ahead of their MPP).
    5) At this point, look at the MPPs of the remaining teams - if five are below 47, Chicago is still alive and you can exit. If fewer than five are below 47, take any team that is below that number (like Orlando would be in this case, assuming they lose to WC teams and to Atlanta / NYRB) and assume they win the rest of their games. They can't surpass 47 and this will lower the MPP of other EC teams. Loop this step until you either have five teams below 47 MPP or fewer than five teams below 47 MPP and you've already processed their games.
    6) This is where it starts getting challenging to do mathematically. I'd start by assuming that every remaining game ends in a tie and hope that Chicago is still alive at that point. If that eliminates Chicago, then you have to start looking at games to see if certain ones will get a team below 47 MPP or above 47 actual points, then go through the "assume all wins" again, then more tests... yeah, it gets real messy at this point, especially with this many games left in the season.

    You'd do something similar with looking to see if a team has mathematically clinched, just flip who wins / loses.

    Or you could just go with toast.
     
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  16. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    This seems easier.
     
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  17. firefan2001

    firefan2001 Member+

    Dec 27, 2000
    Oswego, Illinois
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Thanks I needed a good laugh.
     
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  18. ManiacalClown

    ManiacalClown Member+

    Jun 27, 2003
    South Jersey
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Even funnier would be "Assume Chicago wins any of their remaining games."
     
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  19. firefan2001

    firefan2001 Member+

    Dec 27, 2000
    Oswego, Illinois
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I was thinking only two wins in our last 8 games (Orlando and DC), but if Pauno finishes out the entire season I could see us ending the year with a 16 game losing streak.
     
  20. ManiacalClown

    ManiacalClown Member+

    Jun 27, 2003
    South Jersey
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    If anyone manages to lose to Orlando at home...
     
  21. jaykoz3

    jaykoz3 Member+

    Dec 25, 2010
    Conshohocken, PA
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    After nearly a month off at that..............
     
  22. Guardien

    Guardien Member

    Oct 7, 2013
    Alpharetta, Georgia
    Club:
    Union Berlin
    Chicago ain't beating the DC team I just watched...
     
  23. BalanceUT

    BalanceUT RSL and THFC!

    Oct 8, 2006
    Appalachia
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    And, toast tastes good.
     
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  24. BalanceUT

    BalanceUT RSL and THFC!

    Oct 8, 2006
    Appalachia
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    And now, time for our annual hymn.
     
  25. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    "Let toast be for those who are perishing, burnt toast for those who are in anguish."
    (The Book of Breville, 31:6)

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    Notes


    Though nobody cares, let us note for the record that SJE is officially burnt toast. They might as well forfeit their remaining 11 (!) games to preserve what little remains of their dignity.

    In the WC, MIN and HOU are now toast. As they were on the verge of toast last week, this was pretty much inevitable.

    In the EC, though ORL didn't play, they still inched closer to toast because of changes in the middle of the table. And TFC's draw was truly two points lost, not one point won - a slow loss, as I say. It is possible, and perhaps even probable, that TFC and ORL will be toast by the end of next week.

    At this time there are no other prospects for toast, so unless something nutty happens, once TFC and ORL are toasted as expected, it could be a while before any other team is toasted. And this may be the way of things. In 2017, there were 8 toasted teams by August 20, four in each conference, but here were no further toastings until October 1.

    Quick Hits

    It's terrible that the WS will likely be won by a team I'm indifferent to, rather than a team I hate. What a waste!

    So concludes the first (but no doubt not the last) half-assed "full" update of the season.
     
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