New England and Philly are behind, but neither fan base expects the playoffs this year. Their fans also have a certain natural pessimism which encourages accepting such a verdict if warranted. Every other team is either already toast, in a playoff position, or within 0.04 PPG of one, which is less than a single point over the remaining season. Until there's a little more separation, it's hard to see anyone be irrational about their team's chances. But I could see it from Columbus, Orlando, Montreal, San Jose, or any Cascadian team should the circumstances earn toasting.
Oh, no. This team's season was headed to the trash the moment Cassar was given an extension, and not signing the needed starter-level CB guaranteed it. Meeting the mathematical requirements of toast was just a matter of time. There was a bit of optimism following back to back wins a little while ago, but three draws since then lowered expectations again. (Though 9 points in 5 games is still the best the team has done in 2017.)
Has anyone actually seen any Impact fans on this board? They are kind of rarely seen, like a Canada lynx in a Quebec snowstorm.
The Crew sent out a press announcement about parking for a home playoff game during the annual horse show at the state fairgrounds (where Mapfre stadium is located). Much mockery ensued. So don't expect much objection when the Crew are toasted. My guess is the Union get the last spot in the East.
Right now, a home playoff game means holding off Orlando, Montreal, Philadelphia, and New England, then winning an opener on the road. Or passing both Atlanta and NY1 to get a home knockout game. There's maybe a 20% chance of hosting one or more games.
Sportsclub stats had it as 4% for the Crew to finish in 3rd or 4th place and host a knockout game. Crew fans think that is optimistic, given our manager keeps running Jonathan Mensah out as a starter. Just because he's the highest paid defender in the league, doesn't mean he deserves to start.
Add to that the chance of making the playoffs in fifth or sixth, multiplied by the chance of winning a road knockout. Maybe the total chance at a home game is closer to 15% than either 20% or 5%.
It's too much to hope it could happen this year, but I do hope that, this time next year, Schmid is fired once again with the Galaxy in playoff position.
RSL takes the lead among those trying to stave off the laws of toast. But it took a lucky win against the league's worst team, so don't read too much into it.
... The "I'm pissed off and your crap team is still toast" update ... Notes So I'm a wee bit peeved. It's got nothing to do with soccer. There's too much crap in this world and too many crappy people and sometimes it gets me down. Which is why I'm truly thankful that NYC went and beat LAG this weekend. At least that's a little bit of good news. Not that I care that NYC won. I just like to see LAG crawling around where they belong, namely the dirty puddle at the bottom of the MLS table. Of all the WC teams toasted last week, only MIN and LAG remain with despair numbers above 2.00 PPG. COL and RSL both boosted themselves up a hair, the former with a draw and the latter with a win against a despairing DCU. The RSL case is the one to look at. They got three points. That should be a big help, right? Well, not really. See, once your toast, a win here or there doesn't really change your situation all that much. You need wins, one after the other. Last week RSL's CD# was 2.18 PPG, and their AD# was 2.32 PPG. After the win those numbers are 1.87 PPG and 2.03 PPG. That's a big difference numerically, but is it a big difference practically? They've got 9 games left. Even today they probably need to win about 6 of them to hit 2.00 PPG for the remainder of their games to get enough points just to sniff the playoffs. So, no, there's just not a big practical difference. If they string together a few wins (and POR or SJE drop a few games), then maybe we'll have something to talk about. But one win against DCU (of all teams!) really doesn't change anything for RSL. Once toasted, you're toast until you categorically demonstrate otherwise by getting yourself back into an actual playoff position by PPG. There was a lot of movement in the EC. Last week the order was ORL, MTL, PHI, and NER. This week it is MTL, NER, ORL, and PHI. PHI may look close to toast, but I'm not counting any of these teams out yet. None are so far back that they can't catch CLB, and CLB isn't so far ahead that they can afford to stumble. The very top and the very bottom of the EC table are set. DCU is a goner. TFC could lose the rest of its games and still probably sneak into the playoffs. NYC is nearly in the same position as TFC, with CHI not far behind. NYR and ATL need to average maybe 1.00 PPG for the rest of the season, which they should do easily. But that 6th spot? There are still 5 teams alive to claim it, though PHI probably should try to win a game or two so they stay in the hunt. Quick Hits One more loss and DCU will be eliminated from SS contention. But don't worry, they've got a lock on the WS. Hardware is hardware, right? LAG: still formidable away, and crap at home. (I miss Curt.) MIN and PHI have the toughest schedules in the league. So don't get your hopes up PHI. (I know MIN has already wisely lost hope.) MIN has a GD of -20. DCU has a GD of -25. I don't think MIN will catch DCU, but that's an interesting race to the bottom to watch. TFC has a 70.8% winning percentage. That's mind boggling. This may be one of the best teams MLS has ever produced.
By the way, I think it's worth pointing out that FCD at the top of the WC table stands at 1.59 PPG. That would be good enough for 5th place in the EC. Indeed, 1.59 PPG is exactly what 5th place ATL has. And, yet, it's the bottom of the WC that has all those toasted teams. They're not toasted because the top of the WC is unusually good. (It's not.) They're toasted because the bottom of the WC is unusually miserable.
Not really. The last couple years there haven't been many teams doing better than 1.59 PPG. 2016 - 3 teams above 1.59 PPG 2015 - 2 teams above 1.59 PPG This year's EC is unusually good compared to recent years. The WC is more or less the same as usual.
Or in the Rapids case, usually miserable. Unless there's a massive change this season, and there won't be, 4 of the 6 worst seasons in Rapids history have happened in the last 6 years. The other two are more than 15 years old (1996 and 2001).