The 2013 Table - Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Fishy Figures [R]

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by Knave, Aug 23, 2013.

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  1. BrianLBI

    BrianLBI BigSoccer Supporter

    Sep 7, 2002
    New Hampshire
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Buck up - there are 4 stars over the crest on your uniform, and you're in the CCL. Things could be a lot worse!
     
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  2. aperfectring

    aperfectring Member+

    Jul 13, 2011
    Hillsboro, OR
    Club:
    Portland Timbers
    Come on people, you aren't trying hard enough to depress Knave. How about this: If you add DC United and Chivas's point totals together, they still would only be 16th overall, 8th in the east, or 9th (yes, still) in the west.

    I'm really sorry Knave, no one should have to deal with that much failure in one season.
     
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  3. Yoshou

    Yoshou Fan of the CCL Champ

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Or.. At their current rate of points per game, it would take a mere 104.125 games for DCU to get 49 points to equal the minimum number of points to qualify for the playoffs in the Eastern Conference.. Unfortunately they would still lose out on the Wins tie breaker. In order to guarantee a playoff spot, it would take them 106.25 games to get 50 points.
     
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  4. AndyMead

    AndyMead Homo Sapien

    Nov 2, 1999
    Seat 12A
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    So... you're saying there's still a chance?
     
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  5. Neuwerld

    Neuwerld Member+

    Oct 15, 2007
    California
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    I think Chivas 2012-13 have the worst combined two-year GD in league history. -34 last year, -37 this year for a two-year of -71. Given how uncommon -30+ is, I think they might have the worst 3-year (-73), 4-year (-87), and 5-year (-84) as well. It's only their 6-year combined total (-85) when they're overtaken by Toronto FC (-92), who have never had a positive GD.

    Only one team has ended up with a -30+ GD more than once: Chivas. In fact, they've ended up beyond -30 three times.

    All-time worst goal differentials:
    2013 .......... DC ................ -37
    2013 .......... Chivas .......... -37
    2001 .......... Tampa .......... -36
    2005 .......... Chivas .......... -36
    2005 .......... RSL ............... -35
    2012 .......... Chivas ........... -34
    1999 .......... NY ................. -34

    Honorable mention: 2003 Dallas, -29
     
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  6. Mr. Bandwagon

    Mr. Bandwagon Member

    Terremotos
    May 24, 2001
    the Barbary Coast
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    On paper, yes. But if you plan on playing 106.25 matches between March 1st and Oct 31st, that comes out to one match every 2.25 days continuously. Since that would represent issues of its own, such as limited to no time for actual training, physical and mental burn-out, etc., one would have to consider that DC's rate of points earned per match would be likely to decline, which would mean that they would have to play even more matches to reach 50 points. It's a slippery slope when you start just adding matches to the schedule...
     
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  7. redinthemorning

    redinthemorning Member+

    Apr 26, 2011
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    All I read was "MLS needs to go to a European schedule."
     
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  8. SiberianThunderT

    Sep 21, 2008
    DC
    Club:
    Saint Louis Athletica
    Nat'l Team:
    Spain
    But we're not looking for the average. A tie may be worth 1/3 of a win in the weighted standings, but if you're simply counting what the list of unweighted results were, a tie is where neither team won, neither team lost - half a result for both.

    If you count a tie as 1/3 of a win then all you're doing is is re-branding PPG. Winning percentage =/= (PPG*0.333)
     
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  9. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Such cruelty ... :(
     
  10. Sounders78

    Sounders78 Member+

    Apr 20, 2009
    Olympia
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    France
    #860 Sounders78, Oct 28, 2013
    Last edited: Oct 28, 2013
    Fun game! I have one - even if only DC gets to use the old NASL point format slightly modified (6 points for a win, 1 point for each goal up to a maximum of 3 per game, and modified for one point for a draw instead of a shoot-out win), they still fall short with only 47 points! It would get them 7th in the East and 8th in the West.
     
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  11. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Jun 26, 2007
    That's what I call "Classic"... :p
     
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  12. Q*bert Jones III

    Q*bert Jones III The People's Poet

    Feb 12, 2005
    Woodstock, NY
    Club:
    DC United
    You know you're talking about THE CHAMPIONS OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, right? DC is just ruthlessly efficient.
     
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  13. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Jun 26, 2007
    Going forward, I won't be surprise to see more teams taking the route of D.C. and TFC, i.e.

    1. Tank in MLS Regular Season,
    2. Channel all resources to win the USOC / Canadian C'ships,
    3. Enjoy better draft picks & allocation $$ in the off-season,
    4. Tank in the next MLS Regular Season as well,
    5. Enjoy even better draft picks & allocation $$ in the off-season,
    4. Channel all resources to win more USOC / CC & of course, CCL.​

    Will D.C. achieve it in 2014-15? TFC almost pulled it off in 2011-2012...

    (Perhaps, that was the reason they lost 0-5 to NYRB on the last day of 2009?
    Sacrifice for the "Bigger Picture" :p)
     
  14. redinthemorning

    redinthemorning Member+

    Apr 26, 2011
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Single-elimination tournaments like USOC are inherently unfair, especially in a sport like soccer. You can win or lose one game on just a few mistakes or great plays. It's a shaky strategy. Maybe a good idea for a sure-fire bottom dweller, but not a good strategy for borderline playoff teams.
     
  15. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Jun 26, 2007
    Or simply (W-L)/(W+L)...

    The # of Ties is irrelevant.
     
  16. Neuwerld

    Neuwerld Member+

    Oct 15, 2007
    California
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    I'm not sure if this has been mentioned yet, but as far as I can tell DC dominates another historic stat: biggest point drop-off between two seasons.

    DC 2012: 58 pts
    DC 2013: 16 pts
    Difference: 42 pts

    I believe the next closest is Tampa, who dropped 34 points (52 to 14) between 2000 and 2001, then DC again, who dropped 27 points (57 to 30) between 1999 and 2000. DC, in fact, has also had the most "largest drop-off"s, with 4.

    Largest drop-offs by season:
    96-97 ........ Tampa .......... -13
    97-98 ........ KC ................. -17
    98-99 ........ NY................. -24
    99-00 ....... DC ................. -27
    00-01 ....... Tampa ........... -34
    01-02 ....... Chicago ......... -16
    02-03 ....... Dallas ............ -20
    03-04 ....... Chicago ......... -20
    04-05 ....... Columbus ...... -11
    05-06 ....... NE .................. -11
    06-07 ....... Dallas .............. -8
    07-08 ....... DC .................. -18
    08-09 ....... NY ................. -18
    09-10 ....... DC .................. -18
    10-11 ........ SJ .................... -8
    11-12 ........ LA/DAL .......... -13
    12-13 ........ DC .................. -42

    Neat duel there between DC and NY from 08-10.

    These drop-offs don't necessarily mean that a team sucked that year, but they do generally mean a disappointing season.

    Most "largest drop-off"s by team:
    DC: 4
    Dallas: 3 (1 shared)
    NY: 2
    Tampa: 2
    Chicago: 2
    SJ: 1
    LA: 1 (shared)
    Columbus: 1
    KC: 1
    NE: 1

    *No guarantees on the data. It should all be correct, but the standings get confusing to look at and compare at times given that they are always changing (new teams, changes in conferences).
     
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  17. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Jun 26, 2007
    Trust you can work out the other for the "Largest Shoot-ups", :)

    The current record, IIRC, should be 1999-00 NYRB @ (54-15=) 39 points.

    For 2013 season, the largest Shoot-up should belong to Portland (57-34=) 23 points, coupled with a jump of 14 places in the SS Standings (from 17th-place to 3rd) over the 2 seasons... :thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup:

    D.C.'s slip of 16 places (from 3rd to 19th) between 2012-13 could well be a record too. :cry::cry::cry:
     
  18. profiled

    profiled Moderator
    Staff Member

    Feb 7, 2000
    slightly north of a mile high
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
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  19. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Jun 26, 2007
  20. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Jun 26, 2007
    My favorite article on RSSSF: "Most Competitive League"
    http://www.rsssf.com/miscellaneous/even.html

     
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  21. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Does this topic still need to be stickied?
    @Ismitje
     
  22. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    I say no.

    I do plan to post one more thing, but that doesn't mean this thread remains topical enough to merit a sticky.
     
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  23. Ismitje

    Ismitje Super Moderator

    Dec 30, 2000
    The Palouse
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I once took someone's office decorations down because I though they were for a specific holiday, and it had passed, so I decided to help them out and clean it all up for them. Except they intended them for the whole month, and my actions went over very poorly.

    Long way of saying - I would defer to Knave completely rather than deeming all of his work something that must "come down" before the end of the season. He has spoken though, so unsticky it goes.
     
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  24. Mr. Bandwagon

    Mr. Bandwagon Member

    Terremotos
    May 24, 2001
    the Barbary Coast
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Black History month?
     
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  25. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Jun 26, 2007
    Was under the impression that it will last until the end of playoffs, though Thread Owner's decision is respected.

    Thanks for the ride here, truly enjoyed reading / contributing to it every season... :)
     
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