The 2013 Table - Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Fishy Figures [R]

Sounders78 · Aug 31, 2013

vividox said: ↑

Toronto officially eliminated from the SS race last night. Chivas can still mathematically win, but it would take quite a bit (Chivas wins out, Toronto wins out, DC wins out, RSL loses out, Montreal loses to Columbus and Chicago, Seattle loses to Columbus, all other fixtures are ties, Chivas makes up a 26 "goals for" deficit on RSL - BUT THERE IS A CHANCE!)
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The definition of an optimist!

nlsanand · Aug 31, 2013

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/DCUnited.html

Sportsclubstats is showing DCU eliminated with a tie this weekend. Though I think that there are some possibilities for DCU with an MPP of 38/39. However, if Philly gets a win (or even a point), there are several situations where DCU is eliminated tonight.

nlsanand · Aug 31, 2013

And by my count, DC United is now eliminated

redinthemorning · Aug 31, 2013

nlsanand said: ↑

And by my count, DC United is now eliminated
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sitruc · Sep 1, 2013

Second time I've paused during a goal tonight.

Knave · Sep 1, 2013

I only saw the scores. That's probably more than enough ...

Notes

I'm told DCU has been eliminated from playoff contention. Their T# is, however, still +2. I'll leave it to others to figure whether DCU is, or isn't, officially eliminated.

I also neglected to mention that TFC can no longer win the SS. That item is now accordingly grayed out for them.

DCU is striding toward victory in the WS race. They've already eliminated the entire top half of the table -- except for HOU.

nlsanand · Sep 1, 2013

Knave said: ↑

I only saw the scores. That's probably more than enough ...

Notes

I'm told DCU has been eliminated from playoff contention. Their T# is, however, still +2. I'll leave it to others to figure whether DCU is, or isn't, officially eliminated.
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So the explanation. HOU, CHI, NER, and CLB are all in contention. Under the best of circumstances for DCU, Houston, Chicago, and New England could end up tied on 38 points (since they all play each other once). However, since Columbus plays the other three teams four times (including New England twice). Therefore, Columbus would then have to get over 38.

QED.

Sounders78 · Sep 1, 2013

Looks like Columbus is pretty much on life support and San Jose is in desperate need of a blood transfusion

vividox · Sep 1, 2013

Yep, I am getting that DCU is out of the playoffs too. Even if they win out, the west wins all remaining games against the east, MON, NYR, SKC, PHI, and TOR win out, then you are left with HOU, NER, CLB, and CHI fighting it out with too many fixtures between each other to all stay under 38 points.

Also, Chivas is still not mathematically eliminated from the SS race.

Knave · Sep 2, 2013

The "I didn't see a damn thing" Update.

Quick Notes & Asterisks

* Despite the +2 T#, DCU has been eliminated from playoff contention. See explanations here and here.

CHV has been eliminated from SS contention.

Right now both conferences feature three very clear, and basically separated groupings: the top three, then a PPG gap, then a muddle in the middle, then a PPG gap, then the dead and dying.

Back to the usual longer analysis next weeked. Maybe I'll even see some games next weekend!

henryo · Sep 2, 2013

Knave said: ↑

Quick Table Note

RSL is now tied with MTL on PPG for the SS race.
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Actually, by 3 decimal points, RSL (1.714) were slightly ahead of MTL (1.708) on PPG,

Doesn't matter now anyway...

Knave · Sep 2, 2013

henryo said: ↑

Actually, by 3 decimal points, RSL (1.714) were slightly ahead of MTL (1.708) on PPG,
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You and your 3 decimal point sorcery!

evangel · Sep 2, 2013

henryo said: ↑

Actually, by 3 decimal points, RSL (1.714) were slightly ahead of MTL (1.708) on PPG,

Doesn't matter now anyway...
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Knave said: ↑

You and your 3 decimal point sorcery!
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Well, PPG isn't an exact methodology in soccer anyway because of the jump from 1 point for a draw to 3 for a win. Technically RSL is ahead on a pure PPG, but if Montreal and RSL were to win all the rest of their matches, Montreal would be ahead by 3 points.

GalaxyKoa · Sep 4, 2013

evangel said: ↑

Well, PPG isn't an exact methodology in soccer anyway because of the jump from 1 point for a draw to 3 for a win. Technically RSL is ahead on a pure PPG, but if Montreal and RSL were to win all the rest of their matches, Montreal would be ahead by 3 points.
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And if LA wins all their matches, they win the SS regardless. Wouldn't that just be something?

Sounders78 · Sep 4, 2013

GalaxyKoa said: ↑

And if LA wins all their matches, they win the SS regardless. Wouldn't that just be something?
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The same can be said for Seattle.

henryo · Sep 4, 2013

evangel said: ↑

Well, PPG isn't an exact methodology in soccer anyway because of the jump from 1 point for a draw to 3 for a win. Technically RSL is ahead on a pure PPG, but if Montreal and RSL were to win all the rest of their matches, Montreal would be ahead by 3 points.
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Related Debate on Games-in-Hand vs Points-in-Bag...

The Games-in-Hand advantage can be realized if the chasing teams don't slip up themselves.

henryo said: ↑

Points in the bag are better than games in hand...
http://cardiffcity.no/2011/03/02/points-in-the-bag-are-better-than-games-in-hand/

Points In The Bag Or Games In Hand?
http://www.owlstalk.co.uk/forums/index.php/topic/163414-points-in-the-bag-or-games-in-hand/

Wiki: Games in Hand:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_in_hand
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Ivensor said: ↑

Here, let me save us all a lot of trouble so we don't have to get into this again:
- We would all take 3 points over 1 game in hand. Hence, "points are better than games in hand."
- But, we would all agree that if you're tied on points, it's great to have an extra game in hand. Hence, games in hand are not worthless.
- Therefore, a game in hand is worth something between 0 and 3 points. We can quibble about exactly how much it is worth, and some of us have different opinions than others. And that's okay. My take on it is that PPG is a good estimate of what a game in hand is worth. Of course, that doesn't take into account the difficulty of the games, but as a rough proxy it's not bad. Others think that teams with games in hand tend to choke with the pressure, thus they would argue that a game in hand is worth something less than a team's PPG. They might be right, but I don't think we have any evidence on this. It would certainly be hard to argue that a game in hand is worth more than a team's PPG, unless that team is really on a hot streak that you think will continue or something weird like that.

That's about where we stand, I think. Now, we don't have to have this argument again.
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gstommylee · Sep 4, 2013

Sounders78 said: ↑

The same can be said for Seattle.
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Problem is seattle plays RLS and LA twice. I doubt seattle will win out.

Zona · Sep 4, 2013

gstommylee said: ↑

Problem is seattle plays RLS and LA twice. I doubt seattle will win out.
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Though Seattle wouldn't have to win out. If they tie RSL and LA in each of those games and win the others they have remaining, that would be enough to guarantee them the shield.

Yoshou · Sep 4, 2013

Zona said: ↑

Though Seattle wouldn't have to win out. If they tie RSL and LA in each of those games and win the others they have remaining, that would be enough to guarantee them the shield.
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While winning out is always fun.. Considering how bad the Sounders started off the season (I believe they were the last team in the league to get a win), the fact that if they win their next three games (all at home), they'd be leading the SS race is amazing.

Sounders78 · Sep 4, 2013

gstommylee said: ↑

Problem is seattle plays RLS and LA twice. I doubt seattle will win out.
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I doubt any team will win out. It is not often that any team wins 5 in a row, much less 8-10 in a row.

I thought we were talking about mathematical possibilities, not what is most likely.

GalaxyKoa · Sep 4, 2013

Sounders78 said: ↑

The same can be said for Seattle.
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Which is kind of what I was getting at: saying a team will "win out" and get the SS is kind of a bad metric. It's cool to have your fate in your own hands and all, but at this point it's just far too massive a "what if".

henryo · Sep 4, 2013

Yoshou said: ↑

While winning out is always fun.. Considering how bad the Sounders started off the season (I believe they were the last team in the league to get a win), the fact that if they win their next three games (all at home), they'd be leading the SS race is amazing.
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They had a similar run in 2011 too (started off 4 games winless),
eventually finishing just 4 points behind L.A. as SS runners-up.

Let's see if they can go one better this time round...

Previously, Columbus of 2004/2009 & D.C. United of 2007 had won the SS with extended losing starts as well:

Columbus 2004: 0W-3L-2T

D.C. United 2007: 0W-3L-1T

Columbus 2009: 0W-2L-5T (Longest Record!!)

Sounders78 · Sep 5, 2013

Don't look now but after the Chivas win Seattle is now on top in ppg - still need to do some catching up in actual points though.

Knave · Sep 5, 2013

The Knave Bowl is gonna be epic. But if we can just manage to lose this one game, I'm sure the Wooden Spoon will be ours! I have faith in my DCU. After all, "We win trophies spoons!"

AndyMead · Sep 5, 2013

Knave said: ↑

The Knave Bowl is gonna be epic. But if we can just manage to lose this one game, I'm sure the Wooden Spoon will be ours! I have faith in my DCU. After all, "We win trophies spoons!"
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I hear Kevin Payne is available.