The 2011 Table - Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Calculated Distortions [R]

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by Knave, Aug 25, 2011.

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  1. The Devil's Architect

    Feb 10, 2000
    The American Steppe
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Don't bet on it, numbnuts.

    Youshou is correct. The USOC is both an easy path to the CCL (finally) and a tournament that the FO/Team had always taken extremely seriously up until the previous couple of years (hence the 4 titles) when Osorio/Hamlett/CDLC were in charge. Now that Klopas is interim coach, they have taken it seriously from their first match this season.
     
  2. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    If they speak to the West, then they also speak to the East. Both West and East are competing for the exact same wildcard spots (it's just that the East is also competing for strongly for their top 3). As I've said before, the point at which the HD# loses its relevance is when the 10th place team either falls far below the HD# baseline of 1.33 PPG or goes way above it (like last year). We don't have that situation yet, and we may not have that situation this year.

    Even if the AD# baseline falls below the historical HD# baseline, CHI is still going to have a really rough time making the playoffs. If that happens then one of the current top 10 teams has probably faltered badly, and there's an opening for a current sub-top-10 team to move up. But there are two other teams below the top 10 that are in a better position than CHI to move up: POR and NYR.

    Given the choice between going all out for the USOC, and maybe squeaking into the playoffs via the wildcards, I can understand why Klopas might put special emphasis on the former.
     
  3. bgix

    bgix Bad Penny

    Jun 29, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yeah, I hate emoticons, but I probably should have emoticonned the hell out of that one...:) :rolleyes: :eek:
     
  4. tab5g

    tab5g Member+

    May 17, 2002
    CLB seems to be well on their faltering way, and a team like DC wouldn't have to "falter badly" down the stretch to not pick up the "necessary" points (6 or 7 might not be enough for them to get in) from their final 6 games.

    and fewer than 4 points for either or both of HOU or COL in their final 3 games wouldn't necessarily be "faltering badly". (Note that COL has picked up 2 points from their last 5 games, so they're also possibly already on that CLB-like faltering route.) it appears to be very possible for a couple of teams currently in the top10 to not do enough to stake a claim and hold onto or improve their standing in these last 4 weeks of the season. (and "not doing enough" has a different connotation than "faltering badly," imo.)

    (of course, that's all speculation and the table and current PPG rates do a better job explaining things, although each team's PPG rate won't remain all that "predictive" as fewer and fewer games remain to be played this season. and CHI's PPG rate over their last 7 games has been tremendous, as noted earlier -- not that their recent rate has any real predictive value for their next 4 games.)

    and those positions (11-13) are tenuous and certainly open to being changed (rather quickly). come Sunday night, it's possible for CHI to have already vaulted ahead of (or even with) both POR and NYR in the PPG table.
     
  5. GreatGonzo

    GreatGonzo Member+

    Jul 1, 1999
    MA
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    For Chicago, all 4 of their remaining games are against teams ahead of them in the table, and 3 of them are against teams that are fighting for those EC / wild card spots.

    @HOU
    FCD
    @DC
    CLB

    Losing any of the games to the other EC teams would be a dagger to their chances. Likewise, each win would be a big swing in the other direction. Chicago can still certainly get in, but they can afford very few mistakes at this point.
     
  6. radmonkey

    radmonkey Member

    Oct 27, 2007
    [​IMG]
     
  7. Hachiko

    Hachiko The Akita on Big Soccer

    Jun 8, 2005
    Long Beach, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    This is a great thread. Good work, Knave.
     
  8. GreatGonzo

    GreatGonzo Member+

    Jul 1, 1999
    MA
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Yeah, in retrospect, my previous post was stating the obvious, but my point (which I failed to make, which I blame on staying up too late watching the Rapids - Metapan game last night) was that Chicago plays the teams that are their direct competition. Except for Dallas, if Chicago wins, it means that one of their direct competitors falters, which is what Knave is saying that Chicago has to count on. It's not like Chicago is playing San Jose, Vancouver, and Seattle, where they can get results and not make up any points due to their competitors matching the results. Likewise, if Chicago slips up, it's not like they can hope for their competitors to also slip up. That's all I was trying to say.
     
  9. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    ... Updoopdate ...

    Code:
    [B][U]         GP  GR  W   D   L   PTS PPG   PRJ MPP SE# T#  M#  WS# HD#   AD#   CNF[/U]
    [COLOR="Blue"]01  LAG  30  04  17  10  03  61  2.03  69  73  13  --  --  --  ----  ----  W
    02  SEA  30  04  15  09  06  54  1.80  61  66  06  --  --  --  ----  ----  W
    03  RSL  30  04  15  06  09  51  1.70  58  63  03  --  --  --  ----  ----  W[/COLOR]
    04  FCD  30  04  13  07  10  46  1.53  52  58  --  20  05  --  ----  ----  W
    05  PHI  30  04  10  13  07  43  1.43  49  55  --  17  08  --  0.50  0.64  E
    06  SKC  31  03  11  11  09  44  1.42  48  53  --  15  07  --  0.33  0.52  E
    07  COL  31  03  10  12  09  42  1.35  46  51  --  13  09  --  1.00  1.18  W
    08  HOU  31  03  10  12  09  42  1.35  46  51  --  13  09  --  1.00  1.18  E
    09  CMB  31  03  11  08  12  41  1.32  45  50  --  12  10  --  1.33  1.52  E
    10  DCU  29  05  09  11  09  38  1.31  45  53  --  15  13  --  1.40  1.51  E
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
    11  NYR  30  04  08  15  07  39  1.30  44  51  --  13  12  --  1.50  1.64  E
    12  POR  30  04  10  07  13  37  1.23  42  49  --  11  14  01  2.00  2.14  W
    13  CHI  30  04  07  15  08  36  1.20  41  48  --  10  15  02  2.25  2.39  E
    14  CHV  31  03  08  11  12  35  1.13  38  44  --  06  16  03  ----  ----  W
    15  SJE  30  04  06  13  11  31  1.03  35  43  --  05  20  07  ----  ----  W
    16  TFC  31  03  06  12  13  30  0.97  33  39  --  01  21  08  ----  ----  E
    17  NER  30  04  05  12  13  27  0.90  31  39  --  01  24  11  ----  ----  E
    [COLOR="Gray"]18  VAN  29  05  04  10  15  22  0.76  26  37  --  --  --  16  ----  ----  W[/COLOR]
    
    Current AD-Baseline: 46
    
    Unchanged since last update.
    Set by DCU’s 45 point, 1.31 PPG pace. [/B]
    Code:
    [B]GP = Games Played | GR = Games Remaining | PPG = Points Per Game
    MPP = Max Points Possible = PTS + (3 x GR)
    SE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1 
    M# = Magic Number = (11th Highest MPP) – PTS + 1
    T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (10th Highest PTS) + 1
    WS# = Wooden Spoon # = (18th Highest MPP) - PTS +1
    HD# = Historical Despair Number = [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=24203471&postcount=1"]Full explanation[/URL]
    AD# = Actual Despair Number = [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=24203471&postcount=1"]Full explanation[/URL]
    
    - Sorted by PPG, then most GR, then alphabetical.
    - Teams in [COLOR="Gray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs.
    - Teams in [COLOR="Blue"]blue[/COLOR] have clinched a playoff spot.
    - Teams in [COLOR="Green"]green[/COLOR] are conference seeds.
    - Team in [COLOR="Brown"]brown[/COLOR] has won the Wooden Spoon.
    - Teams in [I]italics[/I] are conference champions.[/B]
    Notes

    One game, just a couple notes. PHI jumps to the top of the East on PPG basis, but only by a whisker (and they're behind SKC on points).

    As for DCU, this game was not a must win. A draw or a win would have been a big help, but DCU can afford this loss. The team has 5 games left and stands on 38 points. I believe out of its last 5 games DCU needs a minimum of 2 wins and 1 draw for 7 more points. That's still fully achievable. Lastly, I don't usually post the strength of schedule numbers in these small updates, but it's worth noting DCU's current ranking ...
    Code:
    [B][U]Remaining Strength of Schedule[/U]
    (Factoring Opponent Home and Away Performance)
    
    01  CHV:  1.69
    02  NYR:  1.50
    03  HOU:  1.49
    04  LAG:  1.47
    06  RSL:  1.42
    07  CHI:  1.38
    05  POR:  1.37
    08  CMB:  1.36
    09  SJE:  1.36
    10  PHI:  1.32
    11  COL:  1.32
    12  SKC:  1.21
    13  VAN:  1.19
    15  NER:  1.18
    14  FCD:  1.16
    16  TFC:  1.13
    17  SEA:  1.09
    18  DCU:  1.08[/B]
    For whatever it's worth, DCU currently has the easiest schedule in the league.
     
  10. tab5g

    tab5g Member+

    May 17, 2002
    Re: ... Updoopdate ...

    of course it's still achievable, but 1.4 PPG (across their final 5 games) would be above their current 1.31 PPG average (through 29 games).

    7 points from their final 5 games could be classified as over-achieving for DC this season.

    "easiest" and "busiest" league schedule.

    but the loss in game 29 dropped DC from 7th to 10th in the PPG table.

    and a loss in game 30 (at CLB on Sunday) could (of course depending on other results) drop them down to 12th.

    of course, they still have the game(s) in hand on most of their immediate/closed rivals for playoff spots, but the loss in game 29 puts extra pressure and urgency on each of the remaining five games for them.
     
  11. RapidStorm

    RapidStorm Member+

    Jan 30, 2005
    Denver, CO
    Re: ... Updoopdate ...

    When the difference between 7th and 12th in PPG is just 0.12, and there are just 5 games left for DC, it basically makes no difference. The only thing it says is that you're not likely to make up points on those teams ahead of you, and that leaves NY as your only real concern if you're only aiming to just make the playoffs.

    If you're concerned about the seeding, then it's a little more important.
     
  12. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Re: ... Updoopdate ...

    Busiest is the big concern. If there's any reason DCU can't manage another 7 points, it's accumulated knocks and injuries coupled with not quite enough depth.
     
  13. milicz

    milicz Member+

    Dec 2, 2001
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    Poland
    Re: ... Updoopdate ...

    It looked like DeRo picked up a knock, if he can't go the next few games I think DC are, wait for it..... TOAST!
     
  14. tab5g

    tab5g Member+

    May 17, 2002
    Re: ... Updoopdate ...

    DeRo (and maybe some other guys) won't be available (very likely, depending on how his injury is treated) for DC's 10/12 game at VAN due to international duty on 10/11.
     
  15. Yoshou

    Yoshou Fan of the CCL Champ

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Fortunately, it is against Vancouver. :)
     
  16. Omar

    Omar Hurrrrr....

    Nov 23, 2007
    Monterrey MEX
    Club:
    Club Tigres de la UANL
    Nat'l Team:
    Mexico
    Sadly its still DC... :p
     
  17. tab5g

    tab5g Member+

    May 17, 2002
    DC currently (as of 9/30/11) has more away wins (5) than VAN has home wins (4) this season. (Edit, DC's road PPG is 1.27, while VAN's home PPG is 1.31 currently.)

    as a slightly more on-topic item, I'm expecting a good bit of movement in the PPG table as a result of games on 10/1 and 10/2.

    having said/expected that, it is MLS so a good number of ties and very little table shuffling is also a very likely outcome from the next 9 games.
     
  18. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    ... Quick & Dirty Update ...

    Quick update between games ...
    Code:
    [B][U]         GP  GR  W   D   L   PTS PPG   PRJ MPP SE# T#  M#  WS# HD#   AD#   CNF[/U]
    01  LAG  30  04  17  10  03  61  2.03  69  73  13  --  --  --  ----  ----  W
    02  SEA  30  04  15  09  06  54  1.80  61  66  06  --  --  --  ----  ----  W
    03  RSL  30  04  15  06  09  51  1.70  58  63  03  --  --  --  ----  ----  W
    04  FCD  30  04  13  07  10  46  1.53  52  58  --  20  04  --  ----  ----  W
    05  PHI  30  04  10  13  07  43  1.43  49  55  --  17  07  --  0.50  0.64  E
    06  SKC  31  03  11  11  09  44  1.42  48  53  --  15  06  --  0.33  0.52  E
    07  COL  31  03  10  12  09  42  1.35  46  51  --  13  08  --  1.00  1.18  W
    08  HOU  32  02  10  13  09  43  1.34  46  49  --  11  07  --  1.00  1.28  E
    09  CMB  31  03  11  08  12  41  1.32  45  50  --  12  09  --  1.33  1.52  E
    10  DCU  29  05  09  11  09  38  1.31  45  53  --  15  12  --  1.40  1.51  E
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
    11  NYR  30  04  08  15  07  39  1.30  44  51  --  13  11  --  1.50  1.64  E
    12  POR  30  04  10  07  13  37  1.23  42  49  --  11  13  01  2.00  2.14  W
    13  CHI  31  03  07  16  08  37  1.19  41  46  --  08  13  01  2.67  2.85  E
    14  CHV  31  03  08  11  12  35  1.13  38  44  --  06  15  03  ----  ----  W
    15  SJE  30  04  06  13  11  31  1.03  35  43  --  05  19  07  ----  ----  W
    16  TFC  31  03  06  12  13  30  0.97  33  39  --  01  20  08  ----  ----  E
    17  NER  30  04  05  12  13  27  0.90  31  39  --  01  23  11  ----  ----  E
    18  VAN  29  05  04  10  15  22  0.76  26  37  --  --  --  16  ----  ----  W[/b]
     
  19. Green and BLue

    Green and BLue Member+

    Seattle Sounders FC
    Nov 3, 2003
    Republic of Cascadia
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    So with NE's loss and TFC's draw, they are both eliminated from the playoff chase, right?
     
  20. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Yes. I'll post an updated table after these last two games.
     
  21. RapidStorm

    RapidStorm Member+

    Jan 30, 2005
    Denver, CO
    And if DC wins tomorrow, San Jose (edit) could be eliminated, too. Comes down to one of those multi-team tiebreakers.

    If Chivas loses AND DC wins, it also comes down to a multi-team tiebreaker, but Chivas could disappoint also.
     
  22. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    ... Untoaster Update ...

    Code:
    [B][U]         GP  GR  W   D   L   PTS PPG   PRJ MPP SE# T#  M#  WS# HD#   AD#   CNF[/U]
    [COLOR="Blue"]01  LAG  31  03  18  10  03  64  2.06  70  73  10  --  --  --  ----  ----  W
    02  SEA  31  03  16  09  06  57  1.84  63  66  03  --  --  --  ----  ----  W
    03  RSL  31  03  15  06  10  51  1.65  56  60  --  --  --  --  ----  ----  W[/COLOR]
    04  FCD  31  03  13  07  11  46  1.48  50  55  --  16  04  --  ----  ----  W
    05  PHI  30  04  10  13  07  43  1.43  49  55  --  16  07  --  0.50  0.64  E
    06  COL  32  02  11  12  09  45  1.41  48  51  --  12  05  --  0.00  0.28  W
    07  SKC  32  02  11  12  09  45  1.41  48  51  --  12  05  --  0.00  0.28  E
    08  HOU  32  02  10  13  09  43  1.34  46  49  --  10  07  --  1.00  1.28  E
    09  CMB  31  03  11  08  12  41  1.32  45  50  --  11  09  --  1.33  1.52  E
    10  DCU  29  05  09  11  09  38  1.31  45  53  --  14  12  --  1.40  1.51  E
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
    11  NYR  31  03  08  16  07  40  1.29  44  49  --  10  10  --  1.67  1.85  E
    12  POR  30  04  10  07  13  37  1.23  42  49  --  10  13  --  2.00  2.14  W
    13  CHI  31  03  07  16  08  37  1.19  41  46  --  07  13  --  2.67  2.85  E
    14  CHV  31  03  08  11  12  35  1.13  38  44  --  05  15  02  ----  ----  W
    15  SJE  31  03  06  14  11  32  1.03  35  41  --  02  18  05  ----  ----  W
    [COLOR="Gray"]16  TFC  32  02  06  13  13  31  0.97  33  37  --  --  --  06  ----  ----  E
    17  NER  31  03  05  12  14  27  0.87  30  36  --  --  --  10  ----  ----  E
    18  VAN  29  05  04  10  15  22  0.76  26  37  --  --  --  15  ----  ----  W[/COLOR]
    
    Current AD-Baseline: 46
    
    Unchanged since last update.
    Set by DCU’s 45 point, 1.31 PPG pace. [/B]
    Code:
    [B]GP = Games Played | GR = Games Remaining | PPG = Points Per Game
    MPP = Max Points Possible = PTS + (3 x GR)
    SE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1 
    M# = Magic Number = (11th Highest MPP) – PTS + 1
    T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (10th Highest PTS) + 1
    WS# = Wooden Spoon # = (18th Highest MPP) - PTS +1
    HD# = Historical Despair Number = [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=24203471&postcount=1"]Full explanation[/URL]
    AD# = Actual Despair Number = [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=24203471&postcount=1"]Full explanation[/URL]
    
    - Sorted by PPG, then most GR, then alphabetical.
    - Teams in [COLOR="Gray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs.
    - Teams in [COLOR="Blue"]blue[/COLOR] have clinched a playoff spot.
    - Teams in [COLOR="Green"]green[/COLOR] are conference seeds.
    - Team in [COLOR="Brown"]brown[/COLOR] has won the Wooden Spoon.
    - Teams in [I]italics[/I] are conference champions.[/B]
    Notes

    First, I would like to point out that you can, in fact, untoast toast. Check out this marvel of modern technology!

    Second, keeping it quick:

    TFC and NER: It's official. Adios.

    RSL: No SS for you!

    SEA: Help me, Obi-Sounders Kenobi. You're my only SS hope.

    LAG: Oh, who are we kidding? LAG has the SS as good as won. Damn ...

    FCD: Shrug ...

    NYR: Can you feel the MetroStars Playoff Fever?

    HOU and SKC: Holding their ground.

    COL: Gaining some ground.

    Let's see, did I miss anything important? Oh, right ...

    CHI: Still toast.
     
  23. Kejsare

    Kejsare Member+

    Portland Timbers
    Mar 10, 2010
    Virginia
    Club:
    Portland Timbers
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I really want to know your feelings about Portland. Like pretty please?
     
  24. Knave

    Knave Member+

    May 25, 1999
    Tomorrow. Along with DCU, CMB, VAN, PHI and CHV.
     
  25. bgix

    bgix Bad Penny

    Jun 29, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States

    Without 3 tomorrow, will be taking on a nice golden brown shade.
     

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