Don't bet on it, numbnuts. Youshou is correct. The USOC is both an easy path to the CCL (finally) and a tournament that the FO/Team had always taken extremely seriously up until the previous couple of years (hence the 4 titles) when Osorio/Hamlett/CDLC were in charge. Now that Klopas is interim coach, they have taken it seriously from their first match this season.
If they speak to the West, then they also speak to the East. Both West and East are competing for the exact same wildcard spots (it's just that the East is also competing for strongly for their top 3). As I've said before, the point at which the HD# loses its relevance is when the 10th place team either falls far below the HD# baseline of 1.33 PPG or goes way above it (like last year). We don't have that situation yet, and we may not have that situation this year. Even if the AD# baseline falls below the historical HD# baseline, CHI is still going to have a really rough time making the playoffs. If that happens then one of the current top 10 teams has probably faltered badly, and there's an opening for a current sub-top-10 team to move up. But there are two other teams below the top 10 that are in a better position than CHI to move up: POR and NYR. Given the choice between going all out for the USOC, and maybe squeaking into the playoffs via the wildcards, I can understand why Klopas might put special emphasis on the former.
CLB seems to be well on their faltering way, and a team like DC wouldn't have to "falter badly" down the stretch to not pick up the "necessary" points (6 or 7 might not be enough for them to get in) from their final 6 games. and fewer than 4 points for either or both of HOU or COL in their final 3 games wouldn't necessarily be "faltering badly". (Note that COL has picked up 2 points from their last 5 games, so they're also possibly already on that CLB-like faltering route.) it appears to be very possible for a couple of teams currently in the top10 to not do enough to stake a claim and hold onto or improve their standing in these last 4 weeks of the season. (and "not doing enough" has a different connotation than "faltering badly," imo.) (of course, that's all speculation and the table and current PPG rates do a better job explaining things, although each team's PPG rate won't remain all that "predictive" as fewer and fewer games remain to be played this season. and CHI's PPG rate over their last 7 games has been tremendous, as noted earlier -- not that their recent rate has any real predictive value for their next 4 games.) and those positions (11-13) are tenuous and certainly open to being changed (rather quickly). come Sunday night, it's possible for CHI to have already vaulted ahead of (or even with) both POR and NYR in the PPG table.
For Chicago, all 4 of their remaining games are against teams ahead of them in the table, and 3 of them are against teams that are fighting for those EC / wild card spots. @HOU FCD @DC CLB Losing any of the games to the other EC teams would be a dagger to their chances. Likewise, each win would be a big swing in the other direction. Chicago can still certainly get in, but they can afford very few mistakes at this point.
Yeah, in retrospect, my previous post was stating the obvious, but my point (which I failed to make, which I blame on staying up too late watching the Rapids - Metapan game last night) was that Chicago plays the teams that are their direct competition. Except for Dallas, if Chicago wins, it means that one of their direct competitors falters, which is what Knave is saying that Chicago has to count on. It's not like Chicago is playing San Jose, Vancouver, and Seattle, where they can get results and not make up any points due to their competitors matching the results. Likewise, if Chicago slips up, it's not like they can hope for their competitors to also slip up. That's all I was trying to say.
... Updoopdate ... Code: [B][U] GP GR W D L PTS PPG PRJ MPP SE# T# M# WS# HD# AD# CNF[/U] [COLOR="Blue"]01 LAG 30 04 17 10 03 61 2.03 69 73 13 -- -- -- ---- ---- W 02 SEA 30 04 15 09 06 54 1.80 61 66 06 -- -- -- ---- ---- W 03 RSL 30 04 15 06 09 51 1.70 58 63 03 -- -- -- ---- ---- W[/COLOR] 04 FCD 30 04 13 07 10 46 1.53 52 58 -- 20 05 -- ---- ---- W 05 PHI 30 04 10 13 07 43 1.43 49 55 -- 17 08 -- 0.50 0.64 E 06 SKC 31 03 11 11 09 44 1.42 48 53 -- 15 07 -- 0.33 0.52 E 07 COL 31 03 10 12 09 42 1.35 46 51 -- 13 09 -- 1.00 1.18 W 08 HOU 31 03 10 12 09 42 1.35 46 51 -- 13 09 -- 1.00 1.18 E 09 CMB 31 03 11 08 12 41 1.32 45 50 -- 12 10 -- 1.33 1.52 E 10 DCU 29 05 09 11 09 38 1.31 45 53 -- 15 13 -- 1.40 1.51 E ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 NYR 30 04 08 15 07 39 1.30 44 51 -- 13 12 -- 1.50 1.64 E 12 POR 30 04 10 07 13 37 1.23 42 49 -- 11 14 01 2.00 2.14 W 13 CHI 30 04 07 15 08 36 1.20 41 48 -- 10 15 02 2.25 2.39 E 14 CHV 31 03 08 11 12 35 1.13 38 44 -- 06 16 03 ---- ---- W 15 SJE 30 04 06 13 11 31 1.03 35 43 -- 05 20 07 ---- ---- W 16 TFC 31 03 06 12 13 30 0.97 33 39 -- 01 21 08 ---- ---- E 17 NER 30 04 05 12 13 27 0.90 31 39 -- 01 24 11 ---- ---- E [COLOR="Gray"]18 VAN 29 05 04 10 15 22 0.76 26 37 -- -- -- 16 ---- ---- W[/COLOR] Current AD-Baseline: 46 Unchanged since last update. Set by DCU’s 45 point, 1.31 PPG pace. [/B] Code: [B]GP = Games Played | GR = Games Remaining | PPG = Points Per Game MPP = Max Points Possible = PTS + (3 x GR) SE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1 M# = Magic Number = (11th Highest MPP) – PTS + 1 T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (10th Highest PTS) + 1 WS# = Wooden Spoon # = (18th Highest MPP) - PTS +1 HD# = Historical Despair Number = [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=24203471&postcount=1"]Full explanation[/URL] AD# = Actual Despair Number = [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=24203471&postcount=1"]Full explanation[/URL] - Sorted by PPG, then most GR, then alphabetical. - Teams in [COLOR="Gray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs. - Teams in [COLOR="Blue"]blue[/COLOR] have clinched a playoff spot. - Teams in [COLOR="Green"]green[/COLOR] are conference seeds. - Team in [COLOR="Brown"]brown[/COLOR] has won the Wooden Spoon. - Teams in [I]italics[/I] are conference champions.[/B] Notes One game, just a couple notes. PHI jumps to the top of the East on PPG basis, but only by a whisker (and they're behind SKC on points). As for DCU, this game was not a must win. A draw or a win would have been a big help, but DCU can afford this loss. The team has 5 games left and stands on 38 points. I believe out of its last 5 games DCU needs a minimum of 2 wins and 1 draw for 7 more points. That's still fully achievable. Lastly, I don't usually post the strength of schedule numbers in these small updates, but it's worth noting DCU's current ranking ... Code: [B][U]Remaining Strength of Schedule[/U] (Factoring Opponent Home and Away Performance) 01 CHV: 1.69 02 NYR: 1.50 03 HOU: 1.49 04 LAG: 1.47 06 RSL: 1.42 07 CHI: 1.38 05 POR: 1.37 08 CMB: 1.36 09 SJE: 1.36 10 PHI: 1.32 11 COL: 1.32 12 SKC: 1.21 13 VAN: 1.19 15 NER: 1.18 14 FCD: 1.16 16 TFC: 1.13 17 SEA: 1.09 18 DCU: 1.08[/B] For whatever it's worth, DCU currently has the easiest schedule in the league.
Re: ... Updoopdate ... of course it's still achievable, but 1.4 PPG (across their final 5 games) would be above their current 1.31 PPG average (through 29 games). 7 points from their final 5 games could be classified as over-achieving for DC this season. "easiest" and "busiest" league schedule. but the loss in game 29 dropped DC from 7th to 10th in the PPG table. and a loss in game 30 (at CLB on Sunday) could (of course depending on other results) drop them down to 12th. of course, they still have the game(s) in hand on most of their immediate/closed rivals for playoff spots, but the loss in game 29 puts extra pressure and urgency on each of the remaining five games for them.
Re: ... Updoopdate ... When the difference between 7th and 12th in PPG is just 0.12, and there are just 5 games left for DC, it basically makes no difference. The only thing it says is that you're not likely to make up points on those teams ahead of you, and that leaves NY as your only real concern if you're only aiming to just make the playoffs. If you're concerned about the seeding, then it's a little more important.
Re: ... Updoopdate ... Busiest is the big concern. If there's any reason DCU can't manage another 7 points, it's accumulated knocks and injuries coupled with not quite enough depth.
Re: ... Updoopdate ... It looked like DeRo picked up a knock, if he can't go the next few games I think DC are, wait for it..... TOAST!
Re: ... Updoopdate ... DeRo (and maybe some other guys) won't be available (very likely, depending on how his injury is treated) for DC's 10/12 game at VAN due to international duty on 10/11.
DC currently (as of 9/30/11) has more away wins (5) than VAN has home wins (4) this season. (Edit, DC's road PPG is 1.27, while VAN's home PPG is 1.31 currently.) as a slightly more on-topic item, I'm expecting a good bit of movement in the PPG table as a result of games on 10/1 and 10/2. having said/expected that, it is MLS so a good number of ties and very little table shuffling is also a very likely outcome from the next 9 games.
... Quick & Dirty Update ... Quick update between games ... Code: [B][U] GP GR W D L PTS PPG PRJ MPP SE# T# M# WS# HD# AD# CNF[/U] 01 LAG 30 04 17 10 03 61 2.03 69 73 13 -- -- -- ---- ---- W 02 SEA 30 04 15 09 06 54 1.80 61 66 06 -- -- -- ---- ---- W 03 RSL 30 04 15 06 09 51 1.70 58 63 03 -- -- -- ---- ---- W 04 FCD 30 04 13 07 10 46 1.53 52 58 -- 20 04 -- ---- ---- W 05 PHI 30 04 10 13 07 43 1.43 49 55 -- 17 07 -- 0.50 0.64 E 06 SKC 31 03 11 11 09 44 1.42 48 53 -- 15 06 -- 0.33 0.52 E 07 COL 31 03 10 12 09 42 1.35 46 51 -- 13 08 -- 1.00 1.18 W 08 HOU 32 02 10 13 09 43 1.34 46 49 -- 11 07 -- 1.00 1.28 E 09 CMB 31 03 11 08 12 41 1.32 45 50 -- 12 09 -- 1.33 1.52 E 10 DCU 29 05 09 11 09 38 1.31 45 53 -- 15 12 -- 1.40 1.51 E ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 NYR 30 04 08 15 07 39 1.30 44 51 -- 13 11 -- 1.50 1.64 E 12 POR 30 04 10 07 13 37 1.23 42 49 -- 11 13 01 2.00 2.14 W 13 CHI 31 03 07 16 08 37 1.19 41 46 -- 08 13 01 2.67 2.85 E 14 CHV 31 03 08 11 12 35 1.13 38 44 -- 06 15 03 ---- ---- W 15 SJE 30 04 06 13 11 31 1.03 35 43 -- 05 19 07 ---- ---- W 16 TFC 31 03 06 12 13 30 0.97 33 39 -- 01 20 08 ---- ---- E 17 NER 30 04 05 12 13 27 0.90 31 39 -- 01 23 11 ---- ---- E 18 VAN 29 05 04 10 15 22 0.76 26 37 -- -- -- 16 ---- ---- W[/b]
And if DC wins tomorrow, San Jose (edit) could be eliminated, too. Comes down to one of those multi-team tiebreakers. If Chivas loses AND DC wins, it also comes down to a multi-team tiebreaker, but Chivas could disappoint also.
... Untoaster Update ... Code: [B][U] GP GR W D L PTS PPG PRJ MPP SE# T# M# WS# HD# AD# CNF[/U] [COLOR="Blue"]01 LAG 31 03 18 10 03 64 2.06 70 73 10 -- -- -- ---- ---- W 02 SEA 31 03 16 09 06 57 1.84 63 66 03 -- -- -- ---- ---- W 03 RSL 31 03 15 06 10 51 1.65 56 60 -- -- -- -- ---- ---- W[/COLOR] 04 FCD 31 03 13 07 11 46 1.48 50 55 -- 16 04 -- ---- ---- W 05 PHI 30 04 10 13 07 43 1.43 49 55 -- 16 07 -- 0.50 0.64 E 06 COL 32 02 11 12 09 45 1.41 48 51 -- 12 05 -- 0.00 0.28 W 07 SKC 32 02 11 12 09 45 1.41 48 51 -- 12 05 -- 0.00 0.28 E 08 HOU 32 02 10 13 09 43 1.34 46 49 -- 10 07 -- 1.00 1.28 E 09 CMB 31 03 11 08 12 41 1.32 45 50 -- 11 09 -- 1.33 1.52 E 10 DCU 29 05 09 11 09 38 1.31 45 53 -- 14 12 -- 1.40 1.51 E ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 NYR 31 03 08 16 07 40 1.29 44 49 -- 10 10 -- 1.67 1.85 E 12 POR 30 04 10 07 13 37 1.23 42 49 -- 10 13 -- 2.00 2.14 W 13 CHI 31 03 07 16 08 37 1.19 41 46 -- 07 13 -- 2.67 2.85 E 14 CHV 31 03 08 11 12 35 1.13 38 44 -- 05 15 02 ---- ---- W 15 SJE 31 03 06 14 11 32 1.03 35 41 -- 02 18 05 ---- ---- W [COLOR="Gray"]16 TFC 32 02 06 13 13 31 0.97 33 37 -- -- -- 06 ---- ---- E 17 NER 31 03 05 12 14 27 0.87 30 36 -- -- -- 10 ---- ---- E 18 VAN 29 05 04 10 15 22 0.76 26 37 -- -- -- 15 ---- ---- W[/COLOR] Current AD-Baseline: 46 Unchanged since last update. Set by DCU’s 45 point, 1.31 PPG pace. [/B] Code: [B]GP = Games Played | GR = Games Remaining | PPG = Points Per Game MPP = Max Points Possible = PTS + (3 x GR) SE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1 M# = Magic Number = (11th Highest MPP) – PTS + 1 T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (10th Highest PTS) + 1 WS# = Wooden Spoon # = (18th Highest MPP) - PTS +1 HD# = Historical Despair Number = [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=24203471&postcount=1"]Full explanation[/URL] AD# = Actual Despair Number = [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=24203471&postcount=1"]Full explanation[/URL] - Sorted by PPG, then most GR, then alphabetical. - Teams in [COLOR="Gray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs. - Teams in [COLOR="Blue"]blue[/COLOR] have clinched a playoff spot. - Teams in [COLOR="Green"]green[/COLOR] are conference seeds. - Team in [COLOR="Brown"]brown[/COLOR] has won the Wooden Spoon. - Teams in [I]italics[/I] are conference champions.[/B] Notes First, I would like to point out that you can, in fact, untoast toast. Check out this marvel of modern technology! Second, keeping it quick: TFC and NER: It's official. Adios. RSL: No SS for you! SEA: Help me, Obi-Sounders Kenobi. You're my only SS hope. LAG: Oh, who are we kidding? LAG has the SS as good as won. Damn ... FCD: Shrug ... NYR: Can you feel the MetroStars Playoff Fever? HOU and SKC: Holding their ground. COL: Gaining some ground. Let's see, did I miss anything important? Oh, right ... CHI: Still toast.