The 2011 Table - Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Calculated Distortions [R]

Re: ... The East is The Beast Update ...

Are you putting blinders on and ignoring what is going on for the pure sake of extolling the virtue of your tragic numbers? Sure, a 2.5 PPG pace is not only hard but extremely unlikely, especially if you're looking at a team to have to keep that pace over a 10 game span. Yet once you're down to a mere four games all bets are off. If the Fire win the next 2 they will be in control of their destiny, finishing against DC and Columbus. Taking them seriously at that point will be kind of missing the signs that are present now. They play 3 teams fighting for the playoffs in those last 4 games: Houston, DC and Columbus. Whether you like it or not they are now in the playoff race, they may lose the next 2 and be out of it - but so can Columbus.

 

Re: ... The East is The Beast Update ...

"You must spread some reputation around..."

 

Re: ... The East is The Beast Update ...

FWIW, the Fire have been on a 2.57 PPG in their last seven games.

If they beat Houston, I think it's time to take them seriously.

 

Re: ... The East is The Beast Update ...

I have finally found your logical fallacy, according to you Chicago needs to win the next 2 games to no longer be toast (I believe "taken seriously" would no longer mean "toast"), but since we ALL know you can't untoast toast (physics/chemistry experts please chime in here, and time travel is not an option) then they can't be toast at the present. I think the only way for you to save face it to alter your analogy.

 

Re: ... The East is The Beast Update ...

You can untoast toast if you butter it, then tie it buttered-face-up onto the back of your cat. Push your cat off the counter, and the space-time rift that opens up while mother nature cannot decide which face should land on the floor will generate enough energy to return your bread to its uncooked state.

Knave's analogy is safe.

 

One problem for Klopas is the Open Cup final game on Tuesday. Klopas has already stated that because of that game he will have to rest a number of his regulars v. Houston on Saturday. Now that they've beaten RSL, I wonder if he'll stick to his guns re this plan, but that's what he was quoted as saying in one of those mlssoccer.com articles, I think on Monday. Houston at home is already a tough proposition, and playing a lot of reserves will make it even tougher.

 

Re: ... The East is The Beast Update ...

The Buttered Cat Paradox can only produce an anti-gravity effect, common knowledge.

 

Re: ... The East is The Beast Update ...

Anti-gravity doesn't require an immense generation of anti-laws-of-physics energy? Energy that could have other unintended, anti-physics consequences?

C'mon, follow the logic. Otherwise, I wanna see the lab reports before I rely on common knowledge

 

Re: ... The East is The Beast Update ...

They lost the last game in '09 right? They would have made the playoffs if they won that game. If the Fire get to that point it will be even more improbable then what Dallas did based on your graph.

 

Re: ... Janus-Faced Edition ...

To follow up on this: I worked out the scenario using the same parameters as BHTC Mike set out for Toronto, and it looks like the Revs are still technically in the race.

NE beat DC twice, drew and lost to NY for 7 points.
NY split with DC, drew and beat NE for 7 points.
DC lost to NE twice, and split with NY for 3 points.

So NE and NY are tied, and it goes to goal differential, and despite the current 20 goal gap between them, NE could still theoretically match or beat NY on GD, so NE is still technically alive.

 

Barring some sort of miraculous scoring explosion from Columbus in their last two games, SKC locks up a playoff spot this weekend if these things happen:

SKC beats SJE to get to 47 points
DCU beats CMB, leaving them with a MPP of 47
VAN draws POR, leaving them with a MPP of 47
HOU draws CHI, leaving them with a MPP or 46

In the case of a 3-way tie for 10th place at 47, the season played out like this: (w-d-l=pts)

SKC 3-0-1=9
CMB 2-0-2=6
POR 1-0-3=4

This eliminates Portland. SKC and CMB split their series, so we move on to Goal Differential. As of this morning, SKC has a GD of 7, while CMB's is -4. The above scenario will only make the gap larger.

Whew. Assuming this is right, I'm glad to finally find a scenario that effectively locks SKC in the playoffs, I was beginning to think one would never emerge.....

 

Re: ... Janus-Faced Edition ...

I think we can call them "in the toaster".

And Yilmaz, SKC advances in your scenario due to having the most points in that H2H match up with Columbus and Portland. You don't have to re-do the H2H with just SKC and Columbus.

 

Re: ... Janus-Faced Edition ...

You are right, but it also shows that SKC effectively holds the tiebreak over CMB if Portland isn't involved. Because Vancouver could have a late-season new-building surge and win that game. Theoretically.

 

I don't think this is correct. In multi-way tiebreakers, I don't think that teams are "dropped off the bottom."

 

You are right. I was trying to kill two explanatory birds with one stone, and got ahead of myself. SKC advances out of the 3-way tiebreak. SKC also wins the head-to-head with Columbus, providing CMB doesn't score about 13 more goals than SKC over their last two games.

 

Well, if the correction to my earlier incorrect thought process was accurate, SKC would advance on the three way H2H, then Columbus and Portland would go through the process again. In that case, they tie on the first tiebreaker as they are both 1W-0D-1L in H2H. The second tiebreaker is GD in all games, and Columbus is currently leading -4 to Portland's -7...

 

Yes, but in my hypothetical situation, they'd be duking it out for 11th place.....

 

I think the bunching of the Eastern teams, coupled with their poor records relative to the West creates one of those situations where treating the league as a single table with regards to Knave's "Despair" numbers doesn't work as expected. The chances of the Western teams to make the playoffs via the Wildcards I think is pretty accurate, but since the Eastern conference Top-3 remain largely "in play", that Chicago's chances are being a little understated.

If Chicago wins this weekend, I think they are untoasted, especially when the top Eastern teams keep beating each other up. If I was Chicago, I would continue to go all out to make the playoffs, and save the starting XI by fielding a reserve squad for the USOC final.

 

Not that you're biased or anything.

USOC Final is an easy path to CCL and will soften the blow of them not making the playoffs, if that comes to pass.

 

Unless there is a realistic scenario where the 8th-place team in the West can get into the leaguewide top 10 (this would require both Chivas USA and San Jose to get to the top 10), it's perfectly fine to look at the single table when analyzing playoff qualification (though not when analyzing seeding).