The 2011 Table - Magic Numbers, Tragic Numbers & Other Calculated Distortions [R]

Re: ... Untoaster Update ...

Along these lines I'd add the CMB-DCU game. There are actually no bad results for NYR in the CMB-DCU game. Some results are better than others, but which result is best is actually debatable. The mere fact that the 9th and 10th place teams are going to take points from each other one way or another is enough to help NYR.

 

... The Road to Toastville Edition ...

Code:

[B][U]         GP  GR  W   D   L   PTS PPG   PRJ MPP SE# T#  M#  WS# HD#   AD#   CNF[/U]
[COLOR="Blue"]01  LAG  31  03  18  10  03  64  2.06  70  73  10  --  --  --  ----  ----  W
02  SEA  31  03  16  09  06  57  1.84  63  66  03  --  --  --  ----  ----  W
03  RSL  31  03  15  06  10  51  1.65  56  60  --  --  --  --  ----  ----  W[/COLOR]
04  FCD  31  03  13  07  11  46  1.48  50  55  --  16  04  --  ----  ----  W
05  PHI  31  03  10  14  07  44  1.42  48  53  --  14  06  --  0.33  0.29  E
06  SKC  32  02  11  12  09  45  1.41  48  51  --  12  05  --  ----  ----  E
07  COL  32  02  11  12  09  45  1.41  48  51  --  12  05  --  ----  ----  W
08  CMB  32  02  12  08  12  44  1.38  47  50  --  11  06  --  0.50  0.44  E
09  HOU  32  02  10  13  09  43  1.34  46  49  --  10  07  --  1.00  0.94  E
10  NYR  31  03  08  16  07  40  1.29  44  49  --  10  10  --  1.67  1.62  E
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
11  POR  31  03  11  07  13  40  1.29  44  49  --  10  10  --  1.67  1.62  W
12  DCU  30  04  09  11  10  38  1.27  43  50  --  11  12  --  1.75  1.72  E
13  CHI  31  03  07  16  08  37  1.19  41  46  --  07  13  --  2.67  2.62  E
14  CHV  32  02  08  12  12  36  1.13  38  42  --  03  14  --  ----  ----  W
15  SJE  31  03  06  14  11  32  1.03  35  41  --  02  18  03  ----  ----  W
[COLOR="Gray"]16  TFC  32  02  06  13  13  31  0.97  33  37  --  --  --  04  ----  ----  E
17  NER  31  03  05  12  14  27  0.87  30  36  --  --  --  08  ----  ----  E
18  VAN  30  04  04  10  16  22  0.73  25  34  --  --  --  13  ----  ----  W[/COLOR]

Current AD-Baseline: 45 

Down 1 since last update.
Set by NYR’s 44 point, 1.29 PPG pace. [/B]

Code:

[B]GP = Games Played | GR = Games Remaining | PPG = Points Per Game
MPP = Max Points Possible = PTS + (3 x GR)
SE# = SS Elimination Number = MPP - (1st Place PTS) + 1 
M# = Magic Number = (11th Highest MPP) – PTS + 1
T# = Tragic Number = MPP – (10th Highest PTS) + 1
WS# = Wooden Spoon # = (18th Highest MPP) - PTS +1
HD# = Historical Despair Number = [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=24203471&postcount=1"]Full explanation[/URL]
AD# = Actual Despair Number = [URL="https://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=24203471&postcount=1"]Full explanation[/URL]

- Sorted by PPG, then most GR, then MLS Tiebreakers.
- Teams in [COLOR="Gray"]gray[/COLOR] have been eliminated from the playoffs.
- Teams in [COLOR="Blue"]blue[/COLOR] have clinched a playoff spot.
- Teams in [COLOR="Green"]green[/COLOR] are conference seeds.
- Team in [COLOR="Brown"]brown[/COLOR] has won the Wooden Spoon.
- Teams in [I]italics[/I] are conference champions.[/B]

Code:

[B][U]Pace: Deviation from 3 at home, 1 on the road[/U]

[U]         GP  PTS HG  AG  HW  HD  HL  AW  AD  AL  PCE[/U]
01  LAG  31  64  16  15  11  05  00  07  05  03  01
02  SEA  31  57  15  16  08  04  03  08  05  03  -04
03  RSL  31  51  16  15  10  03  03  05  03  07  -12
04  FCD  31  46  16  15  08  03  05  05  04  06  -17
05  PHI  31  44  16  15  07  08  01  03  06  06  -19
06  SKC  32  45  16  16  08  06  02  03  06  07  -19
07  COL  32  45  16  16  06  08  02  05  04  07  -19
08  DCU  30  38  14  16  04  07  03  05  04  07  -20
09  NYR  31  40  15  16  06  06  03  02  10  04  -21
10  HOU  32  43  16  16  09  04  03  01  09  06  -21
11  CMB  32  44  17  15  09  05  03  03  03  09  -22
12  POR  31  40  16  15  09  03  04  02  04  09  -23
13  CHI  31  37  15  16  05  08  02  02  08  06  -24
14  CHV  32  36  16  16  05  05  06  03  07  06  -28
15  SJE  31  32  16  15  04  08  04  02  06  07  -31
16  TFC  32  31  16  16  05  07  04  01  06  09  -33
17  NER  31  27  15  16  04  06  05  01  06  09  -34
18  VAN  30  22  14  16  04  05  05  00  05  11  -36

Sorted by PCE, then fewest GP, then PPG.[/B]

Code:

[B][U]PPG: Home and Away[/U]

[U]         HPPG             APPG[/U]
01  LAG  2.38    01  SEA  1.81
02  RSL  2.06    02  LAG  1.73
03  HOU  1.94    03  FCD  1.27
04  CMB  1.88    04  RSL  1.20
05  POR  1.88    05  DCU  1.19
06  SKC  1.88    06  COL  1.19
07  SEA  1.87    07  CHV  1.00
08  PHI  1.81    08  PHI  1.00
09  FCD  1.69    09  NYR  1.00
10  COL  1.63    10  SKC  0.94
11  NYR  1.60    11  CHI  0.88
12  CHI  1.53    12  CMB  0.80
13  TFC  1.38    13  SJE  0.80
14  DCU  1.36    14  HOU  0.75
15  SJE  1.25    15  POR  0.67
16  CHV  1.25    16  NER  0.56
17  VAN  1.21    17  TFC  0.56
18  NER  1.20    18  VAN  0.31[/B]

Code:

[B][U]Remaining League Schedule[/U]

[U]      WK30  WK31  WK32[/U]
CHI:  ----   FCD   CMB
      ----  @DCU  ----
CMB:  ----  @NER  @CHI
COL:  ----   RSL  @VAN
CHV:  ----  @LAG   SEA
DCU:  ----  @VAN   POR
      ----   CHI   SKC
FCD:  ----  @CHI  @SJE
      ----   VAN  ----
HOU:  ----  @POR   LAG
LAG:  @NYR   CHV  @HOU
NER:   SJE   CMB  @TFC
NYR:   LAG  @SKC   PHI
PHI:  @SEA   TFC  @NYR
POR:  ----   HOU  @DCU
      ----  ----  @RSL
RSL:  @VAN  @COL   POR
SEA:   PHI   SJE  @CHV
SJE:  @NER  @SEA   FCD
SKC:  ----   NYR  @DCU
TFC:  ----  @PHI   NER
VAN:   RSL   DCU   COL
      ----  @FCD  ----[/B]

Code:

[B][U]Remaining Strength of Schedule[/U]
(Factoring Opponent Home and Away Performance)

01  CHV:  2.09
02  HOU:  1.80
03  NYR:  1.54
04  LAG:  1.51
06  SJE:  1.44
07  POR:  1.39
05  CMB:  1.37
08  PHI:  1.34
09  VAN:  1.32
10  COL:  1.21
11  TFC:  1.19
12  SKC:  1.18
13  RSL:  1.17
15  CHI:  1.14
14  FCD:  1.03
16  SEA:  1.02
17  NER:  0.99
18  DCU:  0.92[/B]

Code:

[B][U]MLS Numbers Resources[/U]

[URL="http://www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html"]SportsClubStats[/URL] [URL="http://playoffstatus.com/mls/mls.html"]PlayoffStatus[/URL]
[URL="http://usasoccer.blogspot.com/"]Climbing The Ladder[/URL]
[URL="http://www.settingthetable.info/home.asp"]Setting The Table[/URL]
[URL="http://www.mlssoccer.com/playoffstandings"]MLSSoccer's Playoff Table[/URL]
[URL="http://www.mlssoccer.com/competition-rules-and-regulations"]MLS Playoff Tiebreakers[/URL]
[URL="http://soccernet.espn.go.com/tables?league=usa.1&cc=5901"]ESPN Soccernet's MLS Table[/URL] 

Please suggest others.[/B]

Notes

That ass you see is NYR backing into the 10th playoff spot.

This was not NYR's doing. Their draw didn't count for much. For their current position, NYR can thank DCU's failure against CMB and the fact that they own the tiebreaker against POR. (From here on out MLS tiebreakers are the third and final ranking criteria on the main table.) NYR is in prime position to make the playoffs. MLS HQ must be thrilled.

If NYR is in prime position for the playoffs, then so is POR. Both teams have identical records. And sitting at 40 points with three games left, the playoffs should be theirs if they want it. Unless ...

Yes, unless. Unless the bar for playoff entrance goes above 45 points. And looking at the table, seeing how many points top 10 teams already have, seeing how many games they all have left (two or three), there's a real possibility that the bar for playoff entrance is going to be a bit higher than expected. Yes, it took a 1 point downturn this week. But it could go up again by a point or two just as fast. (That said, good chance HOU keeps the bar low -- maybe even at 43 points.)

What about CHV and PHI? That game really didn't matter. Both teams got one point. And that point changed nothing for either side. CHV might as well already be eliminated from playoff contention. PHI needs just a couple more points to all but clinch a playoff spot.

So what about DCU? They were the big downward movers today. Yeah, they really blew it. Squandered a lead and everything. The own-goal made it special.

Does this mean DCU is toast? They've got 4 games left. The numbers they need to get back into contention aren't that off the wall. Heck, they're barely worse than NYR and POR and those two teams are in great position! Indeed, their numbers are a whole lot better than CHI's numbers and people were swearing just recently on this thread that CHI had a realistic playoff shot. Oh, and look at DCU's schedule! Easiest of the entire league. So DCU is in great shape, right? Not toast at all, right? After three years of playoff drought, the rain is finally coming, right? Right ...

DCU's not toast. But DCU is definitely on its way to becoming toast. Can they turn it around? You mean numerically? Sure, they can. Why not?

This is my team and I'll tell you why not. Without DeRo, we're not even in the conversation. With DeRo, DCU still doesn't have the depth or the quality. DCU may get another result or two. They may push along into the final week. But let's get real here: it just ain't happening for DCU.

What's gonna happen is the road to Toastville -- you know that place just down the way from the town of Starting Ngwenya.

... four f'cking years in a row ...

 

Spent a few minutes mulling tomorrow's LAG@NYR game. I don't think there's been a game this season with bigger playoff implications. If NYR loses, I don't know if they'd recover. They'd probably have to win both of their remaining games @SKC and PHI. Those teams will be vying for top 3 status, if not 1st in the East, so neither of those games will be easy. Without a viable NYR, the playoff race could wrap up pretty quickly.

 

I just noticed something about the schedule that may have a very large effect on the playoff race. October 22-23 is the last weekend of the MLS regular season. There's only 1 game on Sunday the 23rd. But it's a doozy: LAG@HOU.

So here's the thing. LAG will know 100% for certain before that game whether or not it is already the SS winner. In fact, LAG will likely know a week or two before that final weekend - all that's needed is a SEA loss, an LAG win, or an LAG draw plus a SEA draw. And LAG plays CHV the week before, so there's your likely win. That means, there's an extremely strong likelihood that LAG won't have anything at all to play for in that last game. It will have already won everything it can in the regular season.

Is Bruce really going to take his first team halfway across the country to face a team who will probably have everything to play for, and who will be looking to do whatever is necessary to get a win? I doubt it. Likelihood is, in this final game of the MLS regular season HOU is going to beat a bunch of LAG reserves into the ground.

So here I've been looking at the schedule, but not looking at the actual calendar, and I've been thinking there's a chance HOU loses its last two games and ends the season at 43 points. Now I'm thinking that's not likely to happen. More likely is that HOU is going to end the season with no less than 46 points.