For guys like Mendez and Efra it's not what they do on the ball that will determine their ceiling, it's off the ball. On the ball, they're elite on a global scale but if you can't physically keep up with the european pros and you are not active enough off the ball it doesn't matter. For me 25% of the stuff that matters is their actual ball skills while the other 75% comprises soccer IQ, defensive ability (depending on position), communication, and work ethic.
Who are the best athletes in this group? By best athlete, I mean those at the Pulisic, Adams, Davies, McKennie level. Thanks again.
That is what I said. Work ethic and competitive drive is a big factor and that is hard to read. Leaving the familiar and challenging yourself to get better in Germany/Holland is a good indicator for me. Switching national teams at the first sign of adversity is not a good indicator in my book. For decades, Americans came out of NCAA programs and ended up in Europe and had to learn tactical angles and defense and much of the stuff people ding youth players for. It can be learned, as many guys have done. One reason the DA players recently have excelled right away in the U19 Bundesliga and U23 Prem 2, is that most are learning the basics of tactics now and can pick things up very fast even when explained in a foreign language. You can take a kid that works hard, is unafraid to get stuck in, closes angles great and he will never hit the pass Mendez gave Weah against Nigeria. He might never come good, but that is why Ajax are interested in him. The upside is just so much higher than the worker bee.
When looking at the kids who are abnormally athletic I would pick out Bryang Kayo, Kobe Hernandez-Foster, Nati Clarke, Konrad De La Fuente, Tanner Tessmann, and Ricardo Pepi. Athleticism definitely helps but the most important factor for a player's success rate is soccer IQ and work rate. However, if you significantly lack athleticism that can hurt. Evan Rotundo has the IQ and the technical skills to succeed but will likely bust because of his complete lack of athleticism. Too many people lately have undervalued how much athleticism is still a factor in today's game. If you are slow/weak then you will need to be good enough that a manager is willing to build their team around you and honestly, most of our 10's are not that good. The only position you can really get away with being a terrible athlete is the 6/8 and that is if you have a dominating CM next to you. Alex Mendez in my opinion will be a bust for that reason. You have to be able to impact the game without the ball on both offense and defense and that comes down to mainly soccer IQ but also athleticism and effort. If you aren't able to physically keep up then you probably won't make it. If Mendez can develop that aspect to his game then he would become a champions league level player, without it he will be an Eredivise player. But there are ways to work around not being athletic and it is having an abnormally high soccer IQ or work rate. The IQ is given away by how you move and if you are smart enough in your movement then you can bypass not being a fast/strong player. David Silva and Andrea Pirlo should come to mind for this when thinking of soccer IQ. Paxton Pomykal is someone I think of when I think of worth rate carrying a lack of standout athleticism. In the games I have watched of Alex Mendez over the last year (and Efra as well), he has neither which is why I think he will be a bust.
Just to clarify, "Bust" means not playing with Barcelona or not playing in a Top 5 league? That is a high bar of course. Many would see "bust" and think Zelalem (still an MLS player) or Adu (made lots of money and has 17 caps). Whereas others would see the word, "Bust" and think Louis Gil or Josh Perez. Damarcus Beasley was basically, just an Eredivisie Player...
I don't disagree. However, the reason why I am skeptical of Mendez as a strong USMNT-level option is because: a) I don't think he has the speed / athleticism to play winger for the national team compared to the options we have now and will have. b) Which leaves him as his only real option as the more attacking 8/10, or a traditional 10, or perhaps a second striker. c) While that position has been a bit itinerant recently, with Lletget, Holmes, a miscast McKennie and Pulisic all taking turns ... in the long run, you've got prospects like Reyna, Pomykal, Aaronson and Ledezma all as options in addition to the above. And all four of those guys can absolutely hit that pass. They all are more athletic than Mendez and three of the four clearly have a stronger all around work rate (and maybe all four). It's a ton of competition for him. But agree, he does have some skills that most can't replicate. I hope he breaks through, because his distance shot is something that is incredibly valuable (and something only Reyna has of that group above). But those other guys are pretty prospects for the same position in my eyes.
Yeah, bust is too strong. I don't even think "just an MLS player" is a bust. Zelalem doesn't play in MLS; that's effectively a bust. I can see Mendez being Sasha or Benny -- good enough to be a playmaker in a second tier league in Europe or a playmaker in MLS. I don't think he's going to end up with no playing time in leagues like that unless he never leaves Ajax.
Bust for the new generation for me means not reaching their ceiling or the USMNT. Mendez ceiling is at the least a bundesliga level player and USMNT lock. Any less is a bust for me.
Despite this list being a critique/troll of the manager at the time (especially when it comes to Wes’s placement) there were some decent calls along with the usual busts.
I think this is much more the list I **wanted** to make. Much more driven on higher upside. But between my lack of viewing of several of these players, and my lack of confidence about projectability of some of them, my list ended up much more conservative. It's an interesting debate between the two angles. The USMNT standard is going to be pretty high going forward, IMO, so the upside really matters. But the % of players who are the top players at 15-16 don't end up being tops at 25 at nearly the rate of older players.
the USMNT is going to be completely different in the mid 2020's compared to 2015-2020 regardless of who is the coach. There is so much more quality coming through the system now compared to before. It doesn't look that way at the mens side but right now they are in limbo with the lost generation nearing the end of their effect and the 10-month DA gen starting to rise up and replace them.
Here is a more in depth breakdown of my prospect rankings. It is over 6700 characters long so be aware when diving in, it will take some time to read. https://chasingacup.com/ranking-the-top-50-american-under-20-talents/
Very impressive! Should do USWNT in future for female prospects. But you probably have so much on your hands just doing for men. Also, your article helps me get a better picture of where we stand on the men's side. Haven't caught up with them since I gave up on them the last couple of years. Got me excited when seeing them winning couple of years ago.
Great article! "Undersized", seemed to be used quite a bit. Only Weah was described as oversized and possibly not as good when he won't be. It does seem like some of the greatest players were undersized as kids then had a growth spurt. Also fascinating that I can name quite a few players that didn't make the list. There seems to be quite a depth of talent. I doubt players like Hoffman, Busio, Haak, Benalcazar would have been left off a Top 50 list in the recent past. What are the chances for the USA with Sanogo?
He was supposed to be at the March U-17 camp, but it was cancelled. That team had a few newer interesting names that I had heard about. The U-17 roster is one of the few that hasn't been suspended until 2021, so hopefully we'll see a camp sometime in the next few months when soccer resumes.
I think the chances for the US with Sanogo for this U17 cycle are decent. He'd almost certainly be our top striker option and has already accepted one US U17 call-up (cancelled due to pandemic) and seems very pro-US on his Instagram. He actually gave this very article a shoutout yesterday. He's posted stuff in which it has just the US flag without Ivory Coast. Long-term, the two potential competitors are Germany and Ivory Coast. He's not eligible for Germany yet, but they brought him into one U16 camp like what the USSF did with Jesus Ferreira a few times, so the DFB is clearly aware of him. His father Boubacar is a former Ivorian international so they obviously have a real chance if their federation puts in the effort. Hopefully he can start for us this U17 cycle and get provisionally tied in WC qualifying. If so, he probably wouldn't have German citizenship by then and thus they'd be out of the running for good (need to have citizenship at the time of provisional cap-tie, why Diego Fagundez can never play for the USMNT). None of us have seen him play beyond highlights, but the fact remains he has more G+A than any 2004 at U17 Bundesliga level or higher except Dortmund's Youssoufa Moukoko. Also scored in a friendly match against Brondby IF's first team.
To be fair, we have a lot of tiny 5’6-5’8 players. Or striker under 6ft. That’s definitely undersized
I think these are the two main points. I feel very hesitant to have any type of strong opinion on this guy because none of us know if he's any good. He has great numbers, but he might play a game that doesn't translate to the pros. We don't know. He wouldn't be the first to have great youth numbers, but not have real top level soccer talent. At the same time, his accolades are very impressive, and its worth considering that this guy might be a big time prospect that could be a key part of this U-17 cycle. I think its good that he was called into the last U-17 camp, he's willing to play for the USA, and now he can be evaluated against the domestic options. Worst case scenario, he's not good, and USSF gave him a runout to see if the hype was for real.
Tbh I think we can get by just fine with some of those “tiny” players if they prove to be the best athletes for their size. If we get the Darren Sproles/Mugsy Bogues types, they will be legit. But if we get the kids who end up getting pushed around in college or when they try to go pro, they have no chance.
A common success story in soccer is the little kid who learns to play with bigger kids by out thinking them and having better technical skills. Then that little kid has a growth spurt, and is now as big (or bigger), but still smarter with elite technical skills. Kind of the opposite of the big, strong kid that bullies everyone until the other kids grow up.
Minor quibble. Work rate is a type of athleticism. Second minor quibble. Pomykal has the best lateral speed of this group (compare to Wes). His side to side defensive coverage was a huge difference maker in the U20 WC. He is not, however, at the level of Adams.
I think a lot of why US players tend to be undersized is reflection of the other options here. If you're a tall and athletic kid you play basketball. If you're a big athletic kid, you play football. To succeed in either of those sports when you're undersized you have to be absurdly, ludicrously athletic. That's simply not true for soccer. Size helps, size isn't a bad thing, but it's not like basketball. How many great basketball players have their been below 5'8? None. How many genuinely great soccer players....Messi, Hazard, Kante, Mata, Silva, Scholes. Heck, I just looked and Sergio Aguero is only 5'8! I would have thought he was 5'10 or 5'11. Some of those guys are obviously incredibly "athletic", whatever that means, but several of them are legendarily unathletic. In Europe or South America, where Soccer is the biggest and often only "money sport", most kids are gonna play soccer regardless. In the US, kids and their parents are going to make a decision what to focus on, and that's going to be based partially on comparative advantage. So the small kids are more likely to play soccer here and our top tier of players is going to end up smaller than other countries. This is something we're going to have to live with for a long time.
This is why, if soccer ever gets popular, I think the US can greatly improve the talent level. If even some sub-6' point guards and defensive backs start playing soccer, there's a large increase in dedicated, athletic players.