http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2003/ The post draw will be on their website live in about 20 minutes- Anyone care who isn't already in Louisville?
Gambling is all good, and horses are allright, but ultimately, the Derby is beautiful spectacle of ritualized whiskey abuse and pretty girls in floppy hats.
...and even floppier inhibitions! Ok, here are the post positions for KD129: 1. Supah Blitz 2. Brancusi 3. Sir Cherokee 4. Atswhatimtalknbout 5. Peace Rules 6. Funny Cide 7. Offlee Wild 8. Buddy Gil 9. Indian Express 10. Lone Star Sky 11. Domestic Dispute 12. Empire Maker 13. Eye of the Tiger 14. Ten Cents a Shine 15. Outta Here 16. Ten Most Wanted 17. Scrimshaw Bullsh|t analysis to follow...
Bad draw for Scrimshaw. Althoug wasn't Fusaichi Pegasus way on the outside too? Is Atswhatimtalknbout too close to the rail? If they're over recent condition problems, Empire Maker and Buddy Gill could be the 1-2 on the morning line... No Kafwain?
Now that I think about it, that's a pretty good draw for Indian Express, too. Horses that place or show in the Santa Anita Derby (IE finsihed 2nd to Buddy Gil) usally pay on the first Saturday in May.
(Yes i know I'm quoting myself!) FP started in the 15th spot of 19 in 200, while Monarcos was 17th of 18 in 2001. War Emblem started 5th last year. This means Scrimshaw might not be screwed yet.
Yeah, Kafwain hurt a tendon somehow during his last work... Seeing that Atswhablahblah and Sir Cherokee are dead closers, I think they're both ok down inside. As it turns out, all three closers are down inside (including Supah Blitz). Perhaps they get caught in an early "closers duel", fighting for position in the the back of the pack early in the race? Just checked the DRF website. Empire Maker is a ridiculous 6-5. Then it's Ten Most Wanted at 6-1, followed by Peace Rules and Buddy Gil at 8-1. Everyone else is 12-1 or higher... bizzare. I'd never take 6-5 on a Derby horse, especially one with a known foot bruise, minor or not. Ten Most Wanted is a logical upsetter, but will he be worth it at only 6-1. I think he'll be closer to 4-1 or 5-1 as Empire Maker's odds have to creep up from that morning line...
Outside's not so bad. You know he's going to stay out of trouble as far as bumping is concerned, and as long as he can avoid being 6-wide at the first turn, he should be ok. I actually like Scrimshaw a little bit. He just had that throat surgery before the Lexington to help him breathe better, and he looked great winning. Don't know if you remember, but Alysheba had a similar throat surgery before he ran in the Blue Grass back in 1987. He won that but got disqualified, then won the Derby. Scrimshaw's worth a look. I can't believe he's only 15-1 on the morning line. They must think he's got a decent shot, too...
He's an incredible bargain at 15-1. I imagine he's gotta get back down to the 6-, 7-1 range. There's a lot of those entries in the 12-1 range that'll drop by Saturday.
I think Scrimshaw will settle in between 15-1 and 20-1 (or possibly higher). I haven't heard any of the usual talking heads giving him much of a chance, basically saying that his Lexington time was slow, etc. But other than Sir Cherokee's Arkansas Derby, all the prep times were slow except for the Wood (run on a wet track), so you can't really use that as a factor. I envision Ten Most Wanted and Atswhatimtalknbout getting bet down a bit, Empire Maker to be around 8-5, and the rest to stay over 10-1. Buddy Gil and Peace Rules will be around 11-1 or so, followed by Sir Cherokee, Funny Cide and Indian Express in the mid to high teens. Then Scrimshaw and Brancusi. The others could all be over 30-1...
Well, the only thing I called right was Brancusi setting the pace early and then burning off . . . . . Missed three different trifectas by one horse on Oaks Day, but I didn't really gamble on the Derby outside of the pools that were running at my Derby party.
My betting on Saturday was all about Scrimshaw and Indian Express, which is why I don't go to the track much...