Extra-time in the Euro Finals between Italy and England was pretty humdrum. The best thing about it was we get to talk again how soccer should adapt the tennis tiebreak method of taking turns. As (hopefully) most of you know, in a tennis tiebreaker, one player serves the first point, then the second player serves two points in a row, and from then on they keep alternating serving two points in a row. The idea is to minimize the advantage of going first. In today's final, Italy went first. England gained the advantage when Italy had their 2nd PK saved, but look at the situation after the 3rd Round, after Rashford missed, giving back the advantage. In the tennis tiebreak method, England's 4th PK taker, Sancho, would have gone next with a chance to put England ahead. Instead, Italy regained the advantage of going first. Bernardeschi got to put Italy ahead and England was playing catch up again, with Sancho under pressure to keep England level. (He didn't) Of course this was a men's tournament, not women's, but we can and should still talk about it in terms of the women's game. FIFA gave the tennis tiebreak method (sometimes called ABBA, as opposed to the traditional AB AB) a trial a few years ago. As far as I know the first time it was tried in a match between senior teams was at Algarve in the placement match between Canada and Sweden. The goalkeepers were Stephanie Labbé and Hedvig Lindahl. I'll try to find the video for it Found it (for you Stephanie Labbé and Hedvig Lindahl fans): Algarve 2019, PKs start about at about 2:53:00 of the video
I posted a poll on the tennis tiebreak method in the Euros forum if anyone's interested. You can click on the arrow thingy totake you to the poll
@JanBalk made a nice find. Barcelona's Gerard Piqué criticized the unfairness of the current system If soccer ever makes the switch, instead of calling them PKs perhaps we can call 'em PiQués? Or we can call it the Algarve System (or Algarve Endgame), after the Canada / Sweden match. I wonder if Algarve can keep using the tennis tiebreak method (ABBA) and make it a tradition? Or, this might be too optimistic, whether a confederation like UEFA can adopt it for their women's continental finals like the women's Euros?
I prefer the MLS shootout. Gives goalkeeper a chance and takes skills on both sides to score and prevent the shot.
I'm trying to find a way we can better represent the PK shootout using the tennis-tiebreak / ABBA method. My graphic design skills are virtually non-existent and these tables may not mean much without some explanation, but I'm going to show what I'm working on if anybody's interested. First, the PKs that started it all (technically,, Kicks From the Penalty Mark), Sweden vs Canada in the Bronze-Medal match at Algarve 2019... Let's see if I can even figure out how to upload the table... In the tennis tiebreak system, one player serves for the first point, but then the 2nd player serves twice in a row ;and after that the players take turns, each serving twice in a row. That's what happens in the ABBA system for taking PKs. Instead of alternating AB AB; they go in the order AB BA AB BA. Like Dancing Queens I suppose.
whew... on this end, it looks like the table uploaded. So, now what happens in hypothetical Italy vs England PKs using the tennis tiebreak system (ABBA)? Italy gave up the advantage of going first when their 2nd PK, Belotti's PK, was saved. England then went ahead when Maguire converted his PK. Bonucci then converted Italy's 3rd PK to momentarily level the score 2-2, but then Rashford missed his PK failing to keep England ahead. Let's freeze at this moment to see the difference between the traditional AB AB system and the tennis tiebreak ABBA method. At the Euros, Italy automatically regained the advantage of going first after Rashford's miss. Bernardeschi stepped up with the score level and put Italy ahead, forcing England's Sancho to make his PK just to catch up. But under ABBA, Sancho would immediately follow Rashford with the chance to put England ahead and force Italy to catch up. So in the hypothetical ABBA shootout, that's why I put a ?? mark by Sancho and Bernardeschi's PK, because under ABBA, they'd be switching roles in who shoots first
If we use ABBA team A has the advantage of shooting first in round 1, 3 and the most important round 5 where the players have the biggest pressure. So I would expect that with ABBA the team shooting first will have still an advantage. In tennis the player who returns at the first point in tiebreak will have the setpoint at 6:5 if the points go according to serve. I doubt that it would been more likely for Sancho to score if he had to shoot immediately after the Rashford miss. The negative psychological effect should be bigger if you have no break between a miss of your teammate and your own penalty kick.
I think your point is at least plausible, that immediately following your teammate's miss may make it a little more likely that you miss. The question is, is that effect greater than the pressure of having to catch up again when you let the opponent kick again and convert (as they would roughly 80% of the time)? We have a demonstrated, documented effect of the advantage of going first and the disadvantage of playing catch-up. I don't doubt there are other smaller psychological currents and under-currents going on, but we have no reason to think they're as significant as the big one. As for shooting first in the 5th set of PKs still giving an advantage to the team which originally goes first, I agree. When we make the shootout 6 PKs for each side instead of 5 then, Comrade, our Revolution will be complete