Well yeah, we’ve shit on the Kurds so many times. H Bush with his “rise up against Saddam” then leaving them hanging ‘literally’ Was particularly bad.
We'll see where it all goes. There is always a "honeymoon moment" when this type of thing happens. As bad of a guy Assad is/was, he kept state institutions somewhat intact, albeit leading a failed or a rump state. But if the rebels prove that they can also manage to administer the country and uphold state institutions, cast aside some of that Al-Nusra/Al-Qaeda ideology and be pragmatic, then all the power to them, and hopefully Syrians can be enjoy a better political, economic future. Short of that, and absence of a strong central state, Syria runs the risk of becoming another Libya or Sudan. It may become a fractured area and esentially cease to exist as a state. This will be particularly bad for the countries surrounding it. Jordan in particular is extremely vulnerable already.
I too am terrified. But let's give Syria its honeymoon. We'll start in on the doom and gloom in earnest tomorrow.
They had few places to get them from and no way to get them there. Back-of-the-envelope estimates by ex-military guys early this week were 10k trained infantry - not militia - to keep him and Maher as governors of Damascus and Latakia respectively and 30k to roll HTS back to Hama's outskirts. Hezbollah could have provided 3-4k in company-level units but the IRGC would have had to provide everyone and everything else - C3, EW, transport, logistics, etc. - themselves. It was too late They did make some efforts earlier in the week, despatching two airplane loads of men to Syria but the IAF buzzed them and they turned back. Then there was the little matter of Assad having put an awful lot of his efforts into showing Tehran how unreliable he could be, working towards a rapprochement with the Gulf States in particular and succeeding in excluding Iran from the economy's commanding heights. Actions have consequences and all that, only for both of them. Couldn't have happened to a nicer bunch of guys.
Jordan has managed to keep their heads above water and stay out of the mess that is the Middle East. It doesn’t take much though to force internal shit stirring.
Iran and Hezbollah were never going to be able to sustain the regime, given current state of affairs. Short of sending a huge army and esentially become an occupying power, which would have turned it to Iran's Vietnam and probably not lead to a favorable outcome, it was simply not possible. It only succeeded 10 years ago when Iran sent some advisors/IRGC and Hezbollah providing the manpower, to lead the Syrian army (incompetent as it was) because there was still an inherent will among the Syrian army officers to quell the rebels. This time not only was there no competence, there simply was no will. Especially given the dire situation they were in under Assad, which governed a rump state that was dependant on Russia and Iran.
Thank you for your takes on this, which are always well measured. As you said, we'll see where it all goes. Fingers crossed.
As Father Sullivan SJ taught us back in the (not very) Good Old Days "'Nietzsche argued 'hope in reality is the worst of all evils because it prolongs the torments of man' now get back to work boys because there's another 50 years of this ahead of you. Whether that's if you're lucky or unlucky, depends on you." Now you know why the Irish are called the Calvinists of Catholicism
Yeah thats true, but we have to see how events unfold. We don't know yet what is going to become of this new reality. It could be highly volatile/violent, leading to another wave of refugees. Not long ago these rebel factions were a bunch gangs killing each other in Idlib. Can they run a state? Only time will tell.
Looks like we might get some cheap natural gas out of this one 🚨🇶🇦🇹🇷 Now that Assad has fallen, there is no political obstacle to building the Qatar-Turkiye gas pipeline. The planned pipeline, which runs through Syria, is meant to provide Europe with an alternative to Russian gas. pic.twitter.com/rdLisNQ4jF— NewRulesGeopolitics (@NewRulesGeo) December 8, 2024
Assad apparently is in Moscow per RIA sources. Considering RIA is a Kremlin mouthpiece he is in Moscow Anyway once again the tankies are proven to be so freaking stupid. Russian Syrian adventure ends in disaster and Assad fled like the lion he is Russian soldiers are surrounded, big amounts of Russian tanks, jets, gear were captured
Russian state media says Assad is in Moscow and that Russia is "in dialogue" with "the armed opposition".
TASS claims “Russian officials are in contact with representatives of the armed Syrian opposition, whose leaders have guaranteed the safety of Russian military bases and diplomatic institutions on the territory of Syria." SOP for the diplomatic institutions but the bases part is disappointing. Jolani likely calculates keeping the bases (or dangling the promise of that) gives him some leverage against Ankara and that the Russians are in no position to bargain. They'll offer him a lot in return. Hard to blame him and the old diplomatic adage of "punish A, forgive B, ignore C" will likely be his or any provisional government's policy. Iran is surely A but he may regret forgiving Russia instead of the Gulf states. The Kremlin will not give up seeking to advance its interests and those aren't likely to be positive.
I read that a lot of the Syrians who fled are looking to come back now that Assad is gone. That should make the Europeans happy. That said, there were Iranians who thought the same thing when the Shah was ousted. It did not turn out to be the revolution they were looking for.
Maybe? A number if the OSINT accounts I follow say HTS is Islamist, but mire in line width Erdogan than al Qaeda or Taliban. The claim is that the al Qaeda ties was note of convenience because they were able to provide arms and funds to fight Assad. Time will tell, of course, but none of Syria’s neighbors want an al Qaeda kinked regime next door.