From a strategic point of view yes-- those three will be jurors. No good will come of making/allowing them to feel slighted. From an ethical point of view, who knows? Its a game with ever changing collective ethos and unyielding pressure on individual ethics. Whats "right" in October may be irrelevant in December... The obvious next play is for the "other five" to arrange to split their votes 3-Yul, 2-Johnathan. Assuming Johnathan and Yul vote together for Adam or Ozzy, they will then force the Idol out and have a 50-50 shot of taking Yul's chosen final two opponent out. Everyone else is in a position to be willing to go final two with at least one of the others to win, and has a further 3-1 shot to get rid of the biggest challenge threat-- Ozzy-- or Johnathan. Whether they have the sense and oganizational skills to see this and put it together is unclear-- but Yul is by no means in the clear yet, and there's still time to nullify the idol. The weird thing is, if Jonathan gets put out, Parvati becomes the second place favorite...
I don't see this happening at all. There is no "other five". The Aitu 4 isn't breaking up. They are solid. Yul isn't voting for Ozzy, and nobody really cares about Adam. If Jonathan was Yul's chosen F2 opponent, he wouldn't have been talking about voting him out this week. It wouldn't make any sense for Aitu to break up until the F4. If they make it to the point where it is Aitu + Jon, then Ozzy, Becky and Sundra can take out Jon. I really don't predict Jon making past 5th, unless he wins II. And in the case of the F4 being Aitu, it almost seems as though whoever would be in the F2 with Yul would have a shot at winning anyways. Yul is seen as the puppetmaster. He'll have plenty of votes against him if he goes up against someone like Becky or Sundra. And Adam and Parvati have no chance. I see the next few weeks going Adam, Parvati and Jon - in that order. After that, every Aitu for themselves.
you know, I really think yul, ozzy, becky and sundra are each very likely to do the honorable thing. I don't see any of them taking jonathan or parvatie to the final two, I think they would each take someonee they think deserves it. and I don't see parvati being a good final two candiate. I'd go so far as to say if she makes it the final two, she wins $1 million. here's my reasons: 1) practically the entire jury will be made up of people from her alliance 2) she didn't really piss any of them off ... adam and nate were calling the shots, so she's reasonably clean on their dismissals 3) people would be likely to play the ol' 'grudging respect' card. that's how Chris won a few seasons ago. people gave him credit for sticking around even though the odds were stacked against him. that said, I can't see her making it that far. she's too dumb, lazy and inept in challenges. adam couldn't win in the same scenario becuase the other person could rightly say he was responsible for all of them getting voted off. I think Yul beats becky or sundra BECAUSE he was the puppet master. he could rightly say 'what have they done?' he played the game and I think people will respect that. I can see ozzy beating him. the thing with the jury is, after a few weeks or days of living the (relatively speaking) good life with hot food, showers, a bed, etc. ... they seem to calm down. the emotion of their boot has worn off. that might also play to yul's advantage -- people might be better able to look at his situation logically and not emotionally. generally speaking the more deserving of the two seems to win the final two (they don't always make it there, but you know ...)
I wouldn't be so sure with this group of idiots. They seem to vote on emotion, not any type of strategy. And after watching Nate on the Early show, he still seems delusional about what is going on. I can't see them rewarding Yul the way they should for playing the game, I see them being petty.
yeah, I see your point and it very well could be right. there's been a lot of petty stuff going on and people, for the most part, seem to vote with their heads for the $1 million. I just see it as a possibility.
Totally and then at tribal council they have the guts to call him out and call him a snake and all that.
I don't think Yul was ever serious about taking Jonathan to the final. Now that he's served his purpose, the only question is whether or not he goes before or after Adam and Parvati. It will be strangely sad to see him leave Out of the other four, Ozzy and Yul are more deserving, but Ozzy will probably go as soon as he loses an Immunity challenge in the top 4. He's always been a bit of an outsider and is seen as a threat I don't think there will be any lasting resentment on the jury towards Yul; he is pretty well liked even by his enemies. I think the "We'll only vote for you if Jonathan goes before us" line is just a desperation move that will never come to fruition
I agree that Yul will probably be fine with the jury, and if not he's a lawyer so I'm sure he can talk his way out of trouble. of course ... Ozzy is probably a safe bet to win all the immunity challenges in the final four. there's nothing he's not good at. and I'm not sure he's the first boot. I mean, Sundra and Becky are complete mysteries. When's Sundra ever shown on TV? Like I had said earlier, I could see these four doing the honorable thing with the votes. And because of that I could see them saying Ozzy deserves it more than Sundra (and Becky, but Yul is tight there so who knows?). I'm just not assuming that Ozzy will go ... but here's a question: has anybody EVER been as much of a foregone conclusion to be in the final two like Yul is now? the only people I could think of were Colby in Australia and Brian in Thailand. I'm not saying he's guaranteed the spot, but everybody (on here and on the island) seems to be acting like it's inevitable.
Ozzy is the key, it was he who basically stood up and answered the "do we have to feed them?" question, he said "nope", then he went silent. He created a confrontation, then sat back quietly while Jonathan and Yul took a verbal beating. Also, they didn't necessarily "not feed" the others. They cooked the fish and then ate, they didn't hide anything, they didn't exclude them, the others just sat and napped and when they noticed it was dinner time, the food was gone. Parvarti is still flirting away as a strategy, the winks at Nate and the suck up to Yul, or attempt. Next up is either Adam or Jonathan. However Becky might start a move going now, Yul and his statements about "when I get final two" etc Becky might be able to maneuver Yul right out of the game, hide the fact that he will be voted on, get him to secretly give the idol to someone else, then have him blindsided in a vote. It looks like he has to have the idol on him at the vote or he can't use it. If it looks like a coup is coming against one of his "four" he might loan them the idol, then get blindsided. I think playing the idol did two things: - took all motivation and hope away from Candace going to EI - showed the other 3 Jonathan was right when they doubted him.
i'm not sure Candace ever looked for the idol. I think she mentioned earlier she thought it had been found.
I sort of got that impression as well, after I thought initially that the idol could be played to save whoever was voted off after the fact. Anyone know which it is? If it is the former, then why would Jonathan switch when it was 5-4, since Yul would have had to guess who to keep safe before the vote
Hard to say exactly, but the wording at TC to me, indicates the person has to have it in their possession at the vote conclusion, maybe Yul could slip it to someone. Anyway, somehow Jonathan lives on, but he blew it earlier, when he jumped back to Yul's side. At that point, he knew Yul had the idol and knew Yul and knew Nate were going to be the vote getters. He jumped ship making it Nate the voted off person. He could have voted against Yul, thereby forcing out the idol and getting rid of Nate AND keeping Adam, Parvarti and Candace on his side. He's then in a 4-4 run-off and he has to hope "his" side can win the next vote, and he's into the final 4. Now, he has no chance. My money is on Ozzy/Becky in the final 2.
you have to have the idol in your possession to play it. yul can't pass it to ozzy after votes are read, for example. that makes it a risky move. because if yul gives it to Ozzy BEFORE TC (which he'd have to for ozzy to be able to use it) he'd better hope the votes go that way. because if it was a fake and the votes go against Yul, he'd be SOL. for example.
So the word on the street is a Final 3, not two. This could throw a major wrench into this game. I think it helps both Becky and Sundra tremendously.
I'm not talking from any insider knowledge. I think its mainly speculation from both the jury starting early with Brad and knowing that the final episode is on the 17th. There are still 5 people left and it seems, only two shows. Something seems to be up.
The seventeenth would normally be a double show, so that would bring it to two. However we know they cannot always be trusted to do what they have done before...
So how thorougly did Ozzy dominate that immunity challenge last night? I think the rest of them made a strategic mistake in not getting rid of Adam when they had the opportunity. They can get rid of Jonathan any time, since he's on his own and nobody trusts him, but now they've given an opportunity for Adam and Poverty to keep chipping away at the alliance. They may have decided to get rid of Jonathan because camp was so much more enjoyable without him there, but that's short sighted.
I don't know, I'm kind of split on that. Jonathan is more of a threat that Adam or Parvati in my opinion. He is certaintly more crafty and I think more of an individual immunity threat than either Adam or Parviti (last IC and RC not withstanding). He (Jon) even said on the Early Show today that he would have switched again. I think the previews for next week were a misdirect. I really don't see the Aitu 4 breaking up before the F4. And for Becky, Sundra and Ozzy it was more strategic. Everyone knows Jon is the best person for Yul to take to the F2. So for them, it made sense to protect themselves. I know Jon had saved them once before, but, he also left them out to dry once before, so I don't think that Aitu owed him anything.
Yea but Johnathan has nobody on his side, whereas Adam has that bimbo with him. It's a shame they didn't vote Adam out, he is awefully annoying. Ozzy is freaking incredible in those challenges. How many times has he won a challenge this season?
well, the thing about getting rid of jonathan .... he's the only one out there that has shown the least bit of strategic inititiave. I mean, what's adam or parvati going to think of to topple an alliance? so I can see where they were coming from in a way. still, I would've axed adam first. I wonde if the previews for next week or true or a red herring? is there a divide in the yul/ozzy alliance?
Even if Ozzy doesn't want to totally betray his alliance, he could at least go for a 3-3 tie so that Adam gets voted out but Yul loses the Idol
Too many times when an alliance delays its plans, it ends up falling apart. By keeping Adam and Parvati around, those two now have two possible strategies. First they could try to convince two of the Aitus that the other two have a firm final 2 alliance. i.e. they convince Sundra and Ozzy that Yul & Becky are too tight, so they need to vote off Becky. The other strategy is to get Yul to think they are doing the the first strategy, and cause him to turn on one of his allies before they turn on him. If they can get Yul to mistrust Ozzy, then Yul also has a motive to boot Ozzy to eliminate an immunity threat. I won't be surprised at all to see one of Adam/Parvati in the F4.
that's absolutely right, noah. that's how chris won a few months ago. the women kept putting it off to vote him off and he ended up snagging a couple of immunities and won it. also, jenna morasca did the same thing. she was kinda on the outs (but still with a fighting chance) but she went and won the final two immunities and rob cesternino was axed. the stranger, I thought of that possibility myself. but the hard part there is why would adam and parvati go for it? they don't gain anything because Adam is still gone. Ozzy loses because he betrayed the other three and he'll be down 3-2. of course, he's such a huge immunity threat that he could be banking on that. but it's pretty risky. I think yul is untouchable to the final four, but I COULD see a 3-1 vote against him at that point. and think about it ... Noah's right in that Adam or Parvati could be final four. and if they make it there, it's a short hop to the final two. Could adam or parvati take down Yul or Ozzy? maybe, since the jury will be stacked with their former tribe mates. they'd have the underdog card to play, which always seems to do well in the final vote. the alliance isn't out of the woods yet and like Noah said, you delay and you fall apart. it's gonna be a fun run to the finish line, folks.
This week's TV Guide had an interview with Mark Burnett, and here is what he said about the format of the season finale: [result]Five players get to the final night, and 3 will be voted on by the 9-member jury. Therefore, a tie is possible. But he didn't reveal how it might be broken if that happens.[/result]