I guess we'll have to wait to see if that was the dumbest thing Candice could have done or the smartest thing. She could have waited it out until the merge and played both sides. Now she has four people that absolutely hate her. Jonathan has a lot of work to do. I don't think it was a good decision on his part - he panicked when Candice made her choice. In all my years of watching Survivor, I don't think I've ever disliked a tribe more than this Raro tribe. Not one redeamable person in the whole lot (Rebecca being the closest). I also don't think I've ever liked a tribe like I do Aitu.
agreed about the love-hate. but here's a couple of thoughts: correct me if I'm wrong, but this sets up a 10-person jury, right? it was six on six, 12 people left, two in the finals. so that either sets us up for the first tie vote in survivor history or like suggested maybe the final three go to the finals in front of a nine person jury. candice making the move wasn't that bad. she had enough loyal friends over to make the risk seem worth it. but jonathan? cut his neck. Adam, as stupid of a lunk as he is, nailed it -- he has nowhere to go. his old tribe won't take him back. what is it with candice? i mean, billy was in love with her. Jonathan followed her onto the plank. we've always run a survivor pool at work and I've never won the damn thing. not really come close. this time I got yul and I've been feeling good all season. but now ... I mean, where does he stand? there's one of the black and one of the asian women on the evil tribe. could they be swayed back to their orginal alliance and give yul's gang hope? one good thing to come out of this is that it gives Ozzy some standing. he's a good guy, a tough competitior and it sucked to hear them talk of him being disposable. this may have helped him out. and what of a merge? with the jury loophole being tossed out way, everything is fair game. what about that twist for next week? what's in the bottle? I haven't enjoyed an episode of survivor this much since Johnny Fairplay told us his grandmother was dead.
Even that could make for a 3-3-3 tie. I'm thinking somewhere down the line somebody gets either voted off the jury or whoever is the first to go of the F3 doesn't get to be on the jury. We'll see how the move pans out. She has 4 people that hate her. Like I said before assuming a merge is coming, she could have waited it out a few more days before joining up them - and that would have saved her from the extreme hate she is going to have to deal with now. I think Nate and Rebecca could be swayed - they have to see what is going on in front of them (even though it seems as though Jonathan is the odd man out right now). They'd be stupid not to take one of the white people out. But, I'm wondering if they are going to have a merge. It wouldn't be the first time and I think that would work out better for Aitu's survival. I love Ozzy. He is one of the physically best players in memory. If the tribes do merge and he makes it I can see Ozzy and Yul taking turns winning Individual Immunity. I have no idea what is in the bottle. Can't wait for next week. Agreed. Its been awhile since I've enjoyed a season of Survivor this much. I think its been since All-Stars.
I don't think Nate can be swayed. he's too tight with Adam. Plus, the way he was harping on traitors in regards to jonathan ... I just don't see him flipping. I think the women are more likely, especially since the previews said one of them is nothing how tight Candance and Adam are. Toss Nate into that and it's not hard to see the alliance within the alliance. I could see the women bailing. god, I hope they do.
I'm fearing an "America Votes" thing as a tiebreaker with a 10-person jury. Dial 1-866-IDOLS-01, or 1-866-IDOLS-02. One unforeseen thing that could have happened with them being offered the chance to "mutiny" was that one team could have forced a merge right there, by having all members mutiny, leaving one tribe empty. It could be a good idea for a tribe with a numbers advantage, but who knows how the producers would react.
I hope America doesn't get to vote. In a compitition like this, where so much of what goes on happens off camera, I don't think its fair. I wonder what would have happened in that case? I guess thats why they did it now - both tribes had 6 so that really wasn't a possibility.
Pretty good show tonight. I know all of the players have talked about not seeing race since the original teams were divided, but surely Nate sees that he's in the midst of 4 of the original 5 caucasian team members? I knew they still had too many people on the show, but I was too dense to guess that the bottle had the "vote another one out" message in it.
Nate should see more immediately that he and Jenny were the only ones who voted for Jonathan, so he knows he's the odd man out now. He may want to try to flip to the other tribe -- then again, they're so close at this point that he won't be able to break in there either. That was a good twist. This has been a pretty good season for twists to keep things interesting.
I think the merge is coming, however Jeff made a comment at TC about everyone talking about the merge, but with this show, you never know, there may not be a merge, or it may be now. I found that interesting. Nate should be worried, he is almost useless in challenges based on who's left and the longer Jonathan stays (nate's first mistake) the more valuable he becomes with his working around camp. I thought he was going to be a gonner after the compass challenge, with his arguing over the coordinates (and he was wrong), then snapping back at others. That tribe is NOT a team yet, though they might become one now. Next up for them is either Jonathan or Nate, if it goes to a merge, buy buy Jonathan, unless the other tribe decides to try and break up an alliance, remember Yul has the idol, so if one of his tribe is picked post merge, he can pass off the idol and the #2 vote getter is gone, which would be whoever his tribe of 4 votes for. With that vote of 2 message, sure would have been rough if the other tribe lost
Jonathan has made mistakes in all three challenges since he made the switch - couldn't wrap up the cannon ball challenge, couldn't dig well in the compass challenge, didn't swim particularly fast in the other challenge. And now he looks to have life again - amazing.
Conspiracy theory: There were two bottles, a different one intended for each team should they have lost. Also, could they have found 5 more irritating White people? Parvati gets a pass based on looks, but the rest of them bother me more each week
That thought crossed my mind too... also a strong three person alliance could cross into another tribe, provide the mother of all swing votes, and pick off members of the other tribe pre-merge while leaving a depleted minority tribe behind... Only thing is I don't believe there is any such thing. Reason I came here today is to make my "alliances are stupid argument" again in the light of last installment's evidence. Here was a tribe with a supposedly strong agreement going which was joined by two turncoats and promptly started voting its own out-- the last one without even any time to work up a rationale to explain it to themselves, and WITH a nascent agreement to take someone else entirely next... 80% of the people ever voted off after the first three or four episodes of a season thought they were protected by an agreement. When we see an alliance "go all the way to the final five/three/two" we are interpreting the evidence of what didn't happen as the evidence of something that did. That "alliance" just happened to be the one which was not pulled apart by the pressures of the game, not the one which held together against them IMHO-- we are putting the cart before the horse conceptually.
I thought the same thing about the bottles. Candace I HATE. I really do. Adam I HATE. I really do. Jonathan is a dumbass. Parvati is a stupid lunk. I don't like them either. I so love seeing Candace lose. and what was that BS she was crying about on Exile Island? How she said people she thought were her friends would keep sending her there? They thought you were their friends but you mutinied? The gall of the muitnieer complaining about friends not being loyal. The stupid b!!tch.
So is it too early to predict a winner? So much depends on the alliances and challenges, but based on strength, intelligence, likability, and possession of the Hidden Immunity Idol, Yul has got to be the favorite right now. I'm not even sure who would be second
Yul was the favorite. but he's going into the merge with his tribe down 5-4. I would say he's a top target this week thought the immunity idol give's him a one week pass. If they survive this week, get down to 4-4 or switch somebody, then I would say he's a favorite. but right now ... hell, I'd say Adam has a better chance to win. I hate him and think it would suck beyond all belief ... but since he's got numbers I like his chances at this moment.
My prediction: merge this week (it was in our TV guide that they merge). Ozzy wins immunity, Yul gets "voted" off, but uses Idol. the 4 of them have it all planned out and they boot one of the other 5, either Candace or Adam. Then we are down to 4-4. Ozzy is super strong in the challenges. Anything involving swimming and he wins.
...or hanging on a pole! Jonathan has set himself up to be the all-time villain on Survivor with this move. It was the right one, but still . . . Getting as upset as Nate, Candace, and the rest seem to be is funny. Reminds me of what is perhaps a Cherokee story: "Often times young boys were sent from the village in search of a vision. This was the case of one particular young native boy. He started to go up to the top of a mountain in search of his vision. And as he climbed up the mountain, the air got cooler and cooler. And he came upon a snake laying in the path. The snake was shivering, and said to the boy. "Please help me. I can't move, I am so cold that I can no longer make it any further down the mountain." The boy said to the snake "No way! You're a snake, if I pick you up, you'll bite me!" The snake replied. "No, no I won't, I promise I won't bite you if you'll only pick me up and help get me down the mountain." So the young boy picked up the snake, put him in his shirt, and continued climbing to the top of the mountain in search of his vision. When he got back down to the bottom of the mountain, he reached in, took out the snake, and the snake bit the young boy. The boy replied to the snake "Hey! You bit me, you said that if I'd help you out, that you wouldn't bite me!" The snake replied "But you knew what I was when you picked me up!"
I dunno, Boston Rob set the bar awfully high on that one... hard to match Fairplay for grauitous sleaze, too. When is an alliance not an alliance? Between losing immunity and tribal council. But the people who were aware of the story blew it-- they needed to make sure Yul got the most votes, so he'd have to play the idol; with this much conniving you have to get both things out of this vote-- now Yul has a huge advantage... Great episode though-- no wonder they weren't so very involved in documenting Kao Boy's plotting for the earlier Council; they knew they had a better one coming.
Yul is one of my favorites now -- he showed his nerdy side off when he started talking about surface area and mass during the challenge, and ended with "and that's why elephants can't climb trees." A geek after my own heart.
And that is how you use the HII. Nice job Yul. Glad to see Nate gone. Loved his ranting in his exit interview. What does he have to be upset about? He was gunning for Jonathan the whole time. And isn't he the one that backstabbed Brad and Stephanie? What an idiot. Jonathan really didn't have much of a choice. He is the fifth member of each alliance, so he might as well join the guy with the idol. If he can win II at any point he may be able to get further. He is the perfect F2 partner. Everybody hates him.
that was SOOO great of an episode. I mean, i was cheering out loud for jonathan to do the right thing. and when nate's name came up ... man I let out a 'whoop.' it was the right thing to do for jonathan. and now he has a powerful card to play ... he's the only person there playing for second place. he can't win a million dollars and he knows it. like yul said, he wants to sit next to him in the final two. and the nerve of candace to b!tch about loyalty. and the other thing that pissed me off about the preview was the lazy bastards who have never made a fire or caught a fish complaining that the other people weren't feeding them. you want to eat, get off your ass and your boyfriends lap. adam and/or candace has to go next. break up that alliance. honestly, I'd vote candace off first becuase she's been MUCH better in challenges than Adam. What has adam done? candace is good in those challenges. I'd get her off, then Adam. man, I'm excited. damn, damn excited to see this play out.
good post. I was thinking the same thing -- don't get mad because you placed your trust in someone you knew was untrustworthy. you put it much better than me, though.
I also just want to say: jonathan ain't a villian to me. to me, he's a hero who saved the game and saved me from having to watch candace, adam or parvati win $1 million. I'll always love him for that.
Last night was almost as good as the "Mutiny" episode, and based on the previews, the fallout from Jonathan's betrayal may have a chance to top even that. I can't wait for more reaction from Candace and Adam I think the key for Yul was giving Jonathan the line about the final two. Otherwise, I bet Jonathan votes for Yul, still sending Nate home but depriving Yul of the idol